Free NCAA Football Prediction: Kansas State vs. Oklahoma State Odds
Looking for Kansas State Wildcats vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys free picks? College football betting sees the Wildcats taking on the Cowboys on Saturday, October 29th, 2022, at Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Manhattan, KS. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NCAA football season long so stay tuned for more FREE college football game predictions like this Wildcats Cowboys free pick.
College Football Handicapping Analysis: Kansas State Wildcats vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Kansas State Wildcats (5-2) vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-1)
Date: Saturday, October 29th, 2022
Time: 3:30 pm EST
Venue: Bill Snyder Family Stadium
NCAA Football ATS Spread Odds: Wildcats -1.5 / Cowboys +1.5 (Bet Now!)
NCAA Football Moneyline Odds: Kansas State -121 / Oklahoma State -101
NCAA Betting Total Odds: O/U 56.0
The Big 12 continues to consistently give the nation a matchup of ranked opponents. This week sees the Wildcats defending home turf against the prolific Cowboys.
Kansas State keeps finding their way to my assignment tray and it makes sense with their fun-as-hell schedule. This is their 3rd ranked opponent in their last 5 games, all of which have been top 10 teams. They didn’t quite get over the hump last week against TCU, but losing your starter and second string QB is usually too much to come back from.
Oklahoma State has put together yet another impressive season under Mike Gundy. A win last week against #20 Texas gave them their second ranked win of the year. In fact, their only loss is a quality one — to undefeated TCU. The Big 12 doesn’t use the same structure as other conferences, in that it’s not split into divisions. Only the two best teams in the conference meet for the title game, which means the winner of this game will take the lead for second place and a spot to potentially win the Big 12.
The Big 12 has put Oklahoma in the College Football Playoff more than once, but I think this year is their best case in vying for one of the coveted four spots. Top to bottom the conference has never been stronger, almost every team has been ranked at some point, and each week brings us another matchup of ranked opponents. Let the good times roll!
Kansas State Wildcats
At this point, it’s unclear whether Adrian Martinez will be able to play. Coach Chris Kleiman reported that he re-aggravated a knee injury and also didn’t practice on Tuesday. If he doesn’t play, they would turn over QB duties to backup Will Howard.
Howard entered the game last Saturday against TCU and threw for 225 yards and a score, while adding 9 rushes for 31 yards and a rushing touchdown. Howard like Martinez, is a dual threat QB. Though all of the advanced analytics are based on Martinez and not Howard, the Wildcats aren’t a highly successful team to begin with (74th).
Deuce Vaughn carries the load in the backfield and posted 83 yards and a score on 6.9 ypc. Kansas State is the nation’s 3rd most explosive run unit, which checks out with his 47 yard long run for the day. Oklahoma State has been unimpressive in limiting run explosiveness (76th), so it’s likely we see that trend continue.
Martinez has only averaged 130 passing yards through 7 games, something Howard easily surpassed once he took over. An improvement through the air would be huge as it would soften the box and open things up even more for Vaughn. While Oklahoma State has done well keeping teams off schedule, they’ve struggled in defending pass explosiveness (89th). Kansas State had plenty of pass explosiveness over a poor TCU unit and they’ll look to keep that formula.
Though they allowed 38 points last week, the Wildcat defense has been pretty solid. Oklahoma State throws nearly 53% of plays which will be an interesting matchup against K-state’s top-35 defensive passing success rate. Provided they can knock the Pokes off schedule, they should see some success — the Cowboys rank 42nd in passing downs success rate, which doesn’t guarantee they’ll convert those 3rd and 8’s.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Spencer Sanders has been incredibly productive this season, though not all sports outlets love the substance to his numbers. The senior has averaged nearly 300 yards passing per game, throwing for 15 touchdowns to 4 interceptions and also adding 352 yards on the ground with 8 more rushing touchdowns. The Heisman is CJ Stroud’s but Sanders is a fun conversation.
The Pokes have averaged almost 40 ppg in conference play, which is nothing to sneeze at. SP+ likes their offense to the tune of 13th best in the country, so they’re legitimate. In fact, their wins are because the offense is outrunning what the defense is surrendering. During that same four game stretch, teams are hanging over 32 ppg on the Cowboys, something we need to keep an eye on.
That Oklahoma State scores as much as they do is surprising, because their advanced metrics wouldn’t indicate a powerhouse. Their overall success rate isn’t spectacular (56th), and there isn’t much explosiveness to discuss, but it’s hard to explain away four games of production for the luck factor.
In their win last week against Texas, Oklahoma State committed 0 penalties, while the Longhorns committed 14 for 119 yards. The Pokes only won that game 41-34 which is a consideration moving forward.
The Cowboys have successfully defended the pass far better than the run, which isn’t the greatest sight against the Wildcats offense that runs 61% of the time. I mentioned above that the Pokes have struggled in defending run explosiveness, which should make Deuce Vaughn ready to roll. They do rank top-40 in stuff rate and line yards though, so this is going to be a fun watch.
NCAA Football Handicapping Trends
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oklahoma State’s last 5 games
- Oklahoma State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
- Kansas State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
- Kansas State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
4* Free Kansas State Wildcats vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys NCAA Betting Final Analysis:
Kansas State has done well as a home favorite this season, going 3-1 ATS, covering by an average of 2.3 points. Most of that is Martinez though, and we just have a lot of unknowns with his health status and the potency of a Will Howard offense.
Oklahoma State has maintained their formula for the entire season, which is score enough points to outrun the opponent in a shootout. That’s a tasty equation for the over.
Excluding Iowa State’s uniquely toothless offense, the Wildcats have allowed 33 points per game to opponents over their last three games. I’ve been on the Big 12 trail of taking overs, and I don’t see this week being much different.
4* Free Kansas State Wildcats vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys NCAA Betting Pick: o56.0
Kansas State Wildcats vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys Free Score Prediction: Wildcats 31 – Cowboys 38 (Bet Now!)If you’re looking for more picks like this Kansas State Wildcats vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys matchup we’ll be providing 4* free College football game predictions on the blog all season long, and check out our Experts for guaranteed premium & free CFB Football picks!
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