Free NCAA Football Prediction: Kansas State vs. Texas Odds
Looking for Kansas State Wildcats vs. Texas Longhorns free picks? College football betting sees the Wildcats taking on the Longhorns on Saturday, November 5th, 2022, at Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Manhattan, KS. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NCAA football season long so stay tuned for more FREE college football game predictions like this Wildcats Longhorns free pick.
College Football Handicapping Analysis: Kansas State Wildcats vs. Texas Longhorns
Kansas State Wildcats (6-2) vs. Texas Longhorns (5-3)
Date: Saturday, November 5th, 2022
Time: 7:00 pm EST
Venue: Bill Snyder Family Stadium
NCAA Football ATS Spread Odds: Wildcats +2.5 / Longhorns -2.5 (Bet Now!)
NCAA Football Moneyline Odds: Kansas State +115 / Texas -140
NCAA Betting Total Odds: O/U 54.5
Kansas State comes off a romp of Oklahoma State in a 48-0 win that saw them take 2nd place in the Big 12. They take on the 5-3 Longhorns, looking to further solidify their standing.
If the season ended today, the Big 12 title game in Jerry World would be TCU versus these Kansas State Wildcats. We typically gravitate towards Oklahoma, Baylor or Oklahoma State when discussing Big 12 contenders, but credit is due to Chris Kleiman for getting the best out of his team even with NFL departures.
Most expected regression was coming for the Cowboys but Kansas State put an exclamation point on it in their 48-0 win in Manhattan last weekend. They can’t pull their foot off the pedal though. Due to the conference structure, they’ll constantly have a contender right behind them, nipping at their heels.
Whatever our expectations were for the Longhorns this season, they were probably too high. But hey, they say everything is bigger in Texas. 2021 saw the Longhorns finish 5-7 and miss bowl season and absurdly enough, started questions whether Sarkisian was the guy. Quinn Ewers has helped answer the question, along with another QB recruit that has fully solidified Sark on what has been excellent progress made.
Texas may not vie for the conference title this year, but a solid bowl bid and a subsequent win may start chants, however faint, of Texas being back. A road win against the #13 Wildcats wouldn’t be half bad either.
Kansas State Wildcats
Wowza. I figured we would be in over territory on Saturday and with K-state we were. Unfortunately we got zilch from the Cowboys in a 48-0 onslaught. Backup Will Howard acquitted himself nicely in spot start duty with Adrian Martinez out. We didn’t see the same mobility from Howard, but his 296 yards passing and 4 scores were just fine.
We knew coming into the game last week that Kansas State was incredibly explosive on the ground. Deuce Vaughn had a day, rushing for 158 yards on 7.2 yards per carry that has now boosted the Wildcats to the 2nd most explosive rushing attack in the country. Texas has struggled to limit rush explosiveness (97th), a giant edge to K-state.
Another point to the Wildcats: they’re top-15 in limiting havoc. As long as the offense prevents tackles for loss and throwing into tight windows, they should thrive.
Not much better a defense can do than shut out an opponent for 60 minutes. Oklahoma State had been a pretty prolific offense too, averaging almost 40 ppg in conference play. Kansas State ranks 9th in Defensive PPA, a cumulative stat that essentially tells us that when opponents get the ball, it rarely turns into points. SP+ also loves the Wildcat defense, ranking them 8th.
Kansas State does struggle with allowing pass explosiveness (106th) however and that’s something Texas can exploit. Ewers and the Longhorns easily generated explosiveness in their loss to Oklahoma State.
Texas Longhorns
Texas is coming off a bye and should be ready for a home tilt against the #13 Wildcats. I say it all the time, but a rest advantage is one of the most overlooked edges among cappers, though it is growing in salience.
You might look at this matchup and wonder how #24 is favored by 2.5 over #13, but SP+ tells us that really, Texas is the better team. Coming in at 6th on Bill Connelly’s metric, the Longhorns outpace the Wildcats (14th) in both offense and special teams.
Okay, so let’s say for the fun of framing this piece, you’ve been living in a nuclear fallout bunker and you want to know, Levi, who is Texas?
Texas is a balanced run-pass offense that is highly successful (25th). Even with Bijan Robinson, Texas doesn’t sport much explosiveness, but Sark has a methodically run offense that moves the chains. Texas ranks 15th in passing success rate which is usually a sign of good play calling and scheme. They’ll need to be on their best game against K-state’s 15th ranked defensive passing success rate.
Though, should Kansas State knock Texas off schedule, they’re only 76th in passing down success rate, which means they’re not really picking up the 3rd and 8’s.
Texas will need to be able to stop Kansas State’s rushing attack, and though they don’t profile well against explosiveness, they are the nation’s 6th best rush defense by success rate. That should put Kansas State into passing downs often, where they’re just average at converting (63rd).
NCAA Football Handicapping Trends
- Texas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kansas State
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Texas’s last 9 games when playing Kansas State
- Kansas State is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Texas
- Kansas State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
4* Free Kansas State Wildcats vs. Texas Longhorns NCAA Betting Final Analysis:
I’ve been on a streak of Big 12 overs in the last month, often featuring Kansas State. Explosiveness rules.
Kansas State struggles to prevent pass explosiveness, and Texas showed plenty against Oklahoma State.
Kansas State is an incredibly explosive run offense and Texas can’t stop rush explosiveness.
Those two angles figure to result in a lot of points. I’ll admit, the line is a bit fishy to me so I’ll intently and happily stay away from a side here, but the over is an attractive option again. A 28-27 final gets us home, which seems like easy pickings.
4* Free Kansas State Wildcats vs. Texas Longhorns NCAA Betting Pick: o54.5
Kansas State Wildcats vs. Texas Longhorns Free Score Prediction: Wildcats 28 – Longhorns 27 (Bet Now!)If you’re looking for more picks like this Kansas State Wildcats vs. Texas Longhorns matchup we’ll be providing 4* free College football game predictions on the blog all season long, and check out our Experts for guaranteed premium & free CFB Football picks!
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