Free NCAA Football Prediction: Ohio State vs. Michigan Odds
Looking for Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan Wolverines free picks? College football betting sees the Buckeyes taking on the Wolverines on Saturday, November 26th, 2022, at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, OH. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NCAA football season long so stay tuned for more FREE college football game predictions like this Buckeyes Wolverines free pick.
College Football Handicapping Analysis: Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan Wolverines
Ohio State Buckeyes (11-0) vs. Michigan Wolverines (11-0)
Date: Saturday, November 26th, 2022
Time: 12:00 PM EST
Venue: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH
NCAA Football ATS Spread Odds: Ohio State -7.5 (-110) / Michigan +7.5 (-110) (Bet Now!)
NCAA Football Moneyline Odds: Ohio State -309 / Michigan +232
NCAA Betting Total Odds: 56.0
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The annual rivalry of Ohio State and Michigan sees two undefeated teams both vying for a trip to Indianapolis, and even more importantly, the College Football Playoff.
Ohio State’s goal all year — and certainly their expectation — was to run the table in the Big Ten until they reached Michigan. This was always the one they had their eye on. There’s enough already on the line, but add to it the Buckeyes want to avenge their loss to hated rival Michigan last year? Well, that’s just too good.
Michigan wants to continue their success not only against Ohio State but they too would like another crack at the CFP. Last year ended unceremoniously with a loss in the semis, but Michigan made enough progress to feel like the year wasn’t a win. Certainly, Michigan will follow the same formula that worked last year: pound the rock behind a massive o-line.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Ryan Day made it a point this year to re-establish the run game. The reason Ohio State lost to Michigan last year was the lack of ability in running offensively and not being able to stop the run defensively. They’ve since emphasized the run and hired Jim Knowles on the defensive side to solve that problem.
The Buckeye running backs have been oft injured this season with both TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams missing stretches of games. They’ve been highly effective when they have played, but Dallan Hayden deserves a lot of credit for picking up in their stead. The Buckeyes rank 12th in offensive line yards and 17th in offensive rushing success rate.
CJ Stroud was at one time considered a Heisman favorite but has fallen off considerably. However, advanced metrics still like the attack and shows plenty of explosiveness. Harrison Jr, Egbueka and potentially Jaxson Smith-Njigba form a difficult to guard trio.
Jim Knowles was the solution to the Buckeyes defensive woes, switching over to a 4-2-5 scheme that he employed with Oklahoma State. That scheme has ranked top-5 in defensive rushing success rate, which is what Michigan will want to live off of. The Buckeye d-line has been stingy, also ranking top-5 in defensive line yards.
Michigan Wolverines
There aren’t any frills to what Michigan wants to do. They want to pound the rock down your throat and exhaust your front seven for 4 quarters. The challenge will be finding the running back to do it. Blake Corum is questionable for this game and Donovan Edwards missed last week against the Illini.
Still, the advanced metrics love the Michigan trenches similarly. They’re fifth in rushing success rate, and top-25 in power success and line yards. Due to the Wolverine’s grinding style, they profile with no explosiveness. If they were to get down by a few touchdowns early it could spell disaster.
JJ McCarthy has led the Wolverines to a respectable 15th in passing success rate, so he isn’t totally unreliable. Ronnie Bell is an explosive wide receiver option the Buckeyes would do well not to forget about.
Michigan ranks top-5 in defensive success rate and line yards, so they can potentially stop what the Bucks want to do. They’ve also limited explosiveness to the 34th best mark, which is important when facing the Ohio State offense. Remember, Michigan can’t handle a negative game script so well.
NCAA Football Handicapping Trends
- Michigan is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Michigan’s last 5 games when playing Ohio State
- Ohio State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Michigan
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Ohio State’s last 5 games when playing Michigan
4* Free Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan Wolverines NCAA Betting Final Analysis:
This game is going to be a heart-stopping, snap-by-snap battle.
Ohio State is 4-2-1 this season ATS as a home favorite, covering by an average of 5.1 points. Michigan has not been a road dog.
There’s a lot of context. Ohio State wants to avenge their loss, Michigan played a weak schedule, Ohio State’s offense still isn’t clicking, Michigan has injuries.
Still, I can’t shake the feeling like Ohio State won’t come out at home fired up to get revenge. Lay the points.
4* Free Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan Wolverines NCAA Betting Pick: OSU -7.5
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