Free Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl Prediction: Red Wolves vs Wolfpack Odds
Looking for Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Nevada Wolfpack free picks? Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl sees the Red Wolves taking on the Wolfpack Tuesday January 1st at Arizona Stadium in Tuscon, AZ. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NCAA football season long so stay tuned for more FREE college football predictions like this Arkansas State Nevada Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl free pick.
College Football Handicapping: Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl
(8-4) Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Nevada Wolfpack (7-5)
Date: Saturday, December 29th 2018
Time: 1:15 pm EST
Venue: Arizona Stadium, Tuscon, AZ
NCAA Football Spread: Arkansas State -1.5
NCAA Betting Total: 60.5
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Oddsmakers are expecting a lot of points in a close game between Arkansas State and Nevada in the Arizona Bowl. It’s understandable – both teams have a top 25 passing attack to go with running games that also put up 150+ ypg. This game is a matchup of teams with solid momentum as Ark St. has won four straight and Nevada 4 of their last 5.
Both teams have pretty significant travel distances to get to Tuscon. Arkansas State has played a road game at Alabama this year while Nevada has the experience of a long trek to Hawaii. This game really is pretty even keeled no matter which way you look at it.
Arkansas State Red Wolves
The Red Wolves know where they stand vs. elite competition, losing 7 to 57 to the Crimson Tide earlier in the year and failing to cover the +36.5 spread. Alabama racked up 268 yards on the ground in that game but the Red Wolves were impressive vs. the #1 defense in the country running 31 times for 173 yards. Although they were favored in every game the last month of the season, Arkansas State still took care of business going 4-0 ATS.
So what are the Wolves going to rely on vs. the Nevada defense? QB Justise Hanson is definitely clicking right now with 12 TD to 0 INT the last four games. Hanson has thrown for 240+ in six straight and Arkansas State has scored 30+ in each game over that span. The Wolves also boast a great rushing game too though with both Warren Wand and Marcel Murray averaging over 5.3 ypc with 650+ yards on the ground.
For as good as the Ark St. offense has been lately it’s their defense that is going to give them a true shot in this game. That’s because the Wolves have held four straight opponents to under 17 points scoring. Nevada presents a whole new offensive threat but it’s nice to have that momentum either way.
The Wolfpack also come into the bowl game on a hot streak having won 4 of their last 5. That includes a 28-24 win over San Diego St. as a PK and a 40-22 win at Hawaii as +3 ‘dogs. It will be very interesting however to see howevada bounces back from a 29-34 loss to UNLV to close out the year as -14 favorites. Nevada allowed 226 yards rushing in that game which isn’t positive vs. Arkansas State.
Of course the Wolfpack can survive a shootout in the Arizona Bowl if they have to. That’s because QB Ty Gangi powers the nation’s 20th ranked passing attack. Gangi has a 314 and 404 yard passing day over the last 3 weeks of the regular season. He did toss 3 picks vs. the Running Rebels however. The Nevada running game is also fairly solid although Toa Tua had just 30 yards on 11 carries in the finale.
Nevada’s strength on defense is definitely vs. the run where they rank 34th in the country with 135.2 yards given up per game. They’ve held Colorado State to 74 rushing yards and San Jose State just 30 over the past month of the season but you have to think Arkansas State favors a bit better than that on December 29th.
NCAA Football Handicapping Trends
- Red Wolves are 4-0 ATS their last four games
- Red Wolves are 2-6 ATS last 8 vs. a team with a winning record
- Wolfpack are 1-6 ATS their last 7 non-conference games
Free Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl NCAA Football Pick
Both of these teams are kind of an enigma based on their schedules this season. Each team finished the season strong with the exception of Nevada’s loss to UNLV in the finale. Arkansas State has been favored in six straight games with five of those being by nearly a TD or more. How do the Red Wolves respond vs. a quality opponent.
4* Free NCAA Betting Pick: Arkansas State
This is one of those coin flip bowl games. It seems like oddsmakers want bettors to take Arkansas State in this one and we’ll fall into that trap based solely on how well the Red Wolves Hanson has played down the stretch. Nevada hasn’t exactly played great competition lately either (two TD favorites in three straight) so Arkansas State is ready to pounce.
Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl Free Score Prediction: Arkansas State 38 – Nevada 35
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