Free NCAAF Pick: Bears vs. Blue Raiders Odds
Looking for Missouri State Bears vs. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Free NCAA Week 7 picks & NCAA odds? NCAAF betting sees the Bears taking on the Blue Raiders on 10/8 at Johnny “Red” Floyd Stadium, in Middle Tennessee. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all NCAA football matchups all season long so stay tuned for more FREE daily NCAAF predictions like this Bears Blue Raiders free pick.
2025 NCAAF Handicapping – Missouri State Bears vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
(2-3) Missouri State Bears vs. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (1-4)
Date: Oct 08, 2025
Time: 7:30 PM ET
Venue: Johnny “Red” Floyd Stadium in Middle Tennessee, TN
NCAAF Moneyline Odds: Bears -133 | Blue Raiders +110 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NCAAF Spread Betting Odds: Bears -2.5 | Blue Raiders +2.5
NCAAF Football Gambling Total: O/U: 51
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Bears vs. Blue Raiders Gameday
To kick things off, the Missouri State Bears head into Week 7 sitting at 2-3. They’ve split their road games at 1-1 and hold a 0-1 mark in conference play. Naturally, they’ll be desperate to climb back to .500 before this stretch gets ugly.
Meanwhile, the MTSU Blue Raiders limp in at 1-4, still searching for their first home win of the year. They’re 0-2 at Johnny “Red” Floyd Stadium and dragging a two-game skid behind them like a bad habit.
Recently, the Bears dropped a close one to Western Kentucky, 27-22, despite showing flashes of life. However, they also lit up UT Martin for 42 points, so the offense clearly has juice when it clicks.
On the flip side, Middle Tennessee’s offense continues to sputter.
They fell to Kennesaw State 24-16 last time out and haven’t cracked 25 points all season. Their only win? A grind-it-out 14-13 squeaker over Nevada.
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It’s Week 7 — Missouri State Bears vs. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders — and we’ll see who can finally string together a complete 60 minutes.
Missouri State Bears vs. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Odds & Last 5
According to the latest odds, Missouri State is the slight favorite at -132 on the moneyline and laying -2.5 points at -111. On the other side, Middle Tennessee sits as the underdog at +111 with a spread of +2.5 (-109).
In their most recent outing, the Bears competed hard but came up short against Western Kentucky, 27-22. They’ve still shown the ability to move the football — that 42-point explosion versus UT Martin was proof.
Conversely, the Blue Raiders’ defense continues to leak at critical moments. They allowed 24 points to Kennesaw State and 42 to Marshall, exposing their secondary. With both teams 0-1 in Conference USA play, someone finally leaves this one with a conference win on national TV (ESPN2).
Blue Raiders Stats
For starters, MTSU’s offensive production has been below average. They rank 89th in total points (82) and 75th in passing yards (1,148). Moreover, their rushing attack ranks a dismal 122nd, piling up only 411 yards — yikes.
Defensively, things aren’t much prettier. They’ve surrendered 155 points (96th nationally). Still, there are bright spots: nine sacks (15th), plus elite turnover creation ranking 4th in interceptions and 6th in fumble recoveries.
Recently, they’ve run into buzzsaws — losses to Kennesaw State and Marshall — but that narrow Nevada win proved they can hang in close games. Quarterback Nicholas Vattiato has thrown for 1,132 yards and six TDs, while Jekail Middlebrook (340 yards, 2 TDs) adds some punch on the ground.
Nahzae Cox leads all receivers with 341 yards and four touchdowns, clearly Vattiato’s go-to option.
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Bears Stats
In contrast, the Missouri State Bears have been more balanced offensively. They sit 49th in passing yards (1,309) — a massive improvement from last season’s struggles — though their rushing game still ranks 111th.
Defensively, the Bears thrive on creating chaos. They’re top-five nationally in both interceptions (3) and fumble recoveries (4). However, giving up 158 points (98th) shows there’s still work to do.
Their recent performances have been a mixed bag — a strong 42-10 win over UT Martin followed by a competitive 27-22 loss to Western Kentucky.
Quarterback Jacob Clark has been the heartbeat, throwing for 1,195 yards (56th nationally) and eight touchdowns, though his six picks have been costly. Running back Shomari Lawrence anchors the ground game with 286 yards and two scores, offering a needed complement.
What do you think? Drop your picks and predictions for this Missouri State vs. Middle Tennessee matchup below!
Bears vs. Blue Raiders QB Matchup
Nicholas Vattiato continues to carry Middle Tennessee’s offense. Through five games, he’s thrown for 1,132 yards and six touchdowns but has also tossed four interceptions. Backup Stanley Anderson-Lofton has barely seen the field, logging just 11 passing yards.
For Missouri State, Jacob Clark has been more productive statistically, throwing for 1,195 yards and eight touchdowns — but his six interceptions have come at bad times.
Backup Deuce Bailey has chipped in limited action, completing passes for 57 yards and one touchdown across two appearances.
Missouri State Bears vs. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Football Betting Trends
- Missouri State is 4-1 in over/under in their last 5 away games.
- They are 5-2 against the spread after a loss in their last 7 games.
- Also, Missouri State is 6-3 against the spread in all games over the last 9 games.
- MTSU has an 8-4-1 over/under record at home in their last 13 games.
- Additionally, MTSU is 13-11 straight up in home games over their last 24 games.
- They have a 7-6 over/under record after a loss in their last 13 games.
Bears vs Blue Raiders Prediction: Over 51
Here is my Bears Blue Raiders free pick. First, Missouri State has been a steady over team on the road, cashing four of their last five away, and their offense sits 77th in points to keep the pace quick.
Meanwhile, Middle Tennessee has leaned to overs at home with an 8-4-1 mark in Murfreesboro. Moreover, their defense has leaked 155 points (96th), which should gift the Bears extra chances to finish drives.
Additionally, both teams can trade blows, and Missouri State is 6-3 ATS in their last nine, a sign they hang around. Consequently, competitive scripts boost snaps, possessions, and late scoring.
Neither secondary consistently flips the field, so expect chains to move and red-zone looks to stack. Likewise, tempo should tick up once both staffs adjust after halftime.
Given these trends and leaky defenses, Over 51.0 is my best bet for Bears Blue Raiders.
In fact, travel and venue trends align with points: the Bears’ road overs and the Blue Raiders’ home overs have both paid. This matchup profile screams pace, efficiency, and enough explosives to push past the number.
Finally, the total itself is friendly at 51, which two capable offenses can clear with a couple sustained marches and one splash play. Therefore, I’m projecting a median in the mid-50s with upside if short fields pop from turnovers.
Today’s NCAAF Free Pick
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NCAAF Betting Tweet Of The Day
Final from GA.#BoroBuiltMiddleMade pic.twitter.com/pp0pqPGrFB
— Middle Tennessee Football (@MT_FB) September 28, 2025
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