Free NCAA Pick: Troy vs. Duke Odds
Looking for Troy Trojans vs. Duke Blue Devils free NCAA 2023 Birmingham Bowl picks & NCAA odds? NCAA betting sees the Trojans taking on the Blue Devils on Saturday, December 23rd at the Protective Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NCAA handicapping picks all season long including all NCAA Bowl games so stay tuned for more FREE NCAA predictions like this Troy Duke matchup.
2023 NCAAF Handicapping Analysis: 76 Birmingham Bowl
(11-2) Troy Trojans vs. Duke Blue Devils (7-5)
Date: Saturday, December 23rd
Time: 12:00 ET
Venue: Protective Stadium, Birmingham, AL
76 Birmingham Bowl ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Troy -7 | Duke +7
Birmingham Bowl Moneyline Odds: Troy -300 | Duke +235
College Football Betting Total: O/U 44.5
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The 2023 Birmingham Bowl. These two haven’t met for nearly 10 years. They played a home and home series in 2013-2014. In 2013 Duke won 38-31, then they won again in 2014, 34-17. Those two matchups are the only two in their history.
Troy (winners of 5 bowl games in a row) comes into this matchup on the back of of back to back Sun Belt Championships. Duke comes in off an up and down 7-5 (4-4 ACC) season, looking to win a bowl game two years in a row. Saturday at Noon they’re playing for bragging rights in the Birmingham Bowl.
The Matchup: Troy hasn’t played an ACC team since 2016. (A 30-24 loss to Clemson). Duke comes in winners of it’s last 4 bowl games, and prior to their hot bowl streak of late the Dukies hadn’t won a bowl game since 1961 when they took our Arkansas in the Cotton Bowl.
There wasn’t a head-to-head matchup between Duke and Troy last season.
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Troy Trojans
In their most recent game, Troy had no problem taking down Appalachian State, as they went on to win by a score of 49-23.
Troy has gone into 10 games as the favorite this season and two games as the underdog. Their ATS record is currently 8-4.
This season, Troy has an over/under record of 5-7.
Their games have, on average, produced a combined total of 48.3 points, with the typical over/under line being 49 points.
Troy Trojans Stats
As they prepare to face the Duke, the Trojans’ offense is averaging 159.5 rushing yards per game and 4 yards per attempt.
Nationally, they are 52nd in rushing yards and 20th in passing yards, on an average of 267.1 yards per matchup. Troy has averaged 31.2 points per game so far. This figure places them 29th in the nation.
This season, the Trojans’ defense has allowed 103.8 rushing yards per contest, placing them 197th.
Opponents are averaging 202.9 passing yards, and opposing quarterbacks hold a passer rating of 80 when facing Troy. They currently hold the 93rd spot in NCAA points allowed.
The Trojans’ finished with 24 pass attempts vs. Appalachian State, accumulating 192 yards and one score.
In the rushing game, they averaged 7.7 yards per carry and notched five rushing touchdowns.
Duke Blue Devils
Heading into their matchup with Troy, the Blue Devils are looking to build on their most recent 30-19 win over Pittsburgh.
Duke has gone into six games as the favorite this season and four games as the underdog. Their ATS record is currently 5-5.
The average point total in Duke’s 12 games is currently 47.5 points per game.
This has led to an over/under record of 6-4 for the Blue Devils.
Duke Blue Devils Stats
The Blue Devils are currently ranked 66th in college football with 405 rushing attempts per game. In terms of rush yards, they are at 169.2 rushing yards per game, which is 60th in the nation.
Looking at their production in the passing game, they are averaging 27.3 attempts per game and gain an average of 181.3 passing yards. Overall, they hold the 55th spot with 27.8 points per game.
Through the air, the Blue Devils’ attempted 37 passes against Pittsburgh, gaining 248 yards and securing two scores. On the ground, they maintained an average of 2.8 yards per carry, resulting in one rushing touchdown.
The Blue Devils defense comes into the game with 27 sacks, and ranked 1st in QB hurries. In terms of points allowed, they are giving up 19.8 points per game (66th).
When it comes to defending the pass, they are ranked 63rd in the NCAA, allowing an average of 208.2 passing yards per game.
Additionally, Duke’s run defense comes in allowing 146.8 rushing yards per contest.
If you’re into betting on the Birmingham Bowl game, I’ve got you covered with some useful stats below.
Troy Trojans vs. Duke Blue Devils NCAA Football Betting Trends
- The Trojans are 4-1 in their last five games as a favorite.
- Conversely, the Blue Devils are 2-3 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
- Also, the Trojans are 9-1 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Blue Devils have gone 4-6 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Trojans’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 2-1.
- The Blue Devils’ have an over/under record of 2-1 in their last 3 games at home.
Troy vs. Duke Line Movement
Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Trojans | -225 | -300 | -5.5 | -7 |
Blue Devils | +185 | +235 | +5.5 | +7 |
4* Free 2023 76 Birmingham Bowl NCAA Betting Prediction: Troy -7
If you’re looking to stick to the moneyline in this matchup, my pick bet is on Troy to pick up the win over Duke. Troy just comes in the hotter team in my mind. They’ve won 10 consecutive games since suffering back-to-back losses to K-State, 42-13, and James Madison, 16-14.
I worry about what kind of team will take the field for Duke. Check the latest transfer portal news for this one. Also, Interim coach Trooper Taylor will coach Duke in this one. Mike Elko has bolted for greener pastures as he’s left to take over the Texas A&M program.
Duke has struggled recently, going 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games and 1-4 SU when playing as the underdog. On the flip side, Troy has been strong, with an 8-1 ATS record in their last 9 games and a perfect 10-0 SU in their last 10 games.
They’ve also performed well as favorites, boasting a 7-1 ATS record.
Troy had a solid performance in their last game, especially in the running game against Appalachian State. I believe they’ll maintain that form this week, so I’m betting on Troy to cover before kickoff.
How I see it, this is a safe bet, given I also see Troy going on to cover the spread. My money is on Troy to cover the spread at -7 for this matchup.
Games featuring Troy this season have averaged 48.3 points in total. Considering the over/under line at 44.5, I’m backing the over. My model has this one at 48.
Now, if you want to know about the Over/Under trends for this matchup, here’s what you need to know. Duke’s games have mostly gone OVER, with 5 out of their last 6 hitting the OVER.
Similarly, Troy has seen 4 out of their last 5 games going OVER. Plus, in the past, Duke’s bowl games as underdogs and Troy’s neutral site games as favorites have consistently gone OVER.
2023 Birmingham Bowl Handicapping
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Troy Trojans vs. Duke Blue Devils NCAA Betting Tweet Of The Day
There’s winning title games and then there is dominating title games 😏 pic.twitter.com/XAc4laMB1S
— Troy Trojans Football 8x⚔️ (@TroyTrojansFB) December 11, 2023
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