Free Week 7 Prediction: Trojans vs Flames Odds
Looking for Troy Trojans vs. Liberty Flames free picks? Week 7 betting sees the Troy Trojans taking on the Liberty Flames on Saturday, October 13 at Williams Stadium in Lynchburg, VA. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NCAA football season long so stay tuned for more FREE college football predictions like this Troy Liberty free pick.
College Football Handicapping: Week 7
(5-1) Troy Trojans vs. Liberty Flames (2-3)
Date: Saturday, October 13, 2018
Time: 2:00 pm EST
Venue: Williams Stadium, Lynchburg, VA
NCAA Football Spread: Troy -9
NCAA Betting Total: 66
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Troy and Liberty square off for the first time in their history, now that the Flames have arrived to FBS Division 1. The Independent Conference welcomed Liberty this season after 15 relatively successful years in the Big South.
The Trojans have reeled off five straight wins after their opening weekend loss to Boise State. One of those wins, of course, came against Nebraska back on September 15, and the momentum has continued to carry over.
The Liberty Flames have lost three of their last four games, as the defensive side of the ball continues to be an issue. Liberty has played New Mexico and New Mexico State on the road in their last two outings, and gave up 92 points combined.
It seemed like Troy was going to struggle this season when they got handed a 56 – 20 loss to open the season against Boise State. Suddenly, Troy has reeled off 5 straight wins, and the defense has certainly upped their game.
The Trojan defense was all over Georgia State this past weekend in Troy’s 37 – 20 win. Georgia State QB Dan Ellington has held to 20 of 36 passing for only one score, and also slowed him down in the running game as well. Ellington led all rushers with 59 yards in the game, and were held to 3 of 13 converting on third downs.
Kaleb Barker and Sawyer Smith continue to share time at QB for the Trojans, although Barker is still taking most of the snaps. Smith and Barker are extremely similar in nature, as both can toss the rock and tote the rock with ease. Barker had 5 carries for 111 yards, on top of going 9 for 10 passing with 136 yards and a score.
The Flames managed to escape Albuquerque with a 52 – 43 over the Lobos in week 5, but last weekend the Aggies had a field day with the Liberty defense in Las Cruses, NM. The Aggies QB threw for over 400 yards and 4 TDs, while Liberty QB Stephen Calvert let so many opportunities pass him by.
As bad as Liberty played on defense, they were actually within a TD of New Mexico State late, but another failed opportunity to make a comeback fell short. One thing we did see from Calvert last weekend was two rushing touchdowns, which is not usually part of his game.
Calvert did have two different receivers go over 100 yards in the 49 – 42 loss to New Mexico State. The junior out of Plantation, Florida needs to improve his completion percentage, however. Calvert is barely completing over 55% of his passes, despite the 12/4 TD to INT ratio.
Troy has so many weapons to account for, and each of their quarterbacks have no trouble moving the ball. This looks like another opportunity to invest in a team total, as Troy should have no issue finding space against Liberty’s defense.
NCAA Football Handicapping Trends
- Trojans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
- Trojans are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road games.
- Over is 6-1 in Trojans last 7 games overall.
- Flames are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 non-conference games.
- Over is 38-16 in Trojans last 54 non-conference games.
- Flames are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games overall.
Free Week 7 NCAA Football Pick
The play here will go towards the Troy team total, likely to be listed at 38. The Trojans should manage to score 40 points or more in this contest, although that total at 66 seems high.
4* Free NCAA Betting Pick: Troy is favored at -9 with a 66 on the total. Free ATS or O/U final score pick provided below!
As much as I would like to touch on that total, the 66 could be tricky because of Troy’s defense. Liberty should be able to move the ball and find success, but how much success will it take to hit a total near 70? It could be close to that, but Troy should have plenty of opportunity to score their points on the road.
My final score prediction would put the total over the number, but you can see why I like the team total instead. I expect 48, at least, from Troy.
Week 7 Free Score Prediction: Troy Trojans 48 – Liberty Flames 29
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