Free NCAAF Pick: Rebels vs. Gators Odds
Looking for Ole Miss Rebels vs. Florida Gators Free NCAA picks & NCAA odds? NCAAF betting sees the Rebels taking on the Gators on 9/26 at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, in Gainesville, FL. This free NCAA football pick is based on matchup analysis and documented handicapping data tracked by CappersPicks since 2004, with a focus on identifying the strongest betting angle for this Rebels Gators matchup.
2026 NCAAF Handicapping – Ole Miss Rebels vs Florida Gators
(3-0) Ole Miss Rebels vs. Florida Gators (3-0)
Date: Sep 26, 2026
Time: 3:30 PM ET
Venue: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, FL
NCAAF Moneyline Odds: Rebels +133 | Gators -161 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NCAAF Spread Betting Odds: Rebels +3.5 | Gators -3.5
NCAAF Football Gambling Total: O/U: 60.5
Here’s why I’m backing a Florida ATS bet below in my Rebels Gators free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
Rebels vs. Gators Gameday
No. 4 Ole Miss heads into The Swamp for a top-25 SEC matchup with No. 21 Florida. Kickoff is set for 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, September 26, 2026, at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, with ABC carrying the game.
The Rebels are 3-0 after beating LSU 32-24 in Oxford. Ole Miss built a 24-7 halftime lead, watched LSU make things uncomfortable after the break, then finished the job with an eight-point fourth quarter.
Ole Miss escaped one SEC heavyweight fight, and naturally the reward is an afternoon in The Swamp.
Florida is also 3-0 after winning 44-39 at Auburn. The Gators led 41-24 in the fourth quarter before Auburn made the final minutes considerably more dramatic than Florida probably had in mind.
Both teams are 1-0 in SEC play, and both arrive with ranked wins already tucked away.
Ole Miss won last year’s meeting 34-24 in Oxford. Florida took the previous matchup 24-17 in Gainesville in 2024, so recent history hasn’t exactly encouraged visitors to get comfortable.
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Saturday also gives Ole Miss its first road game of the season, and The Swamp isn’t known for handing out complimentary welcome baskets.
Ole Miss Rebels vs. Florida Gators Odds & Last 5
Florida is a 3.5-point home favorite, with the Gators around -155 on the moneyline and Ole Miss around +130. It’s a fascinating little number considering the Rebels enter ranked fourth in the country.
Ole Miss opened with a 41-38 win over Louisville and followed with another 41-point effort against Charlotte. The Rebels then handled LSU 32-24, giving them three victories and 114 points through three games.
Florida has been even louder offensively.
The Gators scored 66 against Florida Atlantic and 52 against Campbell before hanging 44 on Auburn in their SEC opener. Florida piled up 495 yards at Jordan-Hare, including 243 on the ground, although 16 penalties for 138 yards gave head coach Jon Sumrall plenty to discuss afterward.
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Gators Stats
Florida has scored 162 points through three games, averaging 54.0 per contest.
The Gators have done plenty of damage on the ground, scoring 12 rushing touchdowns while giving first-year head coach Jon Sumrall a 3-0 start.
Jadan Baugh has been the centerpiece with 458 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. He ran for 162 yards and three scores at Auburn, including touchdown bursts of 33 and 53 yards in the second half.
Aaron Philo has supplied the balance at quarterback. He has thrown for 721 yards and six touchdowns through three games, including 204 yards and a score against Auburn.
Florida rolled up 495 total yards in that victory, with 252 through the air and 243 on the ground.
The defense has allowed 63 points, although Auburn scored 15 of those in the fourth quarter after Florida had built a 17-point lead. The Gators have also forced turnovers consistently, something Ole Miss won’t want to feed in its first road game.
Rebels Stats
Ole Miss has scored 114 points during its 3-0 start, and the passing game has driven much of that production.
The Rebels threw for 363 yards against LSU while finishing with 426 total yards.
