Free Week 5 Prediction: Pirates vs Mustangs Odds
Week 5 College football betting sees the East Carolina Pirates taking on the SMU Mustangs Saturday, October 3rd at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas, Texas. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NCAA football season long so stay tuned for more FREE college football predictions.
East Carolina Pirates (2-2) vs. SMU Mustangs (1-3)
Date: Saturday, October 3rd, 2015
Time: 4:00 PM ET
Venue: Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, Texas
NCAA Football Spread: ECU -5.5
NCAA Betting Total: 67
Updated Sportsbook Bonuses For Today
East Carolina is going through a transition period where they lost a lot players, but they have done a solid enough job. Junior quarterback Blake Kemp has had some big shoes to fill with Shane Carden leaving, but he has done a solid job.
Kemp has thrown three interceptions, but he has completed 70% of his passes and has thrown seven touchdown passes.
Kemp should have a big day as SMU’s defense is really bad, we’ll talk more about that later. Kemp should be able to find junior wide receiver Isaiah Jones as he has been the primary target this year.
Jones has 32 receptions this year and 397 yards to lead the team. Jones has also come up big in the big games. Jones caught 14 passes for 135 yards and a touchdown versus Florida.
Senior halfback Chris Hairston hasn’t replicated the success he had week 1 versus Towson where he carried the ball 18 times for 154 yards and 4 touchdowns. East Carolina had three tough matchups in a row versus Florida, Navy, and Virginia Tech. Look for Hairston to find the end zone a couple of times versus SMU.
Defensively, East Carolina has been pretty shaky and they’ll have their hands full versus a very explosive SMU offense. ECU is giving up 31 points per game, they rank 116th in the nation in rushing yards, and they have given up 421 total yards.
SMU has a poor 1-3 record, but don’t let that fool you; the Mustangs aren’t that bad. SMU is vastly improved over last year. You could forgive them for losing to playoff contenders TCU and Baylor.
SMU is heading in the right direction with the help of first year coach Chad Morris and freshman quarterback Matt Davis and freshman wide receiver Courtland Sutton leading the way.
SMU has a very explosive offense that has put up a ton of points this year. SMU put up 37 points on TCU and 45 last week against James Madison. The problem is their defense.
SMU ranks pretty much last in all significant categories. They rank 128th in total yards, 122nd in passing yards, 125th in rushing yards, and they allow over 40 points per game.
Again, this numbers are a tad bit bloated considering they played Baylor and TCU, but James Madison was able to put up 48 on them. That is unacceptable and very concerning if you are a Mustangs fan.
NCAA Football Handicapping Trends
- ECU is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 conference games
- SMU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
- ECU is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games
- ECU is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games
- SMU Over is 8-1 in last 9 October games
Free Week 5 NCAA Football Prediction
I like SMU and they probably will cover, however, their defense is a huge red flag. With that, I’m pivoting off SMU at +5.5 and just going with the safer pick in taking the over. Both offenses should put up video game numbers as I think the over should be closer to 80 instead of 67, that seems pretty low.
4* Free NCAA Betting Pick: Over 67
Week 5 Free Score Prediction: East Carolina 42 – SMU 45
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