Free NCAA Football Prediction: Eastern Michigan vs. Toledo Odds
Looking for Eastern Michigan Eagles vs. Toledo Rockets free picks? College football betting sees the Eagles taking on the Rockets on Saturday, October 29th, 2022, at Rynearson Stadium in Ypsilanti, MI. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NCAA football season long so stay tuned for more FREE college football game predictions like this Eagles Rockets free pick.
College Football Handicapping Analysis: Eastern Michigan Eagles vs. Toledo Rockets
Eastern Michigan Eagles (5-3) vs. Toledo Rockets (5-3)
Date: Saturday, October 29th, 2022
Time: 12:00 pm EST
Venue: Rynearson Stadium
NCAA Football ATS Spread Odds: Eagles +7 / Rockets -7 (Bet Now!)
NCAA Football Moneyline Odds: Eastern Michigan +220 / Toledo -280
NCAA Betting Total Odds: O/U 55.5
The MAC sees their last weekend before starting weeknight games, meaning we all win. Conference favorite Toledo takes on an up-and-coming Eastern Michigan squad.
Eastern Michigan has had a mixed bag offensively this season, but sit just behind Toledo in the MAC West standings. It’s a nice recovery after losing QB Ben Bryant as he transferred back to Cincinnati to take over for the departed Desmond Ridder. If the Eagles hope to make it to Ford Field for the conference title game, they have to have this game against UT.
Toledo has kept their word after being preseason favorites to take the conference. They sit atop the MAC West, just above Eastern Michigan, so this game is important but can always recover if they somehow lose. Jason Candle has only won the conference once since he arrived, but consistently has the Rockets in the conversation.
The first article I posted this year was Toledo against Long Island, so this is coming full circle! With that, let’s dive in and try to stratify these teams in what feels like a homogenous mixture of a conference.
Eastern Michigan Eagles
The Eagles are coming off a 20-16 win over Ball State in Muncie. Austin Smith was held scoreless through the air, but added 52 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries. The leading receiving threat, Hassan Beydoun caught 10 passes for 85 yards. EMU is typically a balanced offense, but grinded out a win, rushing 46 times.
They surprise, posting a top-35 offensive success rate but only rank 72nd in touchdowns per game. So while the offense has picked up first downs and moved the chains, they’re failing to convert and settling for field goals. To feel the most comfortable, we want to see the underdog finishing drives.
The Eagles have been far more successful running the ball, which bore out in the box score versus Ball State. Toledo is 19th in defensive rushing success rate, so EMU will have their work cut out for them.
Beydoun is the main player Toledo must key in the passing game. Though they haven’t done well in defensive passing success rate, the Rockets secondary generates a top-20 havoc number, suggesting they’ve done well defending passes.
SP+ really dislikes the EMU defense, ranking them 116/131. The Eagles allow 4 trips to the redzone per game on average, and are 86th in opponent touchdowns per game, so the numbers paint a stark picture here — they’re not very good. They also generate no havoc (99th) and fall dead last in stuff rate, so we shouldn’t expect many negative plays for Toledo.
Toledo Rockets
Toledo is coming off a loss to Buffalo, who hasn’t lost a conference game all year and are leaders in the MAC East. Prior to that, the Rockets held a three game winning streak where they beat opponents by an average of nearly 21 ppg.
Dequan Finn leads the Toledo attack that has averaged 37 points per game. Toledo has continued to be a run-heavy team after losing Bryant Koback to the NFL. They haven’t been a highly efficient running team but they do have some rushing explosiveness in their profile (29th). As a matter of fact, Toledo has been a pretty explosive team all season, which will be an interesting matchup against an EMU defense that is 5th in limiting explosiveness!
After throwing 4 interceptions against Buffalo last week, Finn will welcome an EMU team that ranks 114th in the country in takeaways per game. Provided Toledo can take care of the ball, and it seems like they should, EMU’s numbers suggest Toledo should find themselves in scoring position often.
The question then becomes, can Toledo’s defense get some stops? We already mentioned that EMU is successful running the ball, but the Rockets have been dominant up front. Their vulnerability comes through the air, though the Eagles don’t have a passing success rate that presents an issue.
In games where the Rocket’s didn’t hand over the ball 4 times, they’ve allowed nearly 30 points per game. So while the numbers aren’t fantastic, their W-L record has been the byproduct of an offense that can score enough to cover up their defensive inefficiencies.
NCAA Football Handicapping Trends
- Toledo is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games when playing Eastern Michigan
- Toledo is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Eastern Michigan
- The total has gone OVER in 11 of Eastern Michigan’s last 15 games when playing Toledo
- Eastern Michigan is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
4* Free Eastern Michigan Eagles vs. Toledo Rockets NCAA Betting Final Analysis:
I like the way this game profiles for the Rockets. They should be able to score against a generous EMU defense, and the Eagles don’t pose too much of a threat offensively. If anything, the number seems like it should be higher to me, which usually tingles my Spidey sense.
I’m rolling with Toledo here, hoping they don’t repeat their turnover performance against Buffalo. The Buffs are a quality team, so it’s not too alarming that Toledo struggled in that game. I expect a bounce back performance by the Rockets against a lower quality EMU team that has had mixed results all season.
4* Free Eastern Michigan Eagles vs. Toledo Rockets NCAA Betting Pick: Toledo -7
Eastern Michigan Eagles vs. Toledo Rockets Free Score Prediction: Eagles 21 – Rockets 38 (Bet Now!)If you’re looking for more picks like this Eastern Michigan Eagles vs. Toledo Rockets matchup we’ll be providing 4* free College football game predictions on the blog all season long, and check out our Experts for guaranteed premium & free CFB Football picks!
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