Free NCAA Football Prediction: LSU vs. Alabama Odds
Looking for LSU Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide free picks? College football betting sees the Tigers taking on the Crimson Tide on Saturday, November 5th, 2022, at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, LA. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NCAA football season long so stay tuned for more FREE college football game predictions like this Tigers Crimson Tide free pick.
College Football Handicapping Analysis: LSU Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
LSU Tigers (6-2) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1)
Date: Saturday, November 5th, 2022
Time: 7:00 pm EST
Venue: Tiger Stadium
NCAA Football ATS Spread Odds: Tigers +13 / Crimson Tide -13 (Bet Now!)
NCAA Football Moneyline Odds: LSU +380 / Alabama -526
NCAA Betting Total Odds: O/U 57.5
LSU hosts the Crimson Tide looking for an upset and an exclamation point on Brian Kelly’s first season at the helm. Alabama needs to put together impressive wins as they sit on the outside looking in on the CFP.
Brian Kelly’s transition from Notre Dame to LSU has been…odd. I don’t think we’re surprised that he walked out on Notre Dame abruptly, but the fake southern accent, the reports of him being a jerk and an early season loss where a reporter talked trash to his face made us all wonder how long he would last.
To his credit, LSU has done a lot of winning since then and assuaged a lot of concerns. A loss to Tennessee surprised no one given their success, but wins over Florida in the swamp and against #7 Ole Miss were quality. They’ve got another tough task this week hosting Bama.
When is the last time Alabama was ranked 6th in the college football playoff rankings? What a season they’ve been through so far. A one loss Alabama is typically secured in the top 4 but Tennessee’s emergence and undefeated Ohio State, Clemson and Michigan have pushed the Tide down the board.
Here’s the rub: Tennessee and UGA play this weekend, and Ohio State will play Michigan at the end of the month, so two of the top 5 will have a loss. Provided they don’t lose another game here on out and look impressive while they do it, they’ve got a shot. And Saban knows it. I look for Alabama to have some blowouts to close the season.
LSU Tigers
LSU flies under the radar just a little bit because of their two losses, which completely removes them from the college football playoff running, but their offense has actually been quite good. Jayden Daniels leads an offense that’s 10th in success rate and top-20 in offensive PPA.
LSU shades towards the pass more than the run, but star wideout Kayshon Boutte hasn’t really had a big season. While the Tigers have done well staying on schedule when throwing (17th) they don’t show much explosiveness. Alabama is top-15 in defensive passing success rate, so how do the Tigers respond when the pass isn’t working?
In their 45-20 win over Ole Miss, Daniels had 23 rushes for 121 yards and 3 touchdowns. He’s a true dual threat QB and one that may be difficult to game plan for, anyone else remember Hendon Hooker?
The Tigers don’t show much explosiveness in their overall profile though and that’s where they starkly differ from Tennessee. We need to draw parallels between the two teams because Alabama struggled the most they will all season against the Vols. We know Alabama had a dominant run defense going into that game but they were easily dispatched. That helps us decode the game flow here.
SP+ likes the LSU defense (20th) a little more than the offense (27th). Alabama’s rushing game scares me more than their passing, so can LSU stop the run? They’re pretty much average in defensive rushing success rate and front 7 havoc, but they profile better in line yards. Alabama is still top-5 in rush explosiveness and frankly, LSU doesn’t impress in stopping that explosiveness. And we know Saban won’t take his foot off the pedal.
Alabama Crimson Tide
As if we didn’t have enough reason to like Alabama, they’re also coming off a bye. Saban with extra preparation time is an edge we likely won’t want to fade. A 30-6 win over Mississippi State was their last game and one in which they held the Bulldogs to 62 yards rushing.
So Daniels may have a tough day running, but what does Bama look like against the pass? I mentioned they’re top 15 in defensive passing success rate and they’re also 8th in defensive passing downs success rate, so if LSU gets knocked off schedule it’s going to be really hard to convert those 3rd and longs.
Alabama ranks bottom 10 in offensive line yards, stuff rate and 74th in front 7 havoc allowed. It could be a rough day up front. So let’s say the run isn’t working. They boast a top-20 mark in offensive passing success rate and they’re 3rd in passing downs success rate, meaning even when they get in long downs and distances, they convert and keep the drive alive.
Bama is 6th in offensive touchdowns per game with 5.
NCAA Football Handicapping Trends
- Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Louisiana State
- Alabama is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing Louisiana State
- Louisiana State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Louisiana State’s last 6 games when playing at home against Alabama
4* Free LSU Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide NCAA Betting Final Analysis:
Number 10 versus number 6 projects to be a fun one. Not only do the two teams bring a legitimate argument for winning this game, but the implications are fun too.
I’ll admit, I thought I’d be going with Alabama when this article started, due to the extra rest they’ve had and the fact they have to blow everyone out if they want to make the playoff, but LSU has good numbers and they also have the ever important home field advantage.
I also watched every second of the Alabama-Tennessee game, and while the Tigers aren’t the Vols, it showed me that Alabama has real concerns, especially in the secondary. I think the Tigers can keep within 13 in Baton Rouge.
4* Free LSU Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide NCAA Betting Pick: LSU +13
LSU Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Free Score Prediction: Tigers 24 – Crimson Tide 35 (Bet Now!)If you’re looking for more picks like this LSU Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide matchup we’ll be providing 4* free College football game predictions on the blog all season long, and check out our Experts for guaranteed premium & free CFB Football picks!
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