Free Week 12 Prediction: Aztecs vs Bulldogs Odds
Looking for San Diego State Aztecs vs. Fresno State Bulldogs free picks? Week 12 betting sees the San Diego State Aztecs taking on the Fresno State Bulldogs on Saturday, November 17 at Bulldog Stadium in Fresno, CA. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NCAA football season long so stay tuned for more FREE college football predictions like this San Diego State Fresno State free pick.
College Football Handicapping: Week 12
(7-3) San Diego State Aztecs vs. Fresno State Bulldogs (8-2)
Date: Saturday, November 17, 2018
Time: 10:30 pm EST
Venue: Bulldog Stadium, Fresno, CA
NCAA Football Spread: Fresno State -15
NCAA Betting Total: 44
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The San Diego State Aztecs look to shake off a 27 – 24 defeat to UNLV last weekend, when they could have could controlled their own destiny towards a conference title game appearance. The Aztecs were -24 point favorites against the Rebels at home, and the offense simply couldn’t get rolling.
After starting the first four possessions against the Rebels last weekend, QB Christian Chapman was benched in favor of Ryan Agnew. Chapman’s inability to get the offense in sync led to a 6 – 0 first quarter deficit, although Agnew did get the Aztecs out in front by the half.
The Fresno State Bulldogs are now in the driver’s seat to take home a MWC West Division title, as a result of the Aztec’s loss to UNLV. However, this heads-up battle will still have major implications on who ends up in the conference title game.
San Diego State Aztecs
Christian Chapman is in his third year as the regular starter in his career with the Aztecs. This being his senior season, he has only played in four games, and essentially got pulled to make way for Ryan Agnew last weekend. Chapman’s numbers were actually down a bit in his junior season, and many wondered how effective he would be in 2018.
As it stands now, Agnew might be getting another start this weekend, and Chapman will likely be starting this game with headphones on his ears.
Regardless of who gets the nod at QB, the Aztec run offense is not all that and a bag of chips anymore. IF you caught last weekend’s loss to UNLV, you saw as well as I did that the Aztec offensive line is not exactly clearing big paths for RB Juwan Washington. Washington had to earn all 66 of those rush yards he gained, although he found the end zone at the end of the 2nd quarter to give the Aztecs a 14 – 13 HT lead.
Not that he has to, but Washington is simply not a part of the passing game at all. We know the history of the Aztec backs with Pumphrey and Penney, and Pumphrey was certainly a factor in the offense completely.
Luckily, Timothy Wilson Jr. is an absolute beast, and will catch any football that is within reach.
Wilson caught 5 balls for 123 yards and two scores, doing his part to carry the load last weekend.
San Diego State still ranks 5th in the nation against the run, but last weekend they got lit up for 199 yards against UNLV’s ground game. The Rebels ran the ball 43 times, and found out that Lexington Thomas is pretty good!
Thomas only needs 91 yards for UNLV to garner his second consecutive 1000-yard campaign.
Fresno State Bulldogs
The Bulldogs are 5 – 1 in conference play, and hold all the cards should they win their final 2 games of the season. They open as double-digit home favorites, and a win will put them through to win the West Division crown. and on to the MWC title game.
Fresno State has not exactly treated their guests to Bulldog Stadium very kindly in 2018. Not only are they 4 – 0 at home, but they’ve scored 205 points and trounced each opponent they’ve faced here.
The last time these two met, Fresno State handed the Aztecs a 27 – 3 home loss a season ago. The Bulldog defense held Aztec QB Christian Chapman to 77 yards passing, while going 10 for 20. Rashad Penney only gained 69 yards on 15 carries. T
he Bulldogs carried that momentum to a 9-win regular season, a MWC Conference title game appearance, and a win in the Hawaii Bowl against Houston to finish out the campaign.
There is no Rashad Penney to contend with, and as I spoke of, the Aztec running game doesn’t look all that lethal using the eye-test. Obviously the line setters expect another lopsided win for Fresno State, despite how much is actually on the line for both teams.
We simply cannot judge teams on a week-to-week basis alone, but the Aztecs offensive line does not look like they have goods to support either QB, or the running game.
This is both teams early season ‘bowl game’ if you will, because the winner of the game will likely cruise to the MWC West Division title.
NCAA Football Handicapping Trends
- Aztecs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
- Aztecs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
- Aztecs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
- Bulldogs are 21-4-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall.
- Bulldogs are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games.
Free Week 12 NCAA Football Pick
The play at Bulldogs Stadium will be on the total, because 44 is entirely too low for this big game. Fresno State will move the ball just fine at home, as they always tend to do. The Aztecs will likely try to get back to running the ball and keeping the Fresno State offense the field, so their success or lack their of, will determine the pace of he game as well.
4* Free NCAA Betting Pick: Freson State is favored at -15, with a 44 showing on the total. Free ATS or O/U final score pick provided below!
They both score in the high 20’s, and we see a 31 – 21 game break out in a close battle. The +15 is certainly worthy of a look, but the Over 44 is your 4* selection for this contest.
Week 12 Free Score Prediction: San Diego State 21 – Fresno State 31
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