Free NCAA Football Prediction: Toledo vs. Long Island Odds
Looking for Toledo Rockets vs. Long Island Sharks free picks? College football betting sees the Rockets taking on the Sharks on Thursday, September 1, 2022, at Glass Bowl in Toledo, Ohio. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NCAA football season long so stay tuned for more FREE college football game predictions like this Toledo Long Island free pick.
College Football Handicapping Analysis: Toledo Rockets vs. Long Island Sharks
Toledo Rockets (0-0) vs. Long Island Sharks (0-0)
Date: Thursday, September 1, 2022
Time: 7:00 pm EST
Venue: Glass Bowl , Toledo, Ohio
NCAA Football ATS Spread Odds: Toledo / Long Island (Bet Now!)
NCAA Football Moneyline Odds: Rockets / Sharks N/A
NCAA Betting Total Odds: Total O/U N/A
“Listen, here’s the thing. If you can’t spot the sucker in your first half hour at the table, then you ARE the sucker” – Rounders
Great bets aren’t always necessarily our winners. As long as we are getting the right value, our process will lead to good results and we’ll never be the sucker. I see value from a few angles in this Week 1 matchup. With that, let’s dive in.
Toledo Rockets
Toledo and coach Jason Candle kick off this season looking to finally cash in on a MAC title. Gone is bell-cow running back Bryant Koback but this offense will be led by returning starting QB Dequan Finn. This Rockets offense led the nation last season in TO’s at 7 and will feature a rotation of three backs, including Maryland transfer Peny Boone as the newest member of the triumvirate.
The Rockets were 10th in the country last season in Offensive Line Yards and return 4 out of 5 starters. With fresh legs and an experienced line, I expect Toledo to be efficient in the run game. Per recent reports, Toledo may be without LT Mitchell Berg and C Tyler Long for a significant amount of time. It will be something to keep an eye on this season.
Defensively, Toledo may pace the best of the best in the MAC. The Rockets have two bookend NFL talents in Jamal Hines and Desjuan Johnson that will allow them to bug opposing quarterbacks all season. Linebacker Dyontae Johnson also returns after posting a campaign of 8 sacks and an All-Mac Second Team honor. Toledo was 7th in the country last season in Defensive Success Rate and return 7 starters — the Rockets appear ready for takeoff.
Long Island Sharks
Wow, where do we start? Long Island went into last season having lost their coach to a resignation mere weeks before the season, an unsettled quarterback position and a dearth of talent. Enter 2022 and the Sharks look much different. Out is interim HC Jonathan Gill and in is former Texas A&M DB coach and Alabama analyst, Ron Cooper. He will be tasked with turning around this Sharks program that went 2-8 in 2021. At quarterback, out is Camden Orth and in is Derek Green, son of former NFL QB Trent Green. Running back Jonathan Debique was given preseason All-Conference nods.
Most sharks have multiple rows of teeth but this defense had zero last season. This defense allowed 35.4 points per game and have no pre-season all-NEC nominees, so this could be another rough season. Based on LIU’s Pythagorean Record, the Sharks (.133 win percentage) actually OUTPERFORMED expectations by 1 win, even with their abysmal supporting metrics.
NCAA Football Handicapping Trends
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toledo’s last 5 games
- Toledo is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
4* Free Toledo Rockets vs. Long Island Sharks NCAA Betting Final Analysis:
LIU is incredibly raw at this point. Even with an experienced HC, they just don’t have the dogs to hang with Toledo, considered by most to be the favorite in the MAC.
Toledo has a great defense and doesn’t turn the ball over often. Ball control will prevent gifting LIU short fields and will help Toledo finish drives. The only concern I have here is Toledo getting up early and resting the 1’s, maybe even the 2’s.
LIU will be playing starters all game as they try to get their best lineups game reps and that could lead to a backdoor cover on UT’s third stringers.
While the number hasn’t been published at the time of this writing, look for the over on the Rockets’ team total here. We can reduce our exposure to late backdoor covers and the game total if LIU contributes little to nothing.
I would also look for a 1H number on the Toledo team total. Barring an absolute monsoon that would deflate the tempo in this game, this is a great spot against an LIU team that allowed 52 ppg in non-conference games in 2021.
4* Free Toledo Rockets vs. Long Island Sharks NCAA Betting Pick: Rockets Team Total Over
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