Free NCAA Pick: New Mexico State vs. Fresno State Odds
Looking for New Mexico State Aggies vs. Fresno State Bulldogs free NCAA 2023 New Mexico Bowl picks & NCAA odds? NCAA betting sees the Aggies taking on the Bulldogs on Saturday, December 16th at the University Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NCAA handicapping picks all season long including all NCAA Bowl games so stay tuned for more FREE NCAA predictions like this New Mexico State Fresno State matchup.
2023 NCAAF Handicapping Analysis: Isleta New Mexico Bowl
(10-4) New Mexico State Aggies vs. Fresno State Bulldogs (8-4)
Date: Saturday, December 16th
Time: 5:45 ET
Venue: University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM
Isleta New Mexico Bowl ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) New Mexico State -3 | Fresno State +3
Bowl Game Moneyline Odds: New Mexico State -158 | Fresno State +126
College Football Betting Total: O/U 51
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It’s that time of year again in 2023, the Isleta New Mexico Bowl is here! This exciting bowl game is one of 17 owned and operated by ESPN and takes place at University Stadium in Albuquerque, New Mexico.
You can catch all the action nationwide on ESPN.
Fresno State (8-4, 4-4 MW) is making a return to the New Mexico Bowl for the fourth time in program history, having most recently triumphed over UTEP with a score of 31-24 in 2021.
On the other hand, the Aggies (10-4, 7-1 Conference USA) come into the game with an impressive record, winning eight of their last nine games, with their only loss occurring in the Conference USA Championship game against No. 24 Liberty last Friday.
These two teams first crossed paths in October 2005, with their most recent clash taking place in 2019. The Bulldogs have a strong record, winning seven of the last eight meetings, and their last encounter on September 28, 2019, resulted in a 30-17 victory for Fresno State.
There wasn’t a head-to-head matchup between Fresno State and New Mexico State last season.
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New Mexico State Aggies
The Aggies are coming off a 49-35 loss to Liberty in what turned out to be a shootout between the teams.
Against the spread, New Mexico State has gone 8-3 this season. The Aggies have been favored four times compared to seven games as the underdog.
Over the course of 14 games, the average over/under line in New Mexico State’s matchups has been 52 points.
These games have had an average combined score of 50.5 points, leading to an OU record of 4-7.
New Mexico State Aggies Stats
The Aggies’ heads into the game, averaging 204.1 rushing yards per game and 5 yards per attempt. Overall, they’re 3rd in rushing yards and 3rd in passing yards at 224.9 yards per contest. New Mexico State is averaging 28.7 points per game, which is 31st in the nation.
This season, the Aggies’ defense has allowed 145.9 rushing yards per game, ranking 145th. Opponents average 241.8 passing yards, and opposing quarterbacks have put together a passer rating of 95.5 against New Mexico State.
They hold the 60th position in NCAA points allowed.
Offensively, the Aggies finished with one score on the ground against Liberty while running for 177 rushing yards. In the passing attack, New Mexico State scored four times and threw the ball 35 times for 322 yards.
Fresno State Bulldogs
After trailing by -10 at halftime, Fresno State could not make a comeback and lost their most recent game 33-18 to San Diego State.
Fresno State has gone into nine games as the favorite this season and two games as the underdog.
Their ATS record is currently 4-7.
So far in this season, Fresno State has posted an over/under record of 7-4. On average, their matchups have yielded a combined score of 54.5 points, with the typical over/under line set at 50.8 points.
Fresno State Bulldogs Stats
On offense, the Bulldogs come in with the 11th ranked offense in terms of passing attempts and are averaging 273.1 passing yards per game. In the running game, they are 96th in terms of attempts.
The Bulldogs’ offense ended the game with two rushing touchdowns vs. San Diego State and 151 rushing yards on 19 attempts.
The team’s passing attack did not pick up a score, and finished with 190 while throwing the ball 36 times.
Fresno State’s defense enters the game ranked 130th in passing yards allowed per game. Opponents throw the ball an average of 31.3 times against the Bulldogs.
They have given up 24.6 PPG, which ranks 91st in college football. In terms of rushing yards allowed, they stand at 122nd in the NCAA.
New Mexico State Aggies vs. Fresno State Bulldogs NCAA Football Betting Trends
- The Aggies are 5-0 in their last five games as a favorite.
- Conversely, the Bulldogs are 3-2 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
- Also, the Aggies are 8-2 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Bulldogs have gone 5-5 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Aggies’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 2-1.
- The Bulldogs’ have an over/under record of 3-0 in their last 3 games at home.
New Mexico State vs. Fresno State Line Movement
Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Aggies | -138 | -158 | -2.5 | -3 |
Bulldogs | +115 | +126 | +2.5 | +3 |
4* Free 2023 Isleta New Mexico Bowl NCAA Betting Prediction: Fresno State +3
For a moneyline bet, I like New Mexico State to pick up the win. However, my recommendation is to stick to the moneyline, as our model gives Fresno State a decent chance at covering.
Even though they come in as the home underdogs, I like Fresno State to cover. I’m counting on their strong pass rush to make things tough for New Mexico State.
I found some interesting stats about this College football bowl game happening this week. Fresno State has been performing well, winning 16 out of their last 20 games. They also have a strong record of 7 wins in their last 8 games against New Mexico State and 6 wins in their last 8 December games.
On the other hand, New Mexico State has struggled, losing 15 of their last 18 games against opponents in the Mountain West conference.
My point spread pick is Fresno State at +3.
With the over/under line sitting at 51, my bet is to take the over.
So far, Fresno State have combined with their opponents to average 54.5 points per game, look for this game to surpass 51.
If you’re curious about Over/Under trends for the New Mexico Bowl, here’s some info. New Mexico State has seen the total go OVER in 13 of their last 18 games when they were the favorite, and Fresno State has had the total go OVER in 4 of their last 6 games.
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New Mexico State Aggies vs. Fresno State Bulldogs NCAA Betting Tweet Of The Day
last time was fun @NMBowl 🤩
🎟️https://t.co/Qkd1t9WtJ4 pic.twitter.com/w5w3NpSoIs
— Fresno State Football (@FresnoStateFB) December 7, 2023
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