Free NCAAF Pick: Mustangs vs. Golden Bears Odds
Looking for SMU Mustangs vs. California Golden Bears Free NCAA Week 14 picks & NCAA odds? NCAAF betting sees the Mustangs taking on the Golden Bears on 11/29 at California Memorial Stadium, in Berkeley, CA. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all NCAA football matchups all season long so stay tuned for more FREE daily NCAAF predictions like this Mustangs Golden Bears free pick.
2025 NCAAF Handicapping – SMU Mustangs vs California Golden Bears
(8-3) SMU Mustangs vs. California Golden Bears (6-5)
Date: Nov 29, 2025
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Venue: California Memorial Stadium in Berkeley, CA
NCAAF Moneyline Odds: Mustangs -536 | Golden Bears +392 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NCAAF Spread Betting Odds: Mustangs -13.5 | Golden Bears +13.5
NCAAF Football Gambling Total: O/U: 52.5
Here’s why I’m backing an SMU ATS bet below in my Mustangs Golden Bears free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
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Mustangs vs. Golden Bears Gameday
Week 14 of the 2025 season sees the SMU Mustangs travel to California Memorial Stadium for a matchup with the Golden Bears. The game kicks off at 10:30 PM on ESPN2, and fans can expect the usual late-night excitement that comes with a primetime Saturday game.
SMU, sitting at 8-3 and ranked 25th in the AP and Coaches Polls, is rolling with a three-game win streak.
They’ve been cruising lately, including a dominant 38-6 win over Louisville that showcased their strength on both sides of the ball.
Meanwhile, California comes in at 6-5 overall and 3-4 in conference play. They’re coming off a 31-10 loss to Stanford, and while they’ve shown flashes of competitiveness, their overall inconsistency leaves them vulnerable against a team like SMU.
Last year’s game saw SMU dominate with a 38-6 win, and the Golden Bears are hoping for better results on their home turf this time around. With a spot in the Atlantic Coast Conference on the line, this matchup carries extra significance for both teams.
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It’s Week 14, SMU Mustangs vs. California Golden Bears, and we’re all hoping for a game that doesn’t just turn into a blowout.
SMU Mustangs vs. California Golden Bears Odds & Last 5
SMU enters as a heavy favorite, with a moneyline of -546 and a spread of -13.5. California sits at +403 on the moneyline and +13.5 on the spread, which suggests oddsmakers think this one could stay somewhat close—if the Golden Bears pull off a miracle.
Looking back at recent games, SMU has been firing on all cylinders, coming off wins over teams like Louisville and Boston College. Their 38-6 dismantling of Louisville shows how well-rounded they are, both offensively and defensively.
On the flip side, California’s form has been less stable. They recently bounced back with a win over Louisville, but their losses to Stanford and Virginia show how far they still have to go to compete with teams like SMU.
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Golden Bears Stats
California’s offense ranks 81st in scoring with 260 points, and while their passing game has some success, ranking 31st with 2,912 yards, their rushing game has been a huge disappointment, sitting at 131st with just 829 yards.
Defensively, the Golden Bears have had some bright spots. They rank 8th in turnovers forced with 10 fumble recoveries and 9 interceptions, but their overall defense has allowed 283 points, placing them 108th in the country. Their pass rush is solid, ranking 20th with 19 sacks, but they’ll need much more to stay competitive here.
The Bears’ recent performances have been mixed, with a narrow win over Louisville and losses to Stanford, Virginia, and Virginia Tech showing they can’t afford to be inconsistent against a team like SMU.
On the individual side, Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele leads with 2,779 passing yards, while Kendrick Raphael is the top rusher with 751 yards. Their receiving corps is led by Jacob De Jesus, who has 86 catches for 743 yards and 6 touchdowns. However, injuries to key players could affect their chances in this one.
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Mustangs Stats
SMU’s offense has been impressive, ranking 15th nationally with 3,152 passing yards. While their rushing game could use some work (ranking 97th with 1,403 yards), their ability to score through the air has been their strength this season.
Kevin Jennings has been the engine behind the Mustangs, with 3,113 passing yards and 24 touchdowns, ranking 10th in the nation. He’s been key to their offensive success, and his ability to stretch the field has kept defenses on their toes.
On defense, SMU ranks 4th in the nation with 35 sacks, and they’ve been equally effective in the secondary, with 17 interceptions, placing them 18th overall. Their defense has been instrumental in their 8-3 record, helping them dominate weaker opponents and stay competitive in close games.
SMU is on a roll, having won four of their last five games, with notable victories over Louisville and Boston College. Their only loss during that stretch came in a nail-biting 13-12 game against Wake Forest, but overall, they’ve been a solid team on both sides of the ball.
SMU Mustangs vs. California Golden Bears bottom line: SMU’s high-powered offense and stifling defense give them a strong advantage, but California’s home-field could keep it closer than expected.
SMU Mustangs vs. California Golden Bears Football Betting Trends
- SMU is 26-4 straight up in their last 30 games as favorites.
- SMU is 22-5 straight up after a win in their last 27 games.
- SMU is 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games with totals of 50 or more.
- California is 6-1 straight up after a loss in their last 7 games.
- Additionally, California is 13-7-1 on the over/under after a loss in their last 21 games.
- California is 14-8 on the over/under as underdogs in their last 22 games.
Mustangs Golden Bears Free Pick: SMU -13.5
Here is my Mustangs Golden Bears free pick. SMU has been dominant as a favorite, winning 26 of their last 30 games outright and performing well after a win with a 22-5 record in their last 27. Their consistency, especially against weaker defenses, makes them a strong pick to cover the spread.
California has had difficulty bouncing back after losses, with a 6-1 record straight up but a defense that ranks poorly, allowing 283 points this season.
SMU’s offense, ranked 30th in points scored, is more than capable of exploiting the Golden Bears’ defensive weaknesses
Their strong defense — ranked 68th in points allowed — should be able to stifle California’s offense, which ranks just 81st in points scored.
My system tells me SMU’s consistent form as favorites and California’s defensive struggles make -13.5 a solid value.
With SMU controlling both sides of the ball, they should have no problem covering this spread. SMU -13.5 is the play.
Today’s NCAAF Free Pick
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NCAAF Betting Tweet Of The Day
General Manager Ron Rivera has announced a coaching leadership change.
— Cal Football (@CalFootball) November 24, 2025
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