Free NCAAF Pick: Longhorns vs. Bulldogs Odds
Looking for Texas Longhorns vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Free NCAA Week 9 picks & NCAA odds? NCAAF betting sees the Longhorns taking on the Bulldogs on 10/25 at Davis Wade Stadium, in Mississippi State. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all NCAA football matchups all season long so stay tuned for more FREE daily NCAAF predictions like this Longhorns Bulldogs free pick.
2025 NCAAF Handicapping – Texas Longhorns vs Mississippi State Bulldogs
(5-2) Texas Longhorns vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-3)
Date: Oct 25, 2025
Time: 4:15 PM ET
Venue: Davis Wade Stadium in Mississippi State, MS
NCAAF Moneyline Odds: Longhorns -252 | Bulldogs +204 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NCAAF Spread Betting Odds: Longhorns -6.5 | Bulldogs +6.5
NCAAF Football Gambling Total: O/U: 46.5
Here’s why I’m backing a Mississippi State ATS bet below in my Longhorns Bulldogs free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
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Longhorns vs. Bulldogs Gameday
It’s Week 9 of the 2025 college football season, and the Texas Longhorns head into Starkville to face the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Davis Wade Stadium.
Kickoff is set for 4:15 PM ET on SECN, and this one’s got all the makings of a gritty SEC showdown.
The Longhorns enter with a 5-2 record and a 2-1 mark in conference play.
They’re fresh off a grind-it-out 16-13 win over Kentucky — a game that showcased their toughness in close quarters.
Arch Manning continues to find his rhythm leading this offense, and the defense has carried plenty of the load.
Meanwhile, the Bulldogs sit at 4-3 and are still searching for their first SEC win of the year. They’ve dropped three straight, including a tough 23-21 loss to Florida last week.
Despite the skid, Mississippi State’s shown flashes of potential, especially at home, and they’ll be desperate to end this losing streak in front of the cowbell crowd.
Texas took last year’s matchup 35-13, and that score might still sting in Starkville.
This one has the feel of a classic SEC grinder — bruising defense, loud fans, and a few highlight-reel moments along the way.
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It’s Week 9 — Texas Longhorns vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs — and the pressure’s squarely on the Bulldogs to turn things around.
Texas Longhorns vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Odds & Last 5
Vegas leans Texas here, and rightfully so. The Longhorns are -262 on the moneyline and laying a 7-point spread, while the Bulldogs sit at +214 as home underdogs.
The total has hovered in the mid-50s, suggesting oddsmakers expect a balanced mix of offense and defense.
Texas has handled business lately, edging Kentucky last week and knocking off Oklahoma before that. Mississippi State, on the other hand, continues to flirt with victory but can’t seal it — dropping close ones to Florida and Texas A&M.
If the Bulldogs can finally execute in crunch time, this could be their breakthrough.
But if Texas controls the line of scrimmage early, it might be another long Saturday for the home team.
Bulldogs Stats
Mississippi State’s offense hasn’t been the issue. They’ve racked up 223 points — good for 35th nationally — with 1,594 passing yards (63rd) and 1,254 on the ground (45th). That balance has kept them competitive in most games.
Defensively, the Bulldogs have been opportunistic but inconsistent. They’ve allowed 142 points (72nd) but rank 11th in interceptions (10) and 7th in fumble recoveries (3). Their 10 sacks put them 19th overall — plenty of pressure but not always timely stops.
Quarterback Blake Shapen continues to lead the charge, posting 1,528 yards and 9 touchdowns. Running back Fluff Bothwell’s 465 yards and 6 TDs give the offense a punch, though his leg injury could limit the ground game.
Out wide, Brenen Thompson’s 533 receiving yards and 4 scores make him the clear go-to threat.
Recent results haven’t gone their way — narrow losses to Florida (23-21) and Texas A&M (31-9) overshadow early blowouts over Alcorn State (63-0) and Northern Illinois (38-10).
The potential’s there; execution just hasn’t followed.
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Longhorns Stats
Texas has been solid, if not spectacular, through seven games. They’ve scored 187 total points (53rd) but have leaned more on efficiency than explosiveness.
Their passing attack ranks 106th (1,242 yards), but that’s balanced by a strong defensive backbone.
Arch Manning has shown steady progress, throwing for 1,186 yards and 10 touchdowns against just three picks. He’s been calm under pressure, helping Texas grind out close wins against quality opponents.
Defensively, Texas has been elite. They rank 8th in sacks (21) and 9th in interceptions (8) — stats that tell you everything about their aggression and discipline.
Injuries could factor in this week, with CJ Baxter Jr. and Cole Hutson both questionable, but the Longhorns’ depth has held up so far.
Texas Longhorns vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs bottom line: The Bulldogs will come out swinging, but Texas has too much depth, too much defense, and a QB who knows how to win.
Texas Longhorns vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Football Betting Trends
- Texas is 23-3 straight-up in their last 26 games as favorites.
- Texas is 25-4 straight-up in their last 29 games after a win.
- Also, the Longhorns are 13-3 straight-up in their last 16 away games.
- Mississippi State is 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games as underdogs.
- Additionally, the Bulldogs are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games after a loss.
- Mississippi State is 22-7 on the over/under in their last 29 home games.
Longhorns Bulldogs Free Pick: Mississippi State +7
Here is my Bulldogs Longhorns free pick. Texas has looked solid overall, but their struggles on the road are becoming hard to ignore. With just a 1-2 record away from home, they’ve shown some inconsistency once they step outside of Austin.
Meanwhile, Mississippi State has been a bettor’s friend in the underdog role, covering in eight of their last 11 games when catching points.
That kind of resilience speaks volumes about their ability to stay competitive, even against more talented opponents.
Additionally, the Bulldogs tend to respond well after a loss, owning a 7-3 record against the spread in that situation. Their 3-1 home record this season reinforces the idea that Davis Wade Stadium provides a real edge.
Given Mississippi State’s strong home form and history of covering as underdogs, the Bulldogs are well-positioned to keep this one tight.
Ultimately, Texas may walk away with the win, but covering a full touchdown on the road won’t be easy.
With the crowd behind them and their defense showing fight, I’m backing Mississippi State +7 to get the job done against the spread.
Today’s NCAAF Free Pick
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NCAAF Betting Tweet Of The Day
The Dawgs Are Coming .
@SECNetwork | 3:15 PM #HailState pic.twitter.com/nWKar1ZGOr
— Mississippi State Football (@HailStateFB) October 20, 2025
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