Free NCAAF Pick: Bulls vs. Midshipmen Odds
Looking for South Florida Bulls vs. Navy Midshipmen Free NCAA Week 12 picks & NCAA odds? NCAAF betting sees the Bulls taking on the Midshipmen on 11/15 at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, in Navy. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all NCAA football matchups all season long so stay tuned for more FREE daily NCAAF predictions like this Bulls Midshipmen free pick.
2025 NCAAF Handicapping – South Florida Bulls vs Navy Midshipmen
(7-2) South Florida Bulls vs. Navy Midshipmen (7-2)
Date: Nov 15, 2025
Time: 12:00 PM ET
Venue: Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Navy, MD
NCAAF Moneyline Odds: Bulls -401 | Midshipmen +308 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NCAAF Spread Betting Odds: Bulls -10.5 | Midshipmen +10.5
NCAAF Football Gambling Total: O/U: 64.5
Here’s why I’m backing a Navy ATS bet below in my Bulls Midshipmen free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
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Bulls vs. Midshipmen Gameday
Week 12 brings a sneaky-tough AAC showdown as the #25 South Florida Bulls travel to Annapolis to battle the Navy Midshipmen at Navy–Marine Corps Memorial Stadium. Kickoff is set for noon ET on ESPN2, and yes — this one’s got “trap game” written all over it.
South Florida enters at 7-2, ranked inside the Top 25 after steamrolling UTSA 55-23 last week. The Bulls have been explosive offensively, but they’ve struggled to bring that same energy on the road — just 2-2 away from Tampa this season.
Their 4-1 conference record, though, keeps them firmly in the AAC title hunt.
Navy, meanwhile, sits at 7-2 as well and undefeated at home (5-0). That’s not nothing. The Midshipmen have stumbled lately, dropping two straight to North Texas and Notre Dame, but their option attack remains one of the most difficult systems to prepare for.
Expect plenty of misdirection, motion, and grinding clock control.
Last year, Navy dominated this matchup 28-7 — a game USF would love to forget. The Bulls did win the year prior, though, 44-30, showing this series can swing wildly depending on turnovers and tempo.
With both teams gunning for positioning in the AAC standings, the stakes are quietly massive.
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It’s Week 12, South Florida Bulls vs. Navy Midshipmen — and this one could come down to who handles the ground game better in the second half.
South Florida Bulls vs. Navy Midshipmen Odds & Last 5
Vegas is siding with South Florida here. The Bulls are -404 favorites, while Navy sits at +313. The spread sits at -10.5 in favor of USF, and the total floats around 56.
South Florida’s recent form is electric. They hung 55 points on UTSA and dropped 31 in a tight loss to Memphis the week before. Byrum Brown and the Bulls’ balanced offense have been one of the conference’s most dangerous units all season, scoring 34+ in five straight outings.
Navy, however, is trending in the wrong direction. They’ve lost two straight — a 49-10 drubbing by Notre Dame and a 31-17 defeat at North Texas — but are a different beast at home.
The Midshipmen’s 5-0 record in Annapolis speaks for itself, and you can bet they’ll try to control the tempo from kickoff to keep USF’s playmakers off the field.
Midshipmen Stats
The Navy Midshipmen are, as usual, a ground-heavy machine. They lead the nation in rushing yards (2,770) — no typo — but dead last in passing (1,214). When they’re running downhill, they look unstoppable. When they fall behind early, things get ugly fast.
Quarterback Blake Horvath has done just enough through the air to keep defenses honest, throwing for 1,143 yards and 7 touchdowns. However, he’s banged up with an upper-body injury that could limit his mobility — never ideal for an option QB. If he can’t go, that offense takes a major hit.
Defensively, Navy ranks 106th in points allowed but stays competitive through takeaways. They’re top 10 nationally in both interceptions and fumble recoveries.
Their formula is simple: control the clock, force turnovers, and drag opponents into the mud.
When it works, they can beat anyone.
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Bulls Stats
South Florida’s offense has been flat-out scary this year. They rank 6th in the nation in scoring (378 points) and are balanced across the board — 13th in rushing (2,045 yards) and 42nd in passing (2,325 yards).
Byrum Brown has emerged as a legit AAC star under center.
Defensively, it’s been more hit or miss. The Bulls have allowed 218 points (96th) but make up for it with pressure and turnovers. They rank 9th in sacks (25), 12th in interceptions (11), and 5th in fumble recoveries (8). When they get after the quarterback, they can swing games in a hurry.
Injury-wise, depth could be an issue. Tight end Weston Wolff and receiver Chas Nimrod are day-to-day, while running back Cartevious Norton and linebacker Greg Otten are out for the season.
Still, this team has proven it can win shootouts or slugfests.
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Bulls vs. Midshipmen QB Matchup
Navy’s Blake Horvath is the heart of their option system. He’s thrown for 1,143 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions in eight games, adding grit and leadership to an offense built on discipline. His health status will be a key storyline leading into kickoff.
Backup Braxton Woodson has been used sparingly, throwing for 71 yards in four games — likely a change-of-pace or emergency option if Horvath can’t go.
For USF, Byrum Brown continues to impress. The dual-threat QB has 2,203 passing yards and 19 touchdowns through nine games, with another 6 rushing scores on the season.
He’s ranked 33rd nationally in passing yards and has carried the Bulls offense with both arm and legs. Backup Locklan Hewlett saw action once, tossing a 45-yard TD in mop-up duty.
South Florida Bulls vs. Navy Midshipmen bottom line: Navy’s home-field magic and triple-option grit make them pesky, but South Florida’s offensive firepower is simply on another level.
South Florida Bulls vs. Navy Midshipmen Football Betting Trends
- South Florida is 11-2 straight up as favorites in their last 13 games.
- USF has hit the over in 9 of their last 10 games as favorites.
- South Florida is 3-0 on the over in their last 3 away games.
- Additionally, Navy is 18-12 against the spread as underdogs in their last 30 games.
- Also, Navy has gone over in 9 of their last 11 home games.
- The Midshipmen are 12-10 straight up after a loss in their last 22 games.
Bulls Midshipmen Free Pick: Navy +10.5
Here is my Midshipmen Bulls free pick. South Florida comes into this matchup ranked #25, winning 11 of their last 13 games as favorites — an impressive stretch that highlights their offensive punch.
They’ve also been a magnet for overs, hitting nine of their last ten totals in that same role, which tells you how dangerous their attack can be when firing on all cylinders.
However, Navy has quietly been one of the best teams in the country at covering the spread as an underdog, doing so in 18 of their last 30 opportunities. Their home field has been a fortress this season, going a perfect 5-0 outright.
Playing in Annapolis gives them an energy boost that’s tough to replicate elsewhere, and they always seem to play their best football in front of their home crowd.
Moreover, Navy’s defense is well-equipped to frustrate South Florida’s rhythm. They rank near the top nationally in sacks and turnovers forced, both key stats when facing a fast-paced, pass-heavy opponent.
Given Navy’s perfect home mark and proven track record as underdogs, grabbing +10.5 points offers tremendous value in this spot.
Look for the Midshipmen’s defense and ball-control offense to shorten the game and keep things close. Navy +10.5 is the play.
Today’s NCAAF Free Pick
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NCAAF Betting Tweet Of The Day
ꜱᴇɴɪᴏʀ ᴅᴀʏ ɢᴀᴍᴇ ᴡᴇᴇᴋ#GoNavy | #RollGoats pic.twitter.com/wlWgWz5M0i
— Navy Football (@NavyFB) November 10, 2025
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