Free NCAAF Pick: Tigers vs. Crimson Tide Odds
Looking for LSU Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Free NCAA Week 11 picks & NCAA odds? NCAAF betting sees the Tigers taking on the Crimson Tide on 11/8 at Saban Field at Bryant-Denny Stadium, in Alabama. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all NCAA football matchups all season long so stay tuned for more FREE daily NCAAF predictions like this Tigers Crimson Tide free pick.
2025 NCAAF Handicapping – LSU Tigers vs Alabama Crimson Tide
(5-3) LSU Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1)
Date: Nov 08, 2025
Time: 7:30 PM ET
Venue: Saban Field at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Alabama, AL
NCAAF Moneyline Odds: Tigers +294 | Crimson Tide -387 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NCAAF Spread Betting Odds: Tigers +10.0 | Crimson Tide -10.0
NCAAF Football Gambling Total: O/U: 49.5
Here’s why I’m backing an OVER bet below in my Tigers Crimson Tide free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
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Tigers vs. Crimson Tide Gameday
Get ready for one of college football’s fiercest rivalries — it’s LSU vs. Alabama under the lights in Tuscaloosa. Week 11 brings us a classic SEC showdown at Saban Field inside Bryant-Denny Stadium. Kickoff is set for 7:30 PM ET on ABC, and you can bet the atmosphere will be electric.
LSU enters the matchup at 5-3, reeling after back-to-back losses to Texas A&M and Vanderbilt. The Tigers have been strong at home (4-1) but shaky on the road (1-2). Their offensive flashes haven’t been enough to mask defensive lapses in recent weeks, making this a massive test for Brian Kelly’s group.
Alabama looks every bit like a College Football Playoff contender again. Ranked No. 4 in both the AP and Coaches Poll, the Crimson Tide sit at 7-1 with an unblemished 5-0 SEC record.
They’ve rattled off seven straight wins, and playing at home in front of a primetime crowd is exactly where Nick Saban’s team thrives.
Recent history hasn’t been kind to LSU. Alabama rolled 42-13 in their last meeting and has largely owned the series over the past decade. The Tigers will need a near-perfect performance to flip the script in 2025.
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It’s Week 11, LSU Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide — a matchup that rarely disappoints and always delivers fireworks in November.
LSU Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Odds & Last 5
The oddsmakers have Alabama comfortably favored again. The Crimson Tide sit at -372 on the moneyline, while LSU is a +293 underdog. The spread has Alabama -10, and the total is hovering around the mid-50s — signaling expectations of a competitive but high-scoring contest.
LSU’s recent form tells the story of a team searching for answers. They’ve dropped two straight, including a 49-25 defeat to Texas A&M and a disappointing loss to Vanderbilt. Before that, they looked solid in a win over South Carolina — but inconsistency remains their biggest enemy.
Alabama, on the other hand, is clicking. The Tide have won five straight, including a 29-22 victory over South Carolina and a convincing 34-17 win against Ole Miss.
Ty Simpson’s efficiency and the defense’s ball-hawking ways have fueled their midseason surge.
Alabama Crimson Tide Stats
The Crimson Tide continue to live up to their reputation for balance and dominance. Offensively, they’ve racked up 2,333 passing yards (23rd nationally), but their rushing attack has lagged behind at just 954 yards (111th). Still, the combination of discipline, physicality, and explosive plays keeps defenses guessing.
Defensively, Alabama has been rock solid — allowing only 146 points (59th). Their front seven creates pressure with 15 sacks (17th), while the secondary forces turnovers with 8 interceptions and 6 fumble recoveries. That turnover margin is a big part of why they’ve remained unbeaten in SEC play.
Ty Simpson has been sensational at quarterback, throwing for 2,184 yards and 20 touchdowns to just one interception — elite-level efficiency by any measure. Wideout Germie Bernard has been his go-to guy, racking up 526 yards and six touchdowns.
The Tide defense and special teams have also chipped in key plays all season long, proving once again that Alabama wins in all three phases.