Trinidad Chambliss has thrown for 924 yards with seven touchdowns and two interceptions. He was excellent against LSU, completing 33 of 48 passes for 363 yards and two touchdowns while adding another score on the ground.
Chambliss has been dealing through three weeks; The Swamp now gets its chance to heckle the dealer.
Traylon Ray became his favorite target against LSU, catching seven passes for 115 yards and a touchdown.
The running game hasn’t been nearly as productive. Kewan Lacy leads Ole Miss with 191 rushing yards and four touchdowns, but the Rebels managed only 63 yards on the ground against LSU.
Ole Miss has allowed 71 points through three games. The defense held LSU to 330 total yards and 24 points, including just three points in the fourth quarter while protecting the lead.
Rebels vs. Gators QB Matchup
Aaron Philo has settled into Florida’s offense with 721 passing yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions through three games. He hasn’t needed to play superhero because Baugh and the running game have been perfectly happy doing the heavy lifting.
Against Auburn, Philo threw for 204 yards and a touchdown while Florida churned out 243 yards on the ground.
Trinidad Chambliss has carried a larger passing workload for Ole Miss.
The Rebels quarterback has thrown for 924 yards with seven touchdowns and two interceptions. His 363-yard performance against LSU was his best of the season and showed he can move the offense against SEC competition without needing much help from the running game.
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Tramell Jones Jr. has handled limited work behind Philo, while Deuce Knight has seen backup snaps for Ole Miss.
The contrast here is pretty clear.
Florida can let Philo work off Baugh and a productive rushing attack. Ole Miss has been far more dependent on Chambliss creating through the air, particularly after the ground game stalled against LSU.
Neither quarterback has been asked to rescue a season yet, which is usually preferable three weeks into September.
The Swamp may change the degree of difficulty for Chambliss, but his early-season production gives Ole Miss a legitimate answer if Florida starts putting touchdowns on the board.
Ole Miss Rebels vs. Florida Gators bottom line: Florida owns the stronger rushing attack and home field, while Chambliss gives Ole Miss enough firepower through the air to make this a very uncomfortable afternoon if the Gators start handing out extra possessions.
Ole Miss Rebels vs. Florida Gators Football Betting Trends
- Ole Miss is 3-1 against the spread as an underdog in their last four games.
- Plus, Florida is 4-0 straight up in their last four games as a favorite.
- Ole Miss has covered the spread in 13 out of their last 23 games after a win.
- Also, the Gators are 3-0 straight up at home in their last three games.
- Florida is 9-3 against the spread after a win in their last 12 games.
- The Rebels have hit the over in three of their last four away games.
Rebels Gators Free Pick: Florida -3.5
Here is my Rebels Gators free pick: I’m backing Florida -3.5. Ole Miss deserves plenty of respect after beating LSU, but Gainesville is a lousy place to celebrate your previous Saturday for very long.
Florida’s offense finally got a legitimate SEC test at Auburn and answered with 495 yards. Jadan Baugh was the hammer, rushing for 162 yards and three touchdowns while the Gators averaged better than six yards per carry.
Ole Miss survived LSU’s pressure cooker; now the Rebels get another one with 90,000 people wearing blue and orange.
The Rebels can absolutely make Florida uncomfortable through the air, but their running game managed only 63 yards against LSU. That’s a problem if the Gators can make Trinidad Chambliss operate with Florida’s pass rush knowing what’s coming.
I expect a close SEC game, because apparently nobody schedules a relaxing Saturday anymore. Home field and Florida’s rushing advantage are enough for me to lay the short number.
Take Florida -3.5.
Today’s NCAAF Free Pick
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Florida Gators on X
Back at home this week.
🆚 Ole Miss
⏰ 3:30 p.m. ET
📺 @ABC
🏟️ The Swamp pic.twitter.com/ibmtUOmBJ4— Florida Gators Football (@GatorsFB) September 21, 2026
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