Free NCAAF Pick: Midshipmen vs. Tigers Odds
Looking for Navy Midshipmen vs. Memphis Tigers Free NCAA Week 14 picks & NCAA odds? NCAAF betting sees the Midshipmen taking on the Tigers on 11/27 at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, in Memphis, TN. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all NCAA football matchups all season long so stay tuned for more FREE daily NCAAF predictions like this Midshipmen Tigers free pick.
2025 NCAAF Handicapping – Navy Midshipmen vs Memphis Tigers
(8-2) Navy Midshipmen vs. Memphis Tigers (8-3)
Date: Nov 27, 2025
Time: 7:30 PM ET
Venue: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium in Memphis, TN
NCAAF Moneyline Odds: Midshipmen +164 | Tigers -201 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NCAAF Spread Betting Odds: Midshipmen +4.5 | Tigers -4.5
NCAAF Football Gambling Total: O/U: 59
Here’s why I’m backing an OVER bet below in my Midshipmen Tigers free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
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Midshipmen vs. Tigers Gameday
It’s Week 14 of the 2025 regular season, and the Navy Midshipmen head to Memphis for a Thursday night matchup at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium. The game begins at 7:30 PM on ESPN and carries real weight for both teams.
Navy brings an 8-2 record into this contest, including a perfect 6-0 mark at home and a 2-2 record away from Annapolis.
The Midshipmen are coming off a 41-38 win over South Florida, a game that showcased their explosive rushing attack. Their ability to control the tempo has been a major strength throughout the year.
Even so, Memphis enters at 8-3 and remains dangerous despite a two-game skid against East Carolina and Tulane. Their 4-1 home record shows they typically respond well in front of their own crowd.
Navy won the last meeting in 2024 with a 56-44 shootout victory, while Memphis claimed the matchups in 2023 and 2022. With both teams pushing toward strong finishes, this clash should be compelling from the opening kick.
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Navy Midshipmen vs. Memphis Tigers Odds & Last 5
Memphis opens as a -202 favorite on the moneyline, while Navy sits at +167. The spread is listed at -5.5 for the Tigers and +5.5 for the Midshipmen, with the total set at 58.5 points.
In contrast, the recent history between these programs shows tightly contested matchups. Navy’s 56-44 win in 2024 highlighted their offensive firepower, and Memphis controlled the two matchups before that.
For that reason, recent form matters as well. Navy enters off a high-scoring win, while Memphis tries to rebound from losses to East Carolina and Tulane. Home-field advantage may play a role in this one.
Overall, bettors will weigh Navy’s rushing dominance against Memphis’ balanced scoring and returning production.
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Tigers Stats
The Memphis Tigers can score in bunches, posting 398 total points this season to rank 16th nationally. Their ground game contributes heavily with 2,129 rushing yards, putting them 26th in the country.
Likewise, their defense has produced key takeaways. They’ve forced 12 interceptions, ranking 13th, which helps offset the 242 points allowed across the season.
Quarterback Brendon Lewis has been a steady leader with 2,395 passing yards and 13 touchdowns through 11 games. Sutton Smith anchors the rushing attack with 644 yards and seven touchdowns.
Memphis has dropped its last two contests, but earlier wins over Rice and South Florida showed the potential of this roster when all phases click.
Midshipmen Stats
The Navy Midshipmen rely on the nation’s most productive rushing offense, piling up 3,109 yards to rank first in the country. Their passing game remains limited, ranking 129th with only 1,400 total yards.
At the same time, their defense thrives on forcing turnovers. Navy has recovered seven fumbles and secured five interceptions, ranking inside the national top ten in both categories.
Recent performance has been mixed with a 41-38 win over South Florida followed by a 49-10 loss to Notre Dame. The ability to rebound from tough stretches will determine how they finish the season.
Injuries could affect Navy’s rotation with Cody Howard and Ian Pourciau listed as questionable. Season-ending losses of Dylan Spelios and Tyler Bradley also impact depth moving forward.
Midshipmen vs. Tigers QB Matchup
Memphis quarterback Brendon Lewis leads his team with 2,395 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, and six interceptions through 11 games. His productivity keeps the offense balanced and difficult to defend.
As a result, Arrington Maiden has served primarily as a reserve, contributing 59 passing yards across six appearances. His role remains limited behind Lewis.
Navy’s passing production comes mainly from Blake Horvath, who has thrown for 1,290 yards and eight touchdowns over nine games. His five interceptions reflect the risks tied to Navy’s occasional play-action looks.
Braxon Woodson provides supplementary depth with 110 passing yards in five contests, giving Navy a second option when needed.
Navy Midshipmen vs. Memphis Tigers bottom line: Navy’s rushing edge keeps them competitive, but Memphis’ home field and passing efficiency give them a slight advantage in a game that could stay close late.
Navy Midshipmen vs. Memphis Tigers Football Betting Trends
- Navy is 8-1 straight up in their last 9 games after a win.
- Navy has hit the over in 14 of their last 17 games after a win.
- Navy is 17-11 against the spread as an underdog in their last 28 games.
- Memphis is 25-4 straight up as a favorite in their last 29 games.
- Additionally, Memphis is 11-1 straight up in their last 12 home games.
- Memphis has hit the over in their last 4 games following a loss.
Midshipmen Tigers Free Pick: Over 58.5
Here is my Midshipmen Tigers free pick. Navy has been one of the best over teams in the country following a win, cashing 14 of their last 17 in that spot.
Their confidence and pace typically spike after a victory, and with the nation’s top-ranked rushing attack, they can generate steady scoring drives.
Memphis has also leaned heavily toward high-scoring results after setbacks, hitting the over in four straight following a loss. Their offense ranks 16th in points scored and tends to respond aggressively at home.
My system tells me both offenses are built to push this total beyond 58.5.
With Navy’s rushing machine and Memphis’s explosive attack, long drives and big plays should come early and often. Over 58.5 is the play.
Today’s NCAAF Free Pick
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NCAAF Betting Tweet Of The Day
Tiger territory 🐅#ALLIN | #GoTigersGo pic.twitter.com/c183uFqqJx
— Memphis Football (@MemphisFB) November 25, 2025
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