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LSU Tigers Stats
The Tigers’ offensive firepower remains their best weapon — when it shows up. They’ve scored 204 points (75th nationally) while putting up 1,992 passing yards (60th). Their run game, however, has sputtered badly, ranking 118th with just 863 rushing yards.
Defensively, LSU still has teeth. They’ve allowed 151 points (62nd) but have created chaos with 15 sacks (15th), 8 interceptions (11th), and 6 fumble recoveries (10th). The problem? Too many short fields and late-game breakdowns have erased otherwise solid stretches.
Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier has shown flashes of brilliance, throwing for 1,804 yards and 12 touchdowns, though his five interceptions have cost LSU at key moments. Running back Caden Durham leads the ground game with 378 yards, while receivers Zavion Thomas and Barion Brown are steady contributors in the passing attack.
LSU has the playmakers — they just need to string together four complete quarters. Against Alabama, that’s a must.
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Tigers vs. Crimson Tide QB Matchup
Ty Simpson has emerged as one of the most efficient quarterbacks in college football. Through eight games, he’s posted 2,184 passing yards (20th nationally) with 20 touchdowns and just one interception. His ability to extend plays while staying turnover-free makes him the ultimate steady hand in a pressure environment.
Backup Austin Mack has appeared in limited snaps but has been effective, tossing two touchdowns with no picks. Alabama’s depth at QB remains one of its underrated strengths.
For LSU, Garrett Nussmeier has been both the solution and the problem. His 1,804 yards and 12 touchdowns show he can push the ball downfield, but his five interceptions have come in critical moments. Backup Michael Van Buren Jr. has contributed 172 yards and two touchdowns in spot duty, offering a glimpse of the Tigers’ future under center.
LSU Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide bottom line: This rivalry always brings juice, but right now Alabama looks like the more complete team in every phase. Ty Simpson’s accuracy, paired with a defense that thrives on turnovers, should carry the Tide.
LSU Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Football Betting Trends
- The Tigers are 13-9 in Over/Under as an underdog in their last 22.
- Also, the Tigers have gone 10-5 in Over/Under in their last 15 away games.
- The Tigers are 15-9 straight up after a loss in their last 24 games.
- The Crimson Tide have a 29-1 straight-up record at home in their last 30.
- Additionally, the Crimson Tide are 7-0 against the spread in their last 7 home games.
- The Crimson Tide are 17-10 against the spread as a favorite in their last 27.
Tigers Crimson Tide Free Pick: Over 49.5
Here is my Tigers Crimson Tide free pick. LSU continues to be a dependable over team, particularly when cast as the underdog.
They’ve gone 13-9 to the over in that role across their last 22 games, proving they can generate points even when facing top-tier opponents.
Additionally, the Tigers’ road matchups have consistently delivered fireworks, with 10 of their last 15 away games soaring past the total. Their aggressive offensive approach and willingness to take chances downfield make them an ideal team for over bettors.
Alabama’s offensive firepower remains elite, ranking 33rd nationally in points scored this season. Combine that with their dominance at home — winning 29 of their last 30 straight up — and it’s clear the Tide are capable of lighting up the scoreboard in Tuscaloosa.
With LSU’s ability to trade scores and Alabama’s proven explosiveness, this matchup has all the ingredients for a classic SEC shootout.
Both teams feature quarterbacks who can stretch the field and finish drives efficiently. Alabama’s balanced offense should set the pace early, while LSU’s offense is more than capable of keeping things interesting throughout.
Considering both programs’ offensive strengths and LSU’s steady trend toward overs, the over 49.5 looks like the sharp side. Expect plenty of points, big plays, and a scoreboard that stays busy from kickoff to final whistle.
Today’s NCAAF Free Pick
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NCAAF Betting Tweet Of The Day
Jobs not done. pic.twitter.com/ZkctrfInEt
— Alabama Football (@AlabamaFTBL) November 5, 2025
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