Free Outback Bowl Prediction: Bulldogs vs Hawkeyes Odds
Looking for Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Iowa Hawkeyes free picks? Outback Bowl sees the Bulldogs taking on the Hawkeyes Tuesday January 1st at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NCAA football season long so stay tuned for more FREE college football predictions like this Mississippi State Iowa Outback Bowl free pick.
College Football Handicapping: 2019 Outback Bowl
(8-4) Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4)
Date: Tuesday, January 1st 2018
Time: 12:00 pm EST
Venue: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
NCAA Football Spread: Mississippi State -6.5
NCAA Betting Total: 44.5
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Mississippi State and Iowa find themselves in New Year’s Day bowls after solid 2018 campaigns. For the Hawkeyes it was a rough patch down the stretch that doomed them as they dropped three straight to Penn State, Purdue, and Northwestern.
Mississippi State saw their woes earlier in the year with defeats to Kentucky, Florida, and LSU at the start of conference play.
Iowa is very familiar with the Outback Bowl experience, playing in the game for the third time in six years.
They met up with another SEC team in 2017 and were destroyed by Florida 30-3. Mississippi State also made the short trip to Florida for their last bowl appearance, a 31-27 win over Louisville in the Taxslayer Bowl in Jacksonville. Both teams should be represented well by their fan bases.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
The Bulldogs took an obligatory loss to Alabama (like everybody else in college football this season) on November 10th but has played very well aside from that game.
Aside from the Crimson Tide game, Mississippi State opponents scored a grand total of 25 points in four games to end the year. The Bulldogs have outscored Louisiana Tech, Arkansas, and Mississippi by a total of 132-12 in the games besides the Alabama game the last month.
The Bulldogs offense is definitely clicking with point scoring numbers like that over the last four games. It’s definitely been the running game fueling the wins as Miss St. has 280+ on the ground in 3 of 4.
The Bulldogs ran for just 44 yards vs. Alabama and will have a tough matchup with Iowa having a top 10 ground defense in the country this year.
Speaking of tough defenses, you have to love the Mississippi State attack that is #1 in the nation in points allowed this season with just 12 per game.
The Bulldogs allow only 104.2 on the ground and 164.2 through the air so Iowa’s 76th ranked offense will be in trouble in this one.
Iowa has won two in a row to end the regular season but those are two very overrated victories against Illinois and Nebraska. You do have to give the Hawkeyes offense at least a little bit of credit however as they’ve gone for 31+ points in 3 of the last 4 and have five 36+ games this season.
Something the Hawkeyes have the tendency to do even in losses is keep the game close. Their 3 game losing streak came by a combined 12 points.
How can Iowa get any offense going against the Mississippi State defense? QB Nate Stanley has seen his share of ire in Iowa City and he’s thrown for 205 yards or less in 4 of the last 6.
The Hawkeyes do seem to have found a running game as Mekhi Sargent has ran for 120+ the last two but once again you have to look at the competition. Then again the Bulldogs have put up great numbers in the last month – but they’ve been favored by 12.5 to 23 points in three of those games.
The Iowa defense limiting Mississippi State is going to be the saving grace for the Hawkeyes to cover the +6.5.
Then again, Iowa has allowed 28+ points in three of the last five so maybe they are losing some steam on that side of the ball down the stretch. Know one thing, the Bulldogs rushing game isn’t going to be sympathetic.
NCAA Football Handicapping Trends
- Under is 16-5 in MSST last 21 games on grass.
- Under is 19-7 in MSST last 26 games overall.
- MSST are 9-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- IOWA are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
- Over is 8-2 in IOWA last 10 games overall.
- Over is 10-3-1 in IOWA last 14 games on grass.
Free Outback Bowl NCAA Football Pick
Senior Nick Fitzgerald is a dual threat QB that is going to determine this game one way or the other for Mississippi State. He’s thrown for just 1615 yards, but has 11TD to 0 INT the last five contests.
Throw in another 1018 from the Bulldogs QB on the ground and it’s hard to see anybody on the Iowa offense stepping up to match that production.
4* Free NCAA Betting Pick: Mississippi State -6.5
this is the first New Year’s Day bowl game for Mississippi State since the 2013 Gator Bowl and you can expect a jacked up fan base in this one. It’s an hour flight from Starkville to Tampa so expect the Bulldogs to be represented well. Iowa had a great season early on, but they were exploited later on in the season.
MSU jumps on the Hawks on defense while the Bulldogs completely clip Iowa’s wings on offense.
Outback Bowl Free Score Prediction: Mississippi State 41 – Iowa 24
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