Free NCAA Football Prediction: Michigan State vs. Wisconsin Odds
Looking for Michigan State Spartans vs. Wisconsin Badgers free picks? College football betting sees the Spartans taking on the Badgers on Saturday, October 15th, 2022, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, MI. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NCAA football season long so stay tuned for more FREE college football game predictions like this Spartans Badgers free pick.
College Football Handicapping Analysis: Michigan State Spartans vs. Wisconsin Badgers
Michigan State Spartans (2-4) vs. Wisconsin Badgers (3-3)
Date: Saturday, October 15th, 2022
Time: 4:00 pm EST
Venue: Spartan Stadium
NCAA Football ATS Spread Odds: Spartans +7.5 / Badgers -7.5 (Bet Now!)
NCAA Football Moneyline Odds: Michigan State +240 / Wisconsin -309
NCAA Betting Total Odds: O/U 49.5
This Big Ten matchup sees two teams whose seasons haven’t gone to expectation, with Wisconsin already letting go of their head coach and another who can’t financially do so.
I’ve covered the Mel Tucker side of Michigan State once before in a piece, so I’ll refrain from reprising the role of head coach persecutor. After a 2-0 start against a weak schedule, they’ve lost four in a row including three conference games. The remaining schedule has three ranked opponents, so it’s an uphill battle to make a bowl.
Wisconsin has been equally meh this year, splitting their schedule, but really only beating really bad teams. Paul Chryst paid for the slow start (more likely got paid, in a lump sum) with his job. They absolutely drubbed Northwestern last week, so it’s possible that with an interim at the helm, they can still find something that works and salvage the season.
This game isn’t likely to draw many viewers, and like their Big Ten compatriots Penn State and Michigan, these two teams are likely headed for a rock fight of a game.
Michigan State Spartans
I’ve said it before, but it’s worth bringing back up — the Spartans dearly miss Kenneth Walker. They’ve evolved into a passing offense, but Payton Thorne has struggled to keep the offense on schedule (63rd) and they sport little to no explosiveness.
Ohio State is one of the most complete teams in the country, so it’s hard to penalize Michigan State too much, but they amassed 7 rushing yards. Yep, only 7 yards all game. Wisconsin offers a much better matchup for Michigan State however, ranking 60th in defensive rushing success rate, compared to Ohio State’s 3rd best rank.
Scoring has been an issue over the last three weeks for Sparty, averaging less than 14 ppg. I wouldn’t consider Wisconsin to be an offensive juggernaut, but they’ll have to start scoring more if they hope to get off the schneid.
Defensively, Michigan State has allowed 37.3 ppg during their 4 game losing streak, evidenced by their poor marks in both defensive success rate (96th) and allowing explosiveness (95th). The defense also sports very little havoc, so it’s easiest to say that Michigan State just doesn’t put any pressure on the opposing offense to make plays.
Wisconsin Badgers
Jim Leonhard won his head coaching debut in convincing fashion after taking over for the deposed Chryst. I said it when it initially happened, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the interim label removed from Leonhard at the end of the season.
Graham Mertz went nuclear in Evanston last Saturday, completing 20 of 29 passes for 299 yards and 5 touchdowns. The benefactor of Mertz’ newfound offensive prowess was junior wideout Chimere Dike, going off for 10 catches, 135 yards and 3 scores.
Wisconsin still managed to run the ball 38 times, but they’re more successful throwing (28th) than they are running (54th). Michigan State does show up in defensive power success rate at 26th, so Wisconsin may depend on Mertz to get points on the board.
The Badgers will need to stop Michigan State from being successful on passing plays and to date, they’ve struggled in that department (69th). They’ve allowed a fair amount of explosiveness through the air as well, but the secondary generates the 12th most havoc in the country.
NCAA Football Handicapping Trends
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Wisconsin’s last 5 games
- Wisconsin is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games
- Michigan State is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Michigan State’s last 5 games at home
4* Free Michigan State Spartans vs. Wisconsin Badgers NCAA Betting Final Analysis:
Wisconsin is the more successful offense between the two, but they are snails in pace (115th). Interim bumps are a tricky thing to judge as well; are the wins sustainable or is it just a temporary boost of fire?
Michigan State is trending down and pretty much any angle you look at them, it’s difficult to say they do any one thing well.
My gut tells me that 7.5 points is too many for Wisconsin to lay on the road, but the data tells me that right now is not the time to side with Michigan State. Go Badgers.
4* Free Michigan State Spartans vs. Wisconsin Badgers NCAA Betting Pick: Wisconsin -7.5
Michigan State Spartans vs. Wisconsin Badgers Free Score Prediction: Spartans 17 – Badgers 28 (Bet Now!)If you’re looking for more picks like this Michigan State Spartans vs. Wisconsin Badgers matchup we’ll be providing 4* free College football game predictions on the blog all season long, and check out our Experts for guaranteed premium & free CFB Football picks!
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