Free NCAAF Pick: Volunteers vs. Bulldogs Odds
Looking for Tennessee Volunteers vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Free NCAA Week 5 picks & NCAA odds? NCAAF betting sees the Volunteers taking on the Bulldogs on 9/27 at Davis Wade Stadium, in Mississippi State. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all NCAA football matchups all season long so stay tuned for more FREE daily NCAAF predictions like this Volunteers Bulldogs free pick.
2025 NCAAF Handicapping – Tennessee Volunteers vs Mississippi State Bulldogs
(3-1) Tennessee Volunteers vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-0)
Date: Sep 27, 2025
Time: 4:15 PM ET
Venue: Davis Wade Stadium in Mississippi State, MS
NCAAF Moneyline Odds: Volunteers -303 | Bulldogs +238 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NCAAF Spread Betting Odds: Volunteers -7.5 | Bulldogs +7.5
NCAAF Football Gambling Total: O/U: 62.5
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Volunteers vs. Bulldogs Gameday
First, the Tennessee Volunteers are set to take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Week 5 of the 2025 regular season. The game will be played at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, MS. Fans can tune in to SECN at 4:15 PM ET to catch the action.
Next, Tennessee enters this game ranked #15 in both the AP and Coaches Poll. They have a 3-1 record this season, with a perfect 1-0 on the road. Their last game saw them win big against UAB, scoring 56 points.
Meanwhile, Mississippi State has been on a roll, holding a perfect 4-0 record. The Bulldogs have been strong at home with a 3-0 record. They recently defeated Northern Illinois with a solid 38-10 win.
Lastly, when these two teams last met in 2024, Tennessee came out on top with a 33-14 win. The Volunteers hope to repeat that performance this weekend.
Mississippi State will look to defend their home turf and extend their winning streak.
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It’s Week 5, Tennessee Volunteers vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs, hopefully we get a great matchup.
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Odds & Last 5
To begin, the odds for the Tennessee Volunteers to win stand at -301, while Mississippi State sits at +242. The spread favors Tennessee by 7.5 points, with both teams having the same odds of -110. The total points line is set at 62.5, giving bettors options for both over and under.
Looking back, Tennessee has shown a mixed bag in recent games, with a 3-1 record. After a high-scoring win against UAB, they fell short against Georgia in a close game. Meanwhile, Mississippi State has been consistent with a 4-0 start, taking down Northern Illinois comfortably in their last outing.
In head-to-head action, Tennessee claimed victory in their last meeting with Mississippi State, winning 33-14. This time, the Volunteers aim to replicate that success in Starkville.
Mississippi State’s strong home record makes them a tough opponent to beat.
Bulldogs Stats
Currently, the Mississippi State Bulldogs are riding a wave of success. They have won all four games this season, with their most recent win being a 38-10 victory against Northern Illinois. Their offense is ranked 14th in points for, with a total of 159 points scored.
On the defensive side, Mississippi State is showing strong numbers. They have allowed only 47 points, ranking 24th in points against. The team has also recorded five interceptions, placing them 6th in that category.
Leading the charge for the Bulldogs is quarterback Blake Shapen. He has thrown for 882 yards and seven touchdowns across four games. Meanwhile, running back Fluff Bothwell has been effective on the ground, rushing for 271 yards and scoring four touchdowns.
Mississippi State’s receiving corps is also contributing well. Brenen Thompson and Anthony Evans III have combined for over 580 receiving yards and five touchdowns. Despite an injury to defensive lineman Will Whitson, the team continues to perform at a high level.
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Volunteers Stats
The Tennessee Volunteers have shown strong offensive capabilities this season. They rank 2nd in points scored with 214 and 5th in passing yards with 1,351. Their rushing attack is also solid, ranking 18th with 888 yards, while they stand 3rd in first downs with 113.
Next, the Volunteers’ defense has been effective in certain areas. They are ranked 3rd in sacks with 15 and 4th in interceptions with 3. Additionally, they have recovered 3 fumbles, placing them 3rd in that category.
Recently, Tennessee has had a mix of results. They secured a big win against UAB Blazers with a score of 56-24. However, they faced a close loss to the Georgia Bulldogs, ending at 44-41.
Finally, key players have been stepping up for the Volunteers. Joey Aguilar, their quarterback, has thrown for 1,124 yards and 12 touchdowns. On the ground, Star Thomas leads with 272 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns, while Chris Brazzell II shines in the receiving game with 426 yards and 6 touchdowns.
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Volunteers vs. Bulldogs QB Matchup
Blake Shapen is the top quarterback for Mississippi State. He has played in four games, throwing for 882 yards. Shapen has also tossed seven touchdowns against two interceptions.
Kamario Taylor is another quarterback option for Mississippi State. He has appeared in three games, throwing for 46 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions.
Joey Aguilar leads the Tennessee Volunteers as their starting quarterback. In four games, he has thrown for 1,124 yards and 12 touchdowns, though he has also been picked off three times.
Jake Merklinger is another quarterback for Tennessee. He has played in two games, passing for 175 yards and two touchdowns without throwing an interception.
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Football Betting Trends
- The Volunteers are 5-0 against the spread in their last 6 games.
- In their last 5 games as favorites, the Volunteers have hit the over every time.
- Also, the Volunteers have gone over the total in their last 5 games after a win.
- The Bulldogs are 5-0 against the spread in their last 5 games.
- Additionally, the Bulldogs have won their last 3 home games straight up.
- The Bulldogs have gone over the total in 21 of their last 28 home games.
Volunteers vs Bulldogs Prediction: Over 62.5
The Tennessee Volunteers have been lighting up the scoreboard, cashing the over in five straight games as favorites. Their offense ranks second in the nation in points scored, proving they can pour it on against any opponent.
Meanwhile, the Bulldogs have been reliable at home, going over the total in 21 of their last 28 home contests. With an offense ranked 14th nationally in points, they have the weapons to keep pace with Tennessee in a shootout.
Both teams bring firepower, and with the total set at 62.5, the offensive trends point toward another high-scoring SEC clash.
Additionally, neither defense has shown the consistency to shut down attacks of this caliber, which makes points even more likely. The combination of tempo and talent on both sidelines should create scoring opportunities throughout the game.
Given the track record and current form, the over 62.5 is the sharp play.
My projections forecast a fast-paced matchup, and I’m predicting we see the scoreboard light up well past the posted number.
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NCAAF Betting Tweet Of The Day
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⤷ Undefeated Bulldogs are taking a familiar approach as they prepare to face No. 15 Tennessee.#HailStatehttps://t.co/OKqr5NswxY— Mississippi State Football (@HailStateFB) September 23, 2025
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