Free NCAA Pick: Memphis vs. Iowa State Odds
Looking for Memphis Tigers vs. Iowa State Cyclones free NCAA 2023 AutoZone Liberty Bowl picks & NCAA odds? NCAA betting sees the Tigers taking on the Cyclones on Friday, December 29th at the Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NCAA handicapping picks all season long including all NCAA Bowl games so stay tuned for more FREE NCAA predictions like this Memphis Iowa State matchup.
2023 NCAAF Handicapping Analysis: AutoZone Liberty Bowl
(9-3) Memphis Tigers vs. Iowa State Cyclones (7-5)
2023 AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Date: Friday, December 29th
Time: 3:30 ET
Venue: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, Memphis, TN
AutoZone Liberty Bowl ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Memphis +8.5 | Iowa State -8.5
Liberty Bowl Moneyline Odds: Memphis +251 | Iowa State -323
College Football Betting Total: O/U 57.5
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Memphis and Iowa State did not play last season. Series record you ask? Iowa State leads 1-0.
This Friday’s matchup is filled with intriguing storylines. Memphis aims for its fifth 10-win season, a feat achieved just four times in school history, with three since 2014.
They also seek redemption after a close 2017 bowl loss to Iowa State.
On the other side, the Cyclones have a 1-2 record in this bowl and hope to cap their season with three wins in their last four games
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Memphis Tigers
Memphis is coming off a 45-21 win over the Temple. The Tigers benefited from a strong first-half, going into halftime with a 28-14 lead.
Against the spread, Memphis has gone 4-5-1 this season. The Tigers have been favored seven times compared to three games as the underdog.
Over the course of 12 games, the average over/under line in Memphis’ matchups has been 59 points.
These games have had an average combined score of 68.7 points, leading to an OU record of 8-2.
Memphis Tigers Stats
On the offensive side, Memphis has averaged 39.7 points per game this season.
This figure has them 11th in the NCAA. Their passing game, averaging 301.4 passing yards, is ranked 16th nationally. In terms of rushing, they’re 73rd in rushing yards with an average of 393 rushing attempts per contest this season.
The Tigers’ defense has allowed 172.3 rushing yards per game this season, ranking 91st. Opponents are averaging 253.2 passing yards, and opposing quarterbacks hold a passer rating of 92.7 against Memphis.
They currently rank 33rd in points allowed in the NCAA.
The Tigers’ passing game featured 28 pass attempts for 250 yards and four scores vs. Temple. In the rushing department, they averaged 6.1 yards per carry and notched two rushing touchdowns.
Memphis scores 39.7 PPG, seventh-best nationally, while allowing 29 PPG. They’ve scored 20+ points in 26 straight games, a current national record since 2021.
Iowa State Cyclones
Iowa State heads into this week’s matchup vs. Memphis after beating Kansas State 42-35 in their most recent game.
Against the spread, Iowa State has gone 6-5 this season. The Cyclones have been favored five times compared to six games as the underdog.
So far this season, Iowa State boasts an over/under record of 5-6. On average, their matchups have resulted in a combined score of 47.9 points, while the average over/under line has been 44.5 points.
Iowa State Cyclones Stats
The Cyclones’ heads into the game, averaging 133.4 rushing yards per game and 4 yards per attempt. Overall, they’re 94th in rushing yards and 94th in passing yards at 228.2 yards per contest. Iowa State is averaging 26.2 points per game, which is 61st in the nation.
Through the air, the Cyclones’ attempted 12 passes against Kansas State, gaining 230 yards and securing three scores. On the ground, they maintained an average of 15.1 yards per carry, resulting in three rushing touchdowns.
Coming into this week’s game, the Iowa State defense is 76th in points allowed at 21.7 points per game. So far, team’s have averaged 217.7 passing yards per game vs. the unit (82nd). On the ground, they are giving up 132.9 rushing yards, putting them 53rd in college football.
Where They Stand Heading Into Friday
Memphis stands among elite FBS teams with nine or more consecutive bowl appearances, alongside giants like Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Wisconsin, Iowa, Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, and Clemson.
Under Coach Matt Campbell, Iowa State makes its sixth bowl appearance, a significant stride for a program with just 12 bowl games on their resume.
Memphis Tigers vs. Iowa State Cyclones NCAA Football Betting Trends
- The Tigers are 2-3 in their last five games as an underdog.
- Conversely, the Cyclones are 3-2 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Also, the Tigers are 7-3 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Cyclones have gone 5-5 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Tigers’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 3-0.
- The Cyclones’ have an over/under record of 3-0 in their last 3 games at home.
Memphis vs. Iowa State Line Movement
Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Tigers | +180 | +251 | +6.5 | +8.5 |
Cyclones | -218 | -323 | -6.5 | -8.5 |
4* Free 2023 AutoZone Liberty Bowl NCAA Betting Prediction: Memphis +8.5
In their sole historical clash, Iowa State narrowly defeated Memphis 21-20 in the 2017 Liberty Bowl. Notably, Kyle Kempt and Allen Lazard shined, connecting 10 times for 142 yards and a touchdown, sealing the victory over the 20th-ranked Memphis squad.
I think Memphis can repeat that trick on Friday. Memphis are 5-1 in their last 6 and come in “motivated” which is what we want in a bowl game.
Though I anticipate Iowa State winning outright, I suggest sticking to the moneyline. We do have Memphis covering the spread but Iowa State is the way to go straight-up.
On the spread, I’m taking Memphis at +8.5. I’m expecting the Memphis rushing attack to take advantage of a Iowa State defense that struggled to defend the run in their most recent game. Lock in Memphis +8.5.
On the over/under, I have the best bet being to take the over at 57.5.
This looks like a slam dunk bet for me, as my gut tells me the over will hit as well as our model projecting a combined 58 points.
The total has gone OVER in ALL of the Tigers last 6 games.
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Memphis Tigers vs. Iowa State Cyclones NCAA Betting Tweet Of The Day
24 hours to go🔔
🌪️🚨🌪️ pic.twitter.com/lZc9YI2oKa
— Iowa State Football (@CycloneFB) December 28, 2023
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