Free NCAA Football Prediction: Tigers vs. Bulldogs Odds
Looking for Memphis Tigers vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs free picks? College football betting sees the Tigers taking on the Bulldogs on Saturday, September 3rd at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, MS. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NCAA football season long so stay tuned for more FREE college football game Week 1 predictions like this Memphis-Mississippi State free pick.
College Football Handicapping Analysis: Week 1
(0-0) Memphis Tigers vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs (0-0)
Date: Saturday, September 3rd, 2022
Time: 7:30 pm EST
Venue: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, Mississippi
NCAA Football ATS Spread Odds: MEM +15.5 | STATE -15.5 (Bet Now!)
NCAA Football Moneyline Odds: Tigers -450 | Bulldogs +340
NCAA Betting Total Odds: O/U 57.5
The Memphis Tigers will cross the state border and travel to Stark Vegas to take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs from Davis Wade Stadium.
Memphis and Mississippi State have crossed paths 55 times, with the Bulldogs holding a 33-12 series lead. These two southern schools met in every season from 1974-2003, and the Tigers were able to win last year’s meeting, 31-29.
Mississippi State is favored to win by 15 here at home, with the total opening at 55.5
Memphis Tigers
Memphis competed well in Ryan Silverfield’s second season, posting a 6-6 record in 2021. Three of those losses came by 3 points or less, and the Tigers did a great job covering last season, posting an 8-4 record.
Seth Henigan will return after starting eleven games as a freshman last year. The 6’3 quarterback burst onto the scene with a five-touchdown performance against Arkansas State on 9/11 and didn’t look back. If he cuts down on the turnover numbers in his second year, the Tigers are going to be competitive once against this season.
Henigan threw for 3,322 passing yards, while tossing 25 touchdowns to eight interceptions in 2021.
The Tigers will bring their entire backfield back from last season. Brandon Thomas led the team in rushing yards (669), racking up 494 of those yards within the first four games. Senior back Rodrigues Clark added 387 yards and 4 touchdowns.
Henigan and the entire offense will feel the loss of stud wideouts Calvin Austin Jr. (74/1,149/8) and Sean Dykes (48/657/7). That’s a ton of production to replace, meaning Javon Ivory and Eddie Lewis will have to step up early. Ivory is the returning leader with 36 catches and 539 receiving yards.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Mississippi State posted their first winning record (7-6) in three years last season, extending their bowl game streak to a school record 12 seasons. Three of their six losses came by three points or less, and it looks like the Mike Leach regime is headed in the right direction.
Leach’s patented offense gave the SEC fits last season, and things are looking up for Year 3. One of the originators of the Air Raid, Leach has posted a 150-103 record since the 2000.
Leach has found his guy in junior quarterback Will Rogers, and we’ve seen this previously with Kliff Kingsbury, Graham Harrell, and Anthony Gordon. Year 3 in the Air Raid means big things for the QB, and Rogers comes into this year fresh off of a stellar sophomore season.
The 6’2 signal caller excelled, completing 75.1% of his passes, amassing for 4,449 passing yards, while tossing 35 touchdowns to just eight interceptions. Rogers should pick right back up where he left off, and even seek revenge after a tough two-point loss to Memphis last year.
Mississippi State runs the ball less than 30% of the time, but they will return two of their top lead backs from 2021, both of whom totaled 900+ yards. Dillon Johnson (485 rush, 422 rec) caught 65 passes and led the Bulldogs in rushing. Fellow junior back Jo’quavious Marks (416 rush, 502 rec) brought in 83 receptions, and scored nine touchdowns.
The Bulldogs will feel the loss of leading receiver Makai Polk, but they will retain starters Jaden Walley and Austin Williams. Walley, a 6′ junior, has caught 50 passes in each of his first two seasons in Starkville, and he scored a team-high six touchdowns last season. Williams returned for his fifth year, and he posted personal-best of 52 catches and 617 receiving yards.
NCAA Football Handicapping Trends
- Memphis are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
- Miss. St. are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
- Tigers are 3-5 ATS in their last 8 home games.
- Bulldogs are 5-3 ATS in their last 8 road games.
Free Week 1 NCAA Football Pick
Mississippi State has big aspirations this season, and getting off to a good start will be key. The last-minute loss to Memphis last season has to be fresh in their minds, and that should provide all of the motivation they need.
4* Free Week 1 NCAA Betting Pick: Under 57.5
The final wave of Mike Norwell’s run at Memphis has moved on and the Tigers will be playing a lot of new players the opener. The Bulldogs will have a distinct experience advantage coming into this one, with the biggest being the quarterback spot. Will Rogers has real Heisman hype, and a big game from him here should lead to a convincing win for the Bulldogs. Stark Vegas should be rocking for this one.
Look for Mississippi State to take down their border rival, and take their spread this weekend. Hail State!
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