Free NCAA Football Prediction: Michigan vs. Penn State Odds
Looking for Michigan Wolverines vs. Penn State Nittany Lions free picks? College football betting sees the Wolverines taking on the Nittany Lions on Saturday, October 15th, 2022, at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, MI. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NCAA football season long so stay tuned for more FREE college football game predictions like this Wolverines-Nittany Lions free pick.
College Football Handicapping Analysis: Michigan Wolverines vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Michigan Wolverines (6-0) vs. Penn State Nittany Lions (5-0)
Date: Saturday, October 15th, 2022
Time: 12:00 pm EST
Venue: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI
NCAA Football ATS Spread Odds: Wolverines -7 / Nittany Lions +7 (Bet Now!)
NCAA Football Moneyline Odds: Michigan -284 / Penn State +224
NCAA Betting Total Odds: O/U 52.5
A Big Ten battle of undefeated teams, #5 versus #10 is the game of the year for the conference.
After playing the nation’s weakest non-conference schedule, Michigan has ripped off three straight conference wins but saw the AP poll drop them from #4 to #5. The Wolverines made their first appearance in college football’s four team scrum for the national title last season by dispatching Ohio State for the first time in over a decade and they’ll likely have to do it again this year.
I’ve written about Penn State more than once this year about the incredible swings they’ve gone through as a program since 2017. Like Michigan, Penn State’s one giant roadblock is Ohio State but Michigan shouldn’t be taken lightly either. The homefield advantage for Michigan is sizable, so we will have to take a close look at the numbers to determine the edge here.
The story of this game? If you wanna be the man, you gotta beat the man.
Michigan Wolverines
JJ McCarthy won the starting job from Cade McNamara after a bizarre QB competition that lasted into the third week of the season. The former 5-star recruit is easily more dynamic than the methodical McNamara, but he’s far more prone to turnovers caused by ill-timed improvisation. Penn State’s defense has been a monster this season and the secondary generates a load of havoc (3rd), something McCarthy will have to tread lightly with.
Blake Corum leads a backfield that runs the ball about 60% of the time, and they’re highly successful in doing so (6th). Not that it’s necessarily a negative, but they don’t sport much explosiveness out of the backfield and take much more of a, death by a thousand cuts, approach.
On the defensive side of the ball, Michigan has done exceptionally well knocking offenses off schedule (15th) and now get an opponent who doesn’t flash in the offensive advanced stats department. Granted, we have to look at any of Michigan’s stats with a grain of skepticism given their schedule to date, but they’ve been superb in shutting down opponents on third down, only allowing a 31% conversion percentage (20th).
Penn State Nittany Lions
If you’ve been betting on college football for the past few years, you know that Sean Clifford has been prone to Jay Cutler-esque meltdowns that spoil the Penn State number. Credit to the veteran signal caller, he’s mostly shed that persona and has led the Nittany Lions to a perfect 5-0 start.
Penn State runs a balanced offense, but they’re far more successful passing the ball. They’ve scored a touchdown on 38.6% of drives (25th), but don’t run tempo, coming in at 80th in seconds/play. The Nittany Lions have scored around 34 ppg this year, but they’ve played a pretty weak schedule themselves. Michigan represents their first ranked opponent and they will be on the road no less.
Penn State does show quite a bit of explosiveness in their offensive profile (13th) which is something we have to consider when taking a dog. If you can hit the homerun play, it goes a long way into covering a number, but Michigan has been equally impressive in limiting explosiveness.
It does need to be considered though that Penn State was on bye last week, so not only do they have more rest than Michigan, they’ve also had more preparation time for their opponent. This is probably the most overlooked edge in football.
Alright, so we know that Michigan loves to run the ball, and they’re pretty good at it so the question for Penn State is incredibly simple: can you stop the run? Penn State ranks top-40 in defensive rushing success rate, and they’ve been decent in limiting explosiveness. But Levi, what about McCarthy’s playmaking ability? Great question! Penn State is even better defending the pass and we’ve already mentioned their ability to generate havoc in the back half of the defense.
NCAA Football Handicapping Trends
- Penn State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Penn State’s last 6 games when playing on the road against Michigan
- Michigan is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
- Michigan is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home
4* Free Michigan Wolverines vs. Penn State Nittany Lions NCAA Betting Final Analysis:
Penn State and Michigan are very familiar with one another as they share the same side of the Big Ten. The implications in this game are massive. The loser plainly will not make the college football playoff. Period.
In a game of eat, or be eaten, I see both teams bringing intensity that borders on desperation. To me that signals a rock fight of a game, which pushes me towards taking the under. Neither team uses tempo and they love to win in the trenches. Old school, Big Ten football, baby.
It’s a monumental task for Penn State to stroll into Ann Arbor and end Michigan’s high hopes, so I think Michigan still comes out the winner, but this game won’t feature a ton of points. Go with the under.
4* Free Michigan Wolverines vs. Penn State Nittany Lions NCAA Betting Pick: u52.5
Michigan Wolverines vs. Penn State Nittany Lions Free Score Prediction: Wolverines 21 – Nittany Lions 17 (Bet Now!)If you’re looking for more picks like this Michigan Wolverines vs. Penn State Nittany Lions matchup we’ll be providing 4* free College football game predictions on the blog all season long, and check out our Experts for guaranteed premium & free CFB Football picks!
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