Free NCAA Pick: North Carolina vs. West Virginia Odds
Looking for North Carolina Tar Heels vs. West Virginia Mountaineers free NCAA 2023 Duke’s Mayo Bowl picks & NCAA odds? NCAA betting sees the Tar Heels taking on the Mountaineers on Wednesday, December 27th at the Bank of America Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NCAA handicapping picks all season long including all NCAA Bowl games so stay tuned for more FREE NCAA predictions like this North Carolina West Virginia matchup.
2023 NCAAF Handicapping Analysis: Duke’s Mayo Bowl
(8-4) North Carolina Tar Heels vs. West Virginia Mountaineers (8-4)
2023 Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Date: Wednesday, December 27th
Time: 5:30 ET
Venue: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
Duke’s Mayo Bowl ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) North Carolina +4 | West Virginia -4
Mayo Bowl Moneyline Odds: North Carolina +138 | West Virginia -172
College Football Betting Total: O/U 57
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These teams did not face off last season.
In fact, this marks the third encounter between these power conference schools, a surprising fact considering their limited history.
Despite sharing the Southern Conference from 1950-1953, UNC and WVU didn’t meet until the 1997 Gator Bowl.
Their rematch in the 2008 Meineke Car Care Bowl, now the Duke’s Mayo Bowl, resulted in West Virginia evening the series at 1-1 with a narrow 31-30 win.
West Virginia’s participation in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl marks their 40th bowl appearance, with 19 of those occurring in the last 22 years.
On the other side, UNC’s season has been a letdown. The key question is their motivation for this game. Starting strong at 6-0, they were ranked #10 but ended with an 8-4 record, going 4-4 in the ACC and tying for sixth place.
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North Carolina Tar Heels
After trailing by -13 at halftime, North Carolina could not make a comeback and lost their most recent game 39-20 to NC State.
So far, North Carolina has been favored eight times and the underdog in one game. This has led to an ATS record of 5-4 and an average scoring differential of +9.5.
Across 12 games, the average over/under line in North Carolina’s matchups is 57.4 points.
These games have seen an average combined score of 63.7 points, resulting in an OU record of 4-4-1.
North Carolina Tar Heels Stats
Heading into their matchup vs. West Virginia, the Tar Heels’ offense is averaging 196.9 rushing yards per game, along with 5 yards per attempt.
They currently hold the 19th rank in rushing yards and 11th rank in passing yards, amassing an average of 306.8 yards per game.
In terms of scoring, North Carolina is at 36.6 points per game, which is 18th in the NCAA.
The Tar Heels defense heads into this week’s matchup with 27 sacks and sitting 1st in QB hurries. So far, they’ve allowed 27.1 points per game (106th). In the pass defense department, they’re 130th nationally, giving up 242.3 passing yards per game.
Additionally, when it comes to defending the run, North Carolina’s defense is allowing 164.6 rushing yards per contest.
Through the air, the Tar Heels’ attempted 38 passes against NC State, gaining 254 yards and securing two scores.
On the ground, they maintained an average of 6.2 yards per carry, resulting in one rushing touchdown.
UNC’s bowl roster is depleted, with 7 players in the transfer portal, 5 preparing for the NFL draft, and 5 sidelined by injuries.
West Virginia Mountaineers
In their most recent game, West Virginia faced off against Baylor, pulling out a tight 34-31 win.
Against the spread, West Virginia has gone 6-5 this season. The Mountaineers have been favored six times compared to five games as the underdog.
Across 12 games, the average over/under line in West Virginia’s matchups is 52.3 points.
These games have seen an average combined score of 59.1 points, resulting in an OU record of 7-4.
West Virginia Mountaineers Stats
West Virginia’s offense has put up an average of 31.6 points per game, placing them 39th in the NCAA rankings.
Through the air, they’ve gained 203.8 passing yards on average, ranking 92nd in the nation. On the ground, they’re holding the 4th position in rushing yards, with 528 rushing attempts per game this season.
The Mountaineers’ finished with 25 pass attempts vs. Baylor, accumulating 269 yards and two scores.
In the rushing game, they averaged 7.2 yards per carry and notched two rushing touchdowns.
West Virginia’s defense holds the 89th rank in passing yards allowed per game as they head into this game. On average, opponents have made 32.5 passing attempts against the Mountaineers.
They have given up 27.5 points per game, which places them at 110th in college football.
In the rush defense category, they rank 71st in the NCAA.
The critical showdown in this game centers around the Mountaineers’ seasoned rushing offense pitted against a vulnerable UNC run defense.
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. West Virginia Mountaineers NCAA Football Betting Trends
- The Tar Heels are 3-2 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Mountaineers are 2-3 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Tar Heels are 4-5-1 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Mountaineers have gone 3-7 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Tar Heels’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 2-1.
- The Mountaineers’ have an over/under record of 3-0 in their last 3 games at home.
North Carolina vs. West Virginia Line Movement
Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Tar Heels | +136 | +138 | +3.5 | +4 |
Mountaineers | -162 | -172 | -3.5 | -4 |
4* Free 2023 Duke’s Mayo Bowl NCAA Betting Prediction: North Carolina +4
Even though I’m backing West Virginia to win this one outright, I’d advise going with the moneyline.
This game might turn out to be tighter than expected, but I anticipate West Virginia securing a victory over North Carolina.
Going into this matchup, West Virginia’s offense has had difficulty converting on third downs.
I expect them to struggle once again and like North Carolina +4.
On the over/under, I have the best bet being to take the over at 57.
This looks like a slam dunk bet for me, as my gut tells me the over will hit as well as our model projecting a combined 59 points.
North Carolina’s last five games vs. Big 12 teams went OVER. West Virginia’s total trended OVER in six of their last seven games, and in four of their last five as favorites.
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North Carolina Tar Heels vs. West Virginia Mountaineers NCAA Betting Tweet Of The Day
Twang Time. pic.twitter.com/gRRFENUEV2
— West Virginia Football (@WVUfootball) December 26, 2023
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