Free NCAA Football Prediction: Texas vs. Iowa State Odds
Looking for Texas Longhorns vs. Iowa State Cyclones free picks? College football betting sees the Longhorns taking on the Cyclones on Saturday, October 15th, 2022, at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, TX. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NCAA football season long so stay tuned for more FREE college football game predictions like this Longhorns Cyclones free pick.
College Football Handicapping Analysis: Texas Longhorns vs. Iowa State Cyclones
Texas Longhorns (4-2) vs. Iowa State Cyclones (3-3)
Date: Saturday, October 15th, 2022
Time: 12:00 pm EST
Venue: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
NCAA Football ATS Spread Odds: Longhorns -17 / Cyclones +17 (Bet Now!)
NCAA Football Moneyline Odds: Texas -900 / Iowa State +570
NCAA Betting Total Odds: O/U 49
Texas is coming off an impressive, blowout win over Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry, while Iowa State is looking to get off the schneid after three straight losses to fall to 3-3.
Cue the, “Texas is back!” claims. They’re not undefeated, but Texas is ranked in the AP Top 25, and have won 4 of 6 to start the year. Compared to years past, this is the most “back” that Texas has been in quite some time. Hudson Card filled in admirably during Quinn Ewers’ injury, but Ewers is the hope of the program, for now.
They’ll look to continue their offensive barrage that saw them blowout Oklahoma 49-0 but the Cyclones’ 3-3-5 defense might provide some new challenges for Texas.
Speaking of Iowa State, it’s been a tale of two teams through the season’s first 6 games. After starting 3-0 and hearing Matt Campbell’s name floated out for the Nebraska job, the Cyclones have dropped 3 consecutive games. As it turns out, it’s difficult to win when you lose your starting QB, RB and TE to the NFL draft!
Iowa State has won the last three matchups between these two Big XII opponents and hope to continue their dominance on Saturday, albeit as a longshot dog.
Texas Longhorns
In recent years, the NFL draft community has preached against first round running backs, but Bijan Robinson could challenge that dogma. Robinson sees a lot of work, and he’s been productive to start the year, averaging 5.9 yards per carry and totaling 10 touchdowns through three games. The offensive line ranks in the top 25 in offensive line yards, and they rarely get stuffed (19th).
Texas distributes the ball equitably among their receiving options; three receivers have 24+ receptions and rank top-10 in offensive passing success rate. Iowa State has been just average in success rate against passes, but the Cyclones have limited explosive passing plays (5th).
Texas ranks 15th in the nation in offensive touchdown rate, scoring 6 on almost 44% of offensive drives. The unstoppable force meets the immovable object. Iowa State ranks top-20 in touchdown rate allowed (17.3%) so it’ll be interesting to see this game play out.
Defensively, the Longhorns have been stout, allowing under 19 ppg and rating well in the success rate department (19th). Texas gave Alabama their biggest test of the season and a large reason why is that their run defense is among the best in the country. They’ve been a little vulnerable to the explosive play but their success rate stands strong (9th).
Iowa State Cyclones
The three game losing streak the Cyclones currently hold is in large part due to the fact that they don’t score points. The defense has done their part, only allowing 18.3 ppg, but they’ve only scored 14.6 ppg over their last three games.
Iowa State throws about 60% of the time, but they’re not highly successful (67th) and show no explosiveness. Xavier Hutchinson is head and shoulders above his fellow pass catchers leading the Cyclones with 57 catches, 604 yards and 5 touchdowns. This week they’ll face Texas’ 42nd ranked defensive passing success rate.
I mentioned the 3-3-5 defense for Iowa State, primarily because they’ve had a lot of success against what have been prolific offenses. Kansas struggled to figure it out and only put up 14 after averaging 48.5 ppg in their first 4 games. Kansas State averaged 32.4 ppg leading up to Iowa State and then only managed 10 points. So clearly, the 3-3-5 stack has been a hard solve for coordinators and QBs.
It is notable however, that Kansas and Kansas State both had quite a bit of explosiveness in their profile, which ISU was able to snuff out. Texas on the other hand is less reliant on explosiveness and are much better in staying on schedule, so the context here is a tad different.
NCAA Football Handicapping Trends
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Iowa State’s last 5 games when playing Texas
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Iowa State’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Texas
- Texas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Texas’s last 5 games when playing Iowa State
4* Free Texas Longhorns vs. Iowa State Cyclones NCAA Betting Final Analysis:
Iowa State has yet to allow a team to beat them by 17 this year. Their three losses so far are by an average of 3.7 points. To take the points however, we have to have some scores out of the Iowa State offense which is a dubious proposition.
Neither team runs a fast pace and both sport attractive defensive numbers. Even though Sark will be the best offensive mind the Cyclones have seen all season, the past few weeks have served as proof that the ISU defense is for real.
Given the defensive success and ISU’s offensive ineptitude, I’m siding with the under this week.
4* Free Texas Longhorns vs. Iowa State Cyclones NCAA Betting Pick: u49.0
Texas Longhorns vs. Iowa State Cyclones Free Score Prediction: Longhorns 24 – Cyclones 7 (Bet Now!)If you’re looking for more picks like this Texas Longhorns vs. Iowa State Cyclones matchup we’ll be providing 4* free College football game predictions on the blog all season long, and check out our Experts for guaranteed premium & free CFB Football picks!
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