Free NCAAF Pick: Cardinals vs. Mustangs Odds
Looking for Louisville Cardinals vs. SMU Mustangs Free NCAA Week 13 picks & NCAA odds? NCAAF betting sees the Cardinals taking on the Mustangs on 11/22 at Gerald J. Ford Stadium, in SMU. Cappers Picks provides complimentary expert handicapping picks on all NCAA football matchups all season long so stay tuned for more FREE daily NCAAF predictions like this Cardinals Mustangs free pick.
2025 NCAAF Handicapping – Louisville Cardinals vs SMU Mustangs
(7-3) Louisville Cardinals vs. SMU Mustangs (7-3)
Date: Nov 22, 2025
Time: 12:00 PM ET
Venue: Gerald J. Ford Stadium in SMU, TX
NCAAF Moneyline Odds: Cardinals +123 | Mustangs -149 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NCAAF Spread Betting Odds: Cardinals +3.0 | Mustangs -3.0
NCAAF Football Gambling Total: O/U: 53.5
Here’s why I’m backing the bet below in my Cardinals Mustangs free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
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Cardinals vs. Mustangs Gameday
Meanwhile, Week 13 brings a high-leverage matchup as the Louisville Cardinals head to Dallas to take on the SMU Mustangs at Gerald J. Ford Stadium.
This one has the feel of a classic momentum game where one hot start or one blown coverage can tilt everything fast.
The game kicks off at noon on ESPN2 with both teams sitting at 7-3 and hunting late-season positioning. Louisville has been perfect on the road at 3-0 but enters on a two-game skid after narrow losses to Clemson and California. On the other side, SMU owns a 5-1 conference record and a 4-1 mark at home, entering on a two-game win streak.
Previously, these teams met in 2024 with SMU winning 34-27, a result that still holds weight heading into this rematch. With both sides pushing for postseason leverage, this matchup lines up as one of Saturday’s sneaky-important games.
Expert NCAA Football Betting Picks
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It’s Week 13 — Louisville Cardinals vs. SMU Mustangs — and hopefully this one delivers a true November fight.
Louisville Cardinals vs. SMU Mustangs Odds & Last 5
Firstly, SMU enters as the betting favorite at -150 on the moneyline, with Louisville sitting at +125. The spread sits at Mustangs -3, signaling expectations of a competitive game.
Meanwhile, Louisville’s recent form has dipped with back-to-back close losses at home, even though they remain undefeated on the road. Their 3-0 away record adds intrigue to their underdog status.
On the other hand, SMU is rolling with wins over Miami and Boston College, including a dominant 45-13 showing against BC. That combination of momentum and home-field comfort makes them a tough out.
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Mustangs Stats
To begin, SMU’s offense has been explosive through the air, ranking 20th nationally with 2,845 passing yards. Their run game, however, ranks 102nd with 1,225 yards, leaving them heavily dependent on quarterback play.
Next, SMU’s recent performances show real momentum, with wins by both large and narrow margins. They handled Boston College easily and then edged Miami in a tight, balanced contest.
Defensively, the Mustangs excel at pressure, ranking 4th nationally with 33 sacks. Their 8 fumble recoveries rank 5th, underscoring a defense that thrives on chaos and short-field opportunities.
Lastly, quarterback Kevin Jennings leads with 2,810 yards and 21 touchdowns, while Jordan Hudson anchors the receiving corps with 595 yards and four scores.
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Cardinals Stats
To begin, Louisville has shown balance offensively with 315 points scored (38th nationally) and 2,433 passing yards (56th). Their rushing attack sits at 1,575 yards, ranking 70th.
Next, the defense has been a bright spot with only 215 points allowed (77th), powered by 20 sacks (16th) and 12 interceptions (13th). Their ability to win turnover battles has kept them in games even during offensive lulls.
Recently, Louisville has dropped two straight by razor-thin margins after wins over Virginia Tech, Boston College, and Miami. Those losses revealed some late-game execution issues.
Finally, key contributors include quarterback Miller Moss with 2,344 passing yards and receiver Chris Bell with 871 yards. Running back Isaac Brown has 782 yards but remains questionable due to injury.
Cardinals vs. Mustangs QB Matchup
Kevin Jennings leads the Mustangs with 2,810 passing yards, 21 touchdowns, and nine interceptions — a high-volume, high-ceiling profile. Ty Hawkins has served as the reserve with minimal usage.
For Louisville, Miller Moss has logged 2,344 yards and 11 touchdowns, though his seven interceptions have been costly. Brady Allen adds depth with one appearance and a touchdown-to-interception split of 1-1.
Louisville Cardinals vs. SMU Mustangs bottom line: Louisville travels well, but SMU’s passing attack and defensive pressure give the Mustangs the edge at home.
Louisville Cardinals vs. SMU Mustangs Football Betting Trends
- Cardinals have gone 4-0 straight up in their last 4 away games.
- Mustangs are 26-4 straight up as favorites in their last 30 games.
- Cardinals are 11-3 straight up after a loss in their last 14 games.
- Also, the Mustangs are 18-3 straight up in their last 21 home games.
- Additionally, the Cardinals are 4-0 against the spread in their last 4 away games.
- Mustangs have a 21-5 straight up record after a win in their last 26 games.
Cardinals Mustangs Free Pick: Louisville +3
Here is my Cardinals Mustangs free pick. Louisville has been one of the best road teams in the country lately, winning four straight away from home and covering the spread in all four.
That kind of consistency outside their own stadium shows they travel well and don’t get rattled in hostile environments.
SMU may be tough at home, but Louisville’s ability to respond after losses is a major factor here. The Cardinals are 11-3 straight up in their last 14 coming off a defeat, proving they rarely let setbacks linger.
Their defensive motor also gives them an edge, as they rank near the top nationally in both interceptions and fumbles forced.
My system tells me Louisville’s turnover creation and road toughness make +3 extremely playable.
SMU can score, but their offense hasn’t faced many defenses that disrupt timing the way Louisville’s does. The Cardinals’ knack for flipping possessions and creating short fields could tilt momentum quickly.
Considering Louisville’s road form, defensive pressure, and resilience after losses, grabbing the points is the right move. Louisville +3 is the pick.
Today’s NCAAF Free Pick
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NCAAF Betting Tweet Of The Day
One last time at home for our seniors. pic.twitter.com/n6oIfVEpIK
— SMU Football (@SMUFB) November 17, 2025
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