Free NCAA Football Prediction: Midshipmen vs. Falcons Odds
Looking for Navy Midshipmen vs. Air Force Falcons free picks? College football betting sees the Midshipmen taking on the Falcons on Saturday, October 1st at Falcon Stadium in Colorado Springs, CO. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NCAA football season long so stay tuned for more FREE college football game Week 5 predictions like this Navy-AFA free pick.
College Football Handicapping Analysis: Week 5
(1-2) Navy Midshipmen vs. Air Force Falcons (3-1)
Date: Saturday, October 1st, 2022
Time: 12:00 pm EST
Venue: Falcon Stadium, Colorado Springs, CO
NCAA Football ATS Spread Odds: NAV +14.5 | AFA -14.5 (Bet Now!)
NCAA Football Moneyline Odds: Midshipmen +450 | Falcons -650
NCAA Betting Total Odds: O/U 37.5
The Navy Midshipmen will travel to Colorado Springs and take on the Air Force Falcons for a battle of academy’s from Falcon Stadium this Saturday on CBS. Air Force will open as the 14-point favorites here at home, with the total opening at a dicey 37.5.
HISTORY: Air Force and Navy have met in nearly every season since 1966. The Falcons hold a 42-32 all-time series lead after winning three of the last four meetings, and head coaches Troy Calhoun and Ken Niumatalolo hold a 7-7 record against each other. The winner of this one will inch one step closer to lifting the Commander-in-Chief’s trophy.
Navy Midshipmen
Navy did not the 2022 season well, opening up with a pair of home losses. In the opener, the Midshipmen fell to nearby FCS school Delaware and mustered just 7 points. They welcomed Memphis to town for their AAC opener, and got overpowered offensively, losing by 24. The Naval Academy went into their bye week needing a jolt, and they may have somehow gotten that.
Last weekend, Navy (+16.5) defeated East Carolina in Greenville in double overtime, 23-20.
It’s never been about passing for Ken Niumatalolo and Navy, but Tai Lavatai had a pretty good game passing the ball against ECU. Lavatai went 7/10 for 152 yards and a touchdown, and if you know academy football, that’s impressive, especially in a road-winning effort. Lavatai has endured his struggles on the ground, and he’ll need to get something going there if Navy wants to compete.
Lavatai has thrown for 386 passing yards with two touchdowns to no interceptions, while rushing for 101 yards and two more touchdowns.
Navy has worked through three ball carriers to begin the season. Running back Maquel Haywood boasts team-leads of 149 rushing yards on 5.5 yards per carry. Fullback Anton Hall Jr. has 132 rushing yards, and he’s scored the lone touchdown from the running back room. Fellow fullback Daba Fofana has contributed 106 yards.
Air Force Falcons
Air Force opened the season with a pair of home victories. The Falcons first dispatched FCS power Northern Iowa in the opener, before defeating in-state foe and Power 5 school Colorado by 31 in Week 2. The Academy ended up opening Mountain West play with a lost to Wyoming, but they bounced back last Friday at home.
Last week, Air Force defeated Nevada, 48-20, covering the massive 24-point margin.
Haaziq Daniels looks good here in Year 3 for the Falcons. It’s also never been about tossing the pigskin for Air Force, but the senior quarterback has surpassed the 100-yard mark twice already. Daniels has totaled 407 yards (218 pass, 179 rush) and five touchdowns (3 pass, 2 rush) through the first four games.
Daniels only had to attempt two passes last week, largely in part to the Falcons dominant run game Brad Roberts has been incredibly efficient with his touches, and he may represent the best player on the field in this one. Roberts gashed Nevada for 123 yards and three scores, bringing his season totals to 465 rushing yards and a MWC-leading seven touchdowns.
John Lee Eldridge III has been pretty impressive himself. The junior back has reach the 100-yard mark in each of the last two games, and he’s averaging a whopping 10.2 yards per carry. Eldridge III is second on the team in rushing yards (379).
NCAA Football Handicapping Trends
- NAV are 3-3 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
- AF are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
- Midshipmen are 3-5 ATS in their last 8 road games.
- Falcons are 5-3 ATS in their last 8 home games.
Free Week 5 NCAA Football Final Analysis:
We know what the consensus pick is here for an Academy matchup, but with Air Force being a clear-cut favorite and the number on the total dropping, we want to turn our attention to the margin. How Navy managed to defeat ECU on the road is kind of puzzling, but Air Force’s dominance in the trenches isn’t. Air Force could really lay the points here, as Navy’s non-existence offense might not be able to capitalize on the few opportunities they’ll receive.
We know what to expect here. A lot of hands in the dirt. A lot dive, gut, off tackle and zone. All of the things that make Academy football desirable. We’re going to buck the trend a bit, and roll with the Falcons at home here.
Take Air Force’s spread for what should be a physical battle, and as you know, never shy away from an Academy under.
4* Free Week 5 NCAA Betting Pick: Air Force -14
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