Free NCAA Pick: Alabama vs. Mississippi State Odds
Looking for Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs free NCAA Week 5 picks & NCAA odds? NCAA betting sees the Crimson Tide taking on the Bulldogs on Saturday, September 30th at the Davis Wade Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NCAA handicapping picks all season long including all NCAA Week 5 games so stay tuned for more FREE NCAA predictions like this Alabama Mississippi State matchup.
2023 NCAAF Handicapping Analysis: Week 5
(3-1) Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-2)
Date: Saturday, September 30th
Time: 9:00 ET
Venue: Davis Wade Stadium
NCAA Week 5 ATS Betting Lines: (BET NOW!) Alabama -14.5 | Mississippi State +14.5
Week 5 CFB Moneyline Odds: Alabama -778 | Mississippi State +522
College Football Betting Total: O/U 46.5
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Alabama will look to carry over the momentum from last year’s 30-6 win over Mississippi State. In the win, Alabama ran for 29 yards and threw for 261. On 3rd down, the Crimson Tide went 8/17.
On the other side, Mississippi State completed 30 of their 61 passes for 231 yards and ran for 62 yards.
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Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama most recently took down Ole Miss by a score of 24-10. The Crimson Tide went into the 4th quarter of this game leading by 11.
So far, the Crimson Tide are a perfect 4-0 vs. the spread with an average scoring differential of +16.8. When looking at their previous betting lines, they have been the underdog in all of their games.
So far in this season, Alabama has posted an over/under record of 2-2. On average, their matchups have yielded a combined score of 43.8 points, with the typical over/under line set at 55.6 points.
Alabama Crimson Tide Stats
The Crimson Tide come into their matchup vs. Mississippi State 22nd in college football at 162 rushing attempts per game. This has translated to an average of 161.5 rushing yards per game, placing them 61st nationally.
Additionally, they’ve been airing it out 23.8 times each game, accumulating an average of 203.2 passing yards. In terms of scoring, they stand 44th, with 30.2 points per game.
The Alabama defense, going into this week’s game, holds 28th place for points allowed, allowing 13.5 points per game. Opponents have been gaining an average of 203.5 passing yards each game against them (62nd in the country).
On the ground, they’re yielding 104 rushing yards, ranking them 36th in college football.
The Crimson Tide’s finished with 21 pass attempts vs. Ole Miss, accumulating 225 yards and one score. In the rushing game, they averaged 2.9 yards per carry and notched one rushing touchdown.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Even with a 27-20 lead going into the fourth quarter, Mississippi State lost their most recent game against South Carolina by a score of 37-30.
The Bulldogs have still not covered the spread this season at 0-2. So far, they have been the favorite in each of their first four games.
This season, Mississippi State has an over/under record of 2-0.
Their games have, on average, produced a combined total of 58 points, with the typical over/under line being 53.7 points.
Mississippi State Bulldogs Stats
The Bulldogs’ offense is gearing up to take on Alabama, with an average of 142.2 rushing yards per game and an 4 yards per attempt.
In the college football rankings, they are currently in 75th place for rushing yards and 75th place for passing yards, accumulating an average of 245.8 yards per contest. Mississippi State’s overall scoring average is at 30.8 points per game, placing them 42nd rank nationally.
The Bulldogs’ passing game featured 48 pass attempts for 487 yards and one score vs. South Carolina. In the rushing department, they averaged 1.4 yards per carry and notched two rushing touchdowns.
Mississippi State comes into the game 75th in points allowed, allowing 27.2 points per game.
Teams have been gaining 280 passing yards on average against them (152nd). Against the run, they’re giving up 120.2 yards, placing them 57th in college football.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs NCAA Football Betting Trends
- The Crimson Tide are 3-2 in their last five games as a favorite.
- Conversely, the Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
- Also, the Crimson Tide are 3-7 ATS in their last ten road games.
- On the other side, the Bulldogs have gone 5-5 across their last ten home games.
- Over the Crimson Tide’s last 3 road games, the over/under record is 1-2.
- The Bulldogs’ have an over/under record of 1-2 in their last 3 games at home.
Alabama vs. Mississippi State Line Movement
| Open-ML | Live-ML | Open-Spread | Live-Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crimson Tide | -910 | -778 | -15 | -14.5 |
| Bulldogs | +550 | +522 | +15 | +14.5 |
4* Free Week 5 NCAA Betting Prediction: Mississippi State +14.5
Will Rogers is set to grace the field this Saturday, shouldering the responsibility of maintaining a competitive edge in this game and assisting Bulldog ATS bettors in securing some profits. I firmly believe in his ability to fulfill this role.
Rogers possesses the capability to effectively distribute the ball to his weapons while also maintaining ball security. With 979 passing yards under his belt, he currently leads State with an impressive 244 yards per game.
Also, he boasts a commendable 60.7% completion rate, having thrown 6 TD passes and just 1 INT this year.
Compared to Jalen Milroe who is getting pressured a ton and is mistake prone I like Rogers in this matchup.
Alabama has struggled with turnovers in their passing game lately. As the home underdogs, I’m leaning towards Mississippi State to cover the spread at +14.5.
My model has this one at 50 points total, so play the OVