Free NCAAF Pick: Buffaloes vs. Bears Odds
Looking for Colorado Buffaloes vs. Baylor Bears Free NCAA picks & NCAA odds? NCAAF betting sees the Buffaloes taking on the Bears on 9/26 at McLane Stadium, in Waco, TX. This free NCAA football pick is based on matchup analysis and documented handicapping data tracked by CappersPicks since 2004, with a focus on identifying the strongest betting angle for this Buffaloes Bears matchup.
2026 NCAAF Handicapping – Colorado Buffaloes vs Baylor Bears
(2-1) Colorado Buffaloes vs. Baylor Bears (2-1)
Date: Sep 26, 2026
Time: 12:00 PM ET
Venue: McLane Stadium in Waco, TX
NCAAF Moneyline Odds: Buffaloes +298 | Bears -398 (Bet Now!)
Today’s NCAAF Spread Betting Odds: Buffaloes +10 | Bears -10
NCAAF Football Gambling Total: O/U: 55.5
Here’s why I’m backing an UNDER bet below in my Buffaloes Bears free pick & gambling prediction for this matchup.
Buffaloes vs. Bears Gameday
Colorado heads to Waco for its Big 12 opener against Baylor on Saturday, September 26. Kickoff from McLane Stadium is set for 12:00 PM ET on ESPN2.
The Buffaloes enter at 2-1 after getting flattened 41-7 at Northwestern. Colorado opened with a 14-13 road win over Georgia Tech before beating Weber State 52-21 at home.
Colorado’s first two road trips produced completely different teams, which makes Waco an interesting third act.
Baylor is also 2-1 and has won two straight since a 17-16 loss to Auburn in Atlanta. The Bears handled Prairie View A&M 44-3 before beating Louisiana Tech 36-19 last Saturday.
Colorado won the most recent meeting 38-31 in overtime in 2024, a game that needed a last-second Hail Mary just to reach overtime. The Buffaloes lead the all-time series 10-7.
Both teams are unranked and open Big 12 play Saturday.
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Colorado got a rather unpleasant reminder at Northwestern that road football can turn sideways quickly. Waco now offers the Buffaloes a chance to show that seven-point afternoon was the exception.
Colorado Buffaloes vs. Baylor Bears Odds & Last 5
Baylor is a 10-point home favorite, with the Bears around -380 on the moneyline and Colorado roughly +300. The total is 55.5 after opening closer to 53.5.
Colorado’s 41-7 loss at Northwestern was its first defeat of the season. Julian Lewis threw for 168 yards, and four Buffaloes turnovers helped turn a manageable road test into a long afternoon. The Buffaloes had scored 66 points across wins over Georgia Tech and Weber State before managing seven last week.
Baylor has won both games at McLane Stadium.
Nate Bennett accounted for four touchdowns in the 36-19 win over Louisiana Tech, while the Bears finished with 418 total yards. The Bears are 2-1 against the spread this season, while Colorado is 1-2. Baylor’s first two games stayed under the total before the Louisiana Tech game went over.
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Bears Stats
Baylor has scored 96 points through three games, with 80 of those coming during its current two-game winning streak. Nate Bennett has done more than babysit the offense while DJ Lagway has been sidelined. Bennett has thrown for 567 yards and six touchdowns over the last two games, including 253 yards and three scores against Louisiana Tech.
Dawson Pendergrass leads the Bears with 203 rushing yards. Baylor ran for 165 yards last Saturday, while Bennett also added a 25-yard touchdown on the ground.
The Bears have allowed 39 points this season.
Their best defensive performance came against Prairie View A&M, which managed only 110 total yards in a 44-3 Baylor win. Baylor could also be getting healthier at the right time. Lagway, receiver Jadon Porter, safety Devin Turner and offensive tackle Logan Moore were all expected to return this week, although Lagway’s status remains the biggest one to watch.
Buffaloes Stats
Colorado has scored 73 points through three games, but the offense has taken a strange route getting there. The Buffaloes went from 52 points and 579 yards against Weber State to seven points at Northwestern.
Julian Lewis has thrown for 658 yards with six touchdowns and two interceptions.
Both of those interceptions came last Saturday, when Northwestern kept Colorado out of the end zone until the fourth quarter. Colorado has still run for at least 180 yards in each of its first three games. Micah Welch leads the Buffaloes with 178 rushing yards, while Joseph Williams has a team-high 234 receiving yards.
The Buffaloes can run it, but four turnovers at Northwestern made that strength mostly academic by halftime.
Colorado has allowed 75 points overall, including 62 in its last two games. The defense was much better in the 14-13 opener at Georgia Tech, so consistency remains the bigger issue than raw ability.
Buffaloes vs. Bears QB Matchup
Baylor’s quarterback situation changed after DJ Lagway injured his ankle in the opener against Auburn. Nate Bennett started the next two games and responded with 567 passing yards and six touchdowns.
Bennett was especially sharp against Louisiana Tech, completing 21 of 24 passes for 253 yards and three scores. Baylor has won both of his starts.
Lagway is expected to return against Colorado after sitting out the last two games. Baylor coach Dave Aranda said Monday that the quarterback was feeling much better, but his workload is still worth watching after the layoff.
Julian Lewis remains Colorado’s starter and has thrown for 658 yards with six touchdowns and two interceptions through three games.
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Lewis had his roughest afternoon of the season at Northwestern, finishing with 168 passing yards and two interceptions.
Colorado needs the version that threw four touchdowns against Weber State, not another afternoon spent chasing the game after early mistakes.
Colorado Buffaloes vs. Baylor Bears bottom line: Baylor suddenly has two quarterbacks it can trust, while Colorado arrives in Waco needing to prove that the Northwestern disaster was one ugly Saturday rather than the start of a road problem.
Colorado Buffaloes vs. Baylor Bears Football Betting Trends
- Colorado has gone 13-8 against the spread after a loss in their last 21 games.
- Also, the Buffaloes have a 2-1 record against the spread in their last 3 away games.
- Colorado’s over/under record as an underdog in their last 30 games is 15-14-1.
- Baylor has a perfect 4-0 over/under record after a win in their last 4 games.
- The Bears have a solid 10-2 straight-up record as favorites in their last 12 games.
- Additionally, Baylor’s over/under record in home games stands at 7-5-1 in their last 13 games.
Buffaloes Bears Free Pick: Under 55.5
Here is my Buffaloes Bears free pick: I’m playing Under 55.5. Colorado’s offense has been wildly uneven through three games, and asking the Buffaloes to suddenly carry their share of a mid-50s total after scoring seven at Northwestern feels ambitious.
Baylor has allowed only 39 points this season, although Prairie View A&M helped make that number prettier. The Bears still held Auburn to 17 and have enough pressure up front to make Julian Lewis work for clean possessions.
Colorado has scored 21 points in its two road games, and that matters more to me than the season average.
The interesting part is the number itself. This total opened around 53.5 and has climbed to 55.5, so we’re getting a couple of extra points before stepping in on the under.
DJ Lagway is expected back for Baylor, which adds some risk, but the Bears don’t need to turn this into a shootout if they control the game at home. Colorado should be happier shortening possessions than trading touchdowns after what happened in Evanston.
I’ll take the inflated number and make Under 55.5 my Buffaloes Bears free pick.
Today’s NCAAF Free Pick
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Baylor Bears on X
New week. Same Energy.
See you Saturday >> https://t.co/8eQ97g6mnj pic.twitter.com/bmFqnzRo6G— Baylor Football (@BUFootball) September 22, 2026
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