Free NCAA Football Prediction: Oklahoma vs. Baylor Odds
Looking for Oklahoma Sooners vs. Baylor Bears free picks? College football betting sees the Sooners taking on the Bears on Saturday, November 5th, 2022, at Memorial Stadium in Norman, OK. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NCAA football season long so stay tuned for more FREE college football game predictions like this Sooners Bears free pick.
College Football Handicapping Analysis: Oklahoma Sooners vs. Baylor Bears
Oklahoma Sooners (5-3) vs. Baylor Bears (5-3)
Date: Saturday, November 5th, 2022
Time: 3:00 pm EST
Venue: Memorial Stadium
NCAA Football ATS Spread Odds: Sooners -3.5 / Bears +3.5 (Bet Now!)
NCAA Football Moneyline Odds: Oklahoma -170 / Baylor +139
NCAA Betting Total Odds: O/U 58.0
Baylor needs a win to keep pace in the Big 12 conference title chase, while Oklahoma is building a foundation for next year.
Things haven’t gone to plan for Will Venables to start his Oklahoma tenure, but coaches are given at least a few years before firing conversations start. A lot of that has to do with expensive buyout language but Venables also needs time to “get his guys”. They’ve acquitted themselves a little bit; after starting the season 3-0, they lost the next 3 in blowout fashion and have recovered since with two straight wins.
Dave Aranda continues to keep the show going in Waco. Baylor was one of the first teams this writer can remember implementing the 3-3-5 defense that has become so popular. They rode that wave after losing Rhule to the NFL and it’s worked well. Their schedule has softened a bit, picking on the now defunct Kansas and Texas Tech, but a win is a win. Can they keep it rolling?
Oklahoma Sooners
Dillon Gabriel has been incredibly productive since coming over from UCF. The junior transfer has posted 1,766 yards and 14 touchdowns to 1 interception. He got knocked out of the TCU game that resulted in a blowout and missed the Texas game entirely but has led the team to two straight wins.
Eric Gray leads a rush heavy attack and one that ranks top-40 in offensive rushing success rate. The Sooners aren’t really an explosive offense, so they’ll need to move the chains methodically and get into scoring range.
Oklahoma only ranks 64th in red zone attempts per game, something we would like to see be much higher, but they do rank 22nd in offensive touchdowns per game with 4.3, which means they can score from a range of field positions.
Marvin Mims leads the Oklahoma pass catching group in receptions and yards but TE Brayden Willis paces the team with 5 touchdown grabs. It’s striking then that with their mediocre passing success rate (60th) that Gabriel’s numbers look the way they do and without much explosiveness in their profile. Of course, the Sooner offense missed Gabriel for basically 7 quarters, which is no doubt impacting all of their advanced metrics.
The Sooner defense has been lackluster and blown out at times. TCU and Texas were both dynamos when they saw the Oklahoma defense, which leaves hope for Baylor. The Sooners are 93rd in defensive PPA and don’t show much in the way of defensive success rate or defending explosiveness. In conference play they’ve allowed 40 ppg.
Baylor Bears
Baylor actually outpaces Oklahoma in offensive success rate and even show some explosiveness in their profile. The rushing attack got it done against Texas Tech, posting 231 yards and 4 scores on 59 total carries.
And that’s totally in line with what they’ve done all season. The Bears rank top-30 in rushing rate and 21st in rushing explosiveness. The Sooners have struggled mightily with defending rush explosiveness (106th).
Baylor can also methodically move the ball when passing. QB Blake Shapen is asked to do just enough while leaning on his running game. Oklahoma’s secondary ranks 80th in havoc generated, so it’s likely we won’t see Shapen struggle in this spot.
The Bears will have to contend with the Sooner ground game that has done well all season. They actually match up well here: top-30 in defensive rushing success rate, they limit explosiveness and rank 23rd in rushing yards allowed per game.
How do they defend the pass? They haven’t seen a lot of it actually. They’re 102nd in pass play rate against so their numbers are a little difficult to parse. So let’s look at their game logs. They’ve held their opponents under 300 yards passing in each of their last three games and are 16th in havoc generated in the secondary. I like for them to get a pick or two and really shake the Sooner offense.
NCAA Football Handicapping Trends
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baylor’s last 5 games
- Baylor is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Oklahoma
- Oklahoma is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Baylor
- Oklahoma is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games at home
4* Free Oklahoma Sooners vs. Baylor Bears NCAA Betting Final Analysis:
Oklahoma is favored at home in this game and while I would agree they probably have the better offense, Baylor’s defense far outpaces the Sooner unit.
Dave Aranda has been a great coach for Baylor, going back to his days as the DC. The 3-3-5 stack has been effective in college football this year. Iowa State runs the same defense and just held the Sooners to 27 points, but didn’t have the offense to keep pace.
Baylor’s ground game should be too much for the Sooner defense to keep up with, based on their advanced data. Vegas is bullish on Oklahoma in this spot at home, but I’m taking the points with Baylor.
4* Free Oklahoma Sooners vs. Baylor Bears NCAA Betting Pick: Baylor +3.5
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Baylor Bears Free Score Prediction: Sooners 31 – Bears 28 (Bet Now!)If you’re looking for more picks like this Oklahoma Sooners vs. Baylor Bears matchup we’ll be providing 4* free College football game predictions on the blog all season long, and check out our Experts for guaranteed premium & free CFB Football picks!
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