Free NCAA Football Prediction: Illinois vs. Michigan State Odds
Looking for Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Michigan State Spartans free picks? College football betting sees the Fighting Illini taking on the Spartans on Saturday, November 5th, 2022, at Memorial Stadium in Champaign, IL. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NCAA football season long so stay tuned for more FREE college football game predictions like this Fighting Illini Spartans free pick.
College Football Handicapping Analysis: Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Michigan State Spartans
Illinois Fighting Illini (7-1) vs. Michigan State Spartans (3-5)
Date: Saturday, November 5th, 2022
Time: 3:30 pm EST
Venue: Memorial Stadium
NCAA Football ATS Spread Odds: Fighting Illini -16 / Spartans +16 (Bet Now!)
NCAA Football Moneyline Odds: Illinois -795 / Michigan State +508
NCAA Betting Total Odds: O/U 41.5
The upstart Fighting Illini look to continue their dominance over the West division and inch closer to an appointment in Indy. Michigan State returns after a dramatic fight that saw four players get suspended.
Illinois is one of the biggest surprises this season, coming out of the gate hot with a 7-1 start through 8 games. Typically their side of the Big Ten has been dominated by Wisconsin but with their regression, the Illini have taken advantage. Provided they keep scorching hot, we’re a mere few weeks away from Illinois clinching a conference title berth.
Michigan State is unfortunately moving in the opposite direction. After their impressive 2021 that prompted a $95 million dollar extension for Mel Tucker, they’ve done nothing but go backwards. Losing talent to the NFL is always difficult, but Kenneth Walker alone probably wasn’t worth 3 wins. To add insult to injury, the program took a black eye after they got into an altercation at Michigan. So from what has been ugly has gotten even worse.
Illinois Fighting Illini
Any conversation about the Illini offense has to begin with RB Chase Brown. The sixth year junior (!) from Canada is a candidate for the Doak Walker award, posting 1,208 yards and 5 touchdowns through 8 games. He’s relied upon by an offense that runs 58% of the time and still averages over 5 yards per carry.
Tommy DeVito leads the huddle after transferring in from Syracuse. I wasn’t a fan of his, and while his yardage won’t blow anyone away, he’s been efficient, posting 12 touchdowns to just 2 interceptions and keeping them at an average success rate through the air.
The real story with Illinois this year is the defense. In their 6 game winning streak, the defense has held opponents to an average of 7 ppg. The Illini are #1 in the country in defensive success rate, knocking teams off schedule and forcing punts. They’re also top-10 in line yards, stuff rate and havoc. The Spartans just won’t be able to run in this one.
Michigan State profiles as a pass heavy team and Illinois is just as dominant in air traffic control. They’re 4th in defensive passing success rate and are #1 in havoc generated by the secondary. This should be an absolutely dominating performance.
Michigan State Spartans
Michigan State has their work cut out for them, but let’s see how they’ve been doing this year. They throw a lot but they’re just 68th in offensive passing success rate, led by junior Payton Thorne. They don’t show much in the explosiveness department either and deeply miss Jalen Nailor.
The Spartans are only averaging just over 16 ppg in conference play and are coming off a 29-7 loss to Michigan. They averaged just 1.6 yards per rush! Now they face the vaunted Illini rush defense, so I don’t foresee it getting much better. The Spartans are 112th in offensive line yards and 102nd in stuff rate allowed.
Defensively, the Spartans just lost four members for their role in the brawl Saturday. How do they respond in light of that? It’s a heavy blow to a team that’s 3-5 and allowing nearly 28 points per game. Michigan State is just average in defensive rushing success rate and rush explosiveness allowed and that spells a tough day against Chase Brown.
NCAA Football Handicapping Trends
- Michigan State is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Illinois
- Michigan State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Illinois
- Illinois is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
- Illinois is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
4* Free Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Michigan State Spartans NCAA Betting Final Analysis:
Oof, it looks rough for Sparty in this one. Illinois profiles to dominate for four quarters and I follow the data. The only question I have is which is better for us, the number or the total?
On one hand, the total is really low and defensive touchdowns are high variance outcomes that can trash a bet. On the other hand, 16 points is a lot to ask of Illinois, considering their pace is slow and backdoor opportunities lurk.
Weather.com though shows me they’re expecting rain and high winds, up to 26 mph. That spells a beautiful under bet. I’m placing this bet right now, and you should too.
What are you still doing here? Go bet this under!
4* Free Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Michigan State Spartans NCAA Betting Pick: u41.5
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Michigan State Spartans Free Score Prediction: Fighting Illini 13 – Spartans 0 (Bet Now!)If you’re looking for more picks like this Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Michigan State Spartans matchup we’ll be providing 4* free College football game predictions on the blog all season long, and check out our Experts for guaranteed premium & free CFB Football picks!
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