Free NCAA Football Prediction: TCU vs. Kansas State Odds
Looking for TCU Horned Frogs vs. Kansas State Wildcats free picks? College football betting sees the Horned Frogs taking on the Wildcats on Saturday, October 22nd, 2022, at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, TX. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NCAA football season long so stay tuned for more FREE college football game predictions like this Horned Frogs Wildcats free pick.
College Football Handicapping Analysis: TCU Horned Frogs vs. Kansas State Wildcats
TCU Horned Frogs (6-0) vs. Kansas State Wildcats (5-1)
Date: Saturday, October 22nd, 2022
Time: 8:00 pm EST
Venue: Amon G. Carter Stadium
NCAA Football ATS Spread Odds: Horned Frogs -3.5 / Wildcats +3.5 (Bet Now!)
NCAA Football Moneyline Odds: TCU -173 / Kansas State +141
NCAA Betting Total Odds: O/U 54.5
TCU hosts Kansas State in a Big 12 showdown of two teams with conference championship hopes.
There are plenty of headlines that can be drawn from this matchup of two Big 12 leaders, but most importantly the winner will take sole possession of first place in the conference. The Big 12 has missed the college football playoff in years where the Big Ten and ACC send Ohio State and Clemson respectively, so it’s critical they present a quality team.
Sonny Dykes has transformed TCU since he changed neighborhoods this year, leaving SMU. The offense is third in the country points per game, Max Duggan is producing his best college season, Quentin Johnston is making his case for first round wide receiver, oh, and the Horned Frogs are fun as hell.
It would have been fair to wonder what season the Wildcats would have with Skylar Thompson leaving for the NFL. Losing the most important position on the field is usually a risky spot to be in, but Adrian Martinez of all people, has stepped in and led the Wildcats to a 5-1 record, including an upset win over #6 Oklahoma. This game represents their biggest challenge to date, however.
TCU Horned Frogs
TCU has been razing the ranked teams on their schedule lately. After Sonny Dykes dispatched his former team in week 3, the Horned Frogs have beaten #18 Oklahoma in a game that was never close, #19 Kansas and last week took out #8 Oklahoma State and Spencer Sanders. That’s as impressive a stretch anyone in college football has put together this year.
How do they do it? Simply put, TCU is one of the most explosive offenses in college football (5th). I watched the entirety of the beatdown they served Oklahoma and they had no shortage of homerun plays. Max Duggan has produced 16 touchdowns to just 1 interception this year.
RB Kendre Miller has explosiveness of his own as well. Through 6 games Miller posted 578 rushing yards and 8 scores. Kansas State doesn’t show much for line yards or stuff rate, but they are elite in defending run explosiveness (14th).
Quentin Johnston was off to a slow start to the year for TCU but he’s since woke up. A favorite to go in the first round of the draft, Johnston over the last two weeks has 22 catches, 386 yards and two touchdowns. Can the Wildcats figure out a way to bottle him up?
TCU doesn’t stress pace, they’re only 75th in seconds/play. Did I mention they rely on explosive plays?
On the defensive side of the ball, they’ve allowed 32.5 ppg when playing real opponents. It finally stressed them last week when they got off to a slow start against the Pokes and only won after a 2OT deathmatch. TCU looks okay from a success standpoint, but they themselves have been highly vulnerable to explosive plays (110th).
Kansas State Wildcats
Kansas State was off last week, and I’m usually a fan of teams with extra rest and preparation. Prior to facing off against Iowa State’s 3-3-5 defense that most teams haven’t been able to solve, they were averaging 32.4 ppg, a healthy number.
Former Nebraska quarterback Adrian Martinez has emerged from seemingly nowhere to lead the Wildcats. What a nut punch that must be to Huskers fans. Surprisingly, advanced data doesn’t love K-state offensively. They’re just 75th in success rate and don’t show much explosiveness.
Deuce Vaughn gets a favorable matchup against TCU’s 87th ranked defensive rushing success rate. If he can keep the offense on schedule, Kansas State should be able to score plenty in this game. Martinez has been an effective runner this season so TCU will have to employ a spy in the middle of the field.
The defense has been the better half for the Wildcats, ranking 9th in SP+ metrics and top-20 in defensive passing success rate. They’ve been just average in defending pass explosiveness though, something TCU will hope to exploit.
NCAA Football Handicapping Trends
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas State’s last 5 games when playing Texas Christian
- Kansas State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
- Texas Christian is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Texas Christian’s last 5 games when playing Kansas State
4* Free TCU Horned Frogs vs. Kansas State Wildcats NCAA Betting Final Analysis:
This game profiles to have a good amount of explosiveness. TCU is one of the best in the country at hitting big plays and they’re also highly susceptible to allowing big plays.
Neither team generates a lot of havoc, but they’re both elite at preventing it meaning we shouldn’t see a lot of negative plays.
The over seems like a trap to me, as in, it seems too low. Kansas State has played to their competition’s rate all season long and TCU can put points on the board.
I see value in the total though. I’m going with the over in a game that should feature a back and forth nature.
4* Free TCU Horned Frogs vs. Kansas State Wildcats NCAA Betting Pick: o54.5
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Kansas State Wildcats Free Score Prediction: Horned Frogs 35 – Wildcats 34 (Bet Now!)If you’re looking for more picks like this TCU Horned Frogs vs. Kansas State Wildcats matchup we’ll be providing 4* free College football game predictions on the blog all season long, and check out our Experts for guaranteed premium & free CFB Football picks!
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