Free NCAAF Pick: Bears vs. Red Wolves Odds
Looking for Missouri State Bears vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves Free NCAA Xbox Bowl picks & NCAA odds? NCAAF betting sees the Bears taking on the Red Wolves on 12/18 at Ford Center At The Star, in Frisco, TX. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all NCAA football matchups all season long so stay tuned for more FREE daily NCAAF predictions like this Bears Red Wolves free pick.
2025 NCAAF Handicapping – Missouri State Bears vs Arkansas State Red Wolves
(0-0) Missouri State Bears vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves (0-0)
Date: Dec 18, 2025
Time: 9:00 PM ET
Venue: Ford Center At The Star in Frisco, TX
NCAAF Moneyline Odds: Bears -123 | Red Wolves +101 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NCAAF Spread Betting Odds: Bears -1.5 | Red Wolves +1.5
NCAAF Football Gambling Total: O/U: 56.5
Here’s why I’m backing an Arkansas State ATS bet below in my Bears Red Wolves free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
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Bears vs. Red Wolves Gameday for Xbox Bowl
The Xbox Bowl puts the Missouri State Bears against the Arkansas State Red Wolves at Ford Center At The Star in Frisco, TX. Kickoff is set for 9:00 PM with coverage on ESPN2. The dome setting removes weather from the equation.
Missouri State finished the regular season 7-5 with a 5-3 Conference USA record and went 4-2 away from home. Recent losses to Louisiana Tech and Kennesaw State slowed their momentum, though their road results held up most of the year.
Defensive consistency often decides games played indoors.
Arkansas State wrapped up the season at 6-6 with a matching 5-3 Sun Belt record. They closed strong with a narrow win over Appalachian State, giving them something to build on heading into bowl prep.
These bowl matchups tend to tighten once both teams feel the stakes.
This is the first meeting between Missouri State and Arkansas State. Both sides aim to finish the year on a positive note under the lights.
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It’s the ‘Xbox Bowl’, Missouri State Bears vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves, hopefully we get a great bowl game with lots of action.
Missouri State Bears vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves Odds & Last 5
Missouri State opens as a slight favorite at -122 on the moneyline and -2.5 on the spread. The total is posted at 56.5, pointing toward expectations of steady scoring from both offenses.
The Bears dropped their final two games against Louisiana Tech and Kennesaw State, losing by seven and eight points. In both outings, the defense surrendered more than 40 points, which raised concerns late.
Arkansas State ended the regular season with a one-point win over Appalachian State, throwing for 363 yards in the process.
That result added confidence after several tight losses earlier in the stretch.
Red Wolves Stats
Arkansas State scored 293 points this season, ranking 72nd nationally. Their passing game produced 3,089 yards to rank 39th, while the run game totaled 1,608 yards for a 91st-place mark.
Defensively, they allowed 328 points, ranking 116th, but pressure showed up with 31 sacks, good for 11th. The secondary added 7 interceptions, ranking 8th. Pressure like that can flip drives quickly.
Recent results included the 30-29 win over Appalachian State along with close losses to Louisiana-Lafayette and Southern Miss. In those defeats, they still moved the ball efficiently.
Quarterback Jaylen Raynor leads the way with 3,076 passing yards, ranking 19th nationally.
Injuries remain a factor with Ja’Quez Cross out for the season and several others uncertain.
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Bears Stats
Missouri State scored 305 points to rank 67th and passed for 3,287 yards, placing them 24th. The rushing attack lagged at 1,444 yards, ranking 108th.
Defensively, the Bears allowed 340 points, ranking 122nd, though they created turnovers with 8 interceptions and 8 fumble recoveries, both inside the top 10. They also recorded 22 sacks, ranking 20th.
The Bears lost their last two games, including a 42-30 defeat to Louisiana Tech, after winning back-to-back against UTEP and Liberty. That swing highlights where execution dipped late.
Jacob Clark leads the offense with 2,895 passing yards and 24 touchdowns. Shomari Lawrence has rushed for 964 yards, and Jmariyae Robinson tops receivers with 536 yards.
Injuries could test depth with several players listed day to day.
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Bears vs. Red Wolves QB Matchup
Jaylen Raynor has thrown for 3,076 yards across 12 games, ranking 19th nationally, with 16 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. His arm talent drives Arkansas State’s offense.
Raynor leads the Red Wolves in both passing yards and touchdowns, though the interception count remains something they manage around.
Jacob Clark guides Missouri State with 2,895 passing yards in 11 games, ranking 28th nationally. He has added 24 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.
Clark’s production keeps Missouri State competitive week to week.
Missouri State Bears vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves bottom line: ball security and red-zone execution should decide this bowl matchup.
Missouri State Bears vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves Football Betting Trends
- Missouri State has gone 3-0 on the Over/Under in their last 3 games.
- They are 5-1 straight up as favorites in their last 6 games.
- Also, the Bears have a 4-1 straight-up record in their last 5 away games.
- Arkansas State is 5-0 against the spread as underdogs in their last 5 games.
- Additionally, the Red Wolves have covered the spread in all 4 games after a win this season.
- They are 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games with totals of 50 or more.
Bears Red Wolves Free Pick: Arkansas State +2.5
Here is my Bears Red Wolves free pick: Missouri State has handled business when favored, winning five of their last six straight up, but this matchup isn’t just about who wins.
The spread tells a different story, and that’s where Arkansas State keeps showing value.
Also, the Red Wolves have been rock-solid when catching points, covering in all five of their last five games as underdogs. That reliability matters, especially in tighter lines where execution outweighs raw talent.
Arkansas State has consistently found ways to stay inside the number even when the matchup looks uncomfortable.
Besides, Arkansas State has covered the spread in every game following a win this season, which points to a team that carries momentum well. They’ve also gone 6-1 ATS in games with totals of 50 or more, showing comfort when the pace picks up.
Defensively, the Red Wolves have had issues, ranking near the bottom in points allowed, but that hasn’t stopped them from cashing tickets. Their ability to trade scores and avoid getting buried has kept spreads manageable.
At the end of the day, Missouri State may be the steadier team, but Arkansas State has been the better spread side in spots like this.
My NCAAF read makes Red Wolves +2.5 the right play. I’m backing Arkansas State.
Today’s Xbox Bowl NCAAF Free Pick
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NCAAF Betting Tweet Of The Day
We are Corey Rucker Jr. days away from kickoff‼️
Red Wolf Nation we are getting close to spotting the 🏈 #WolvesUp🐺 I #PoundTheRock🪨🔨 pic.twitter.com/MNYiv7oXuA— Arkansas State Football (@AStateFB) December 11, 2025
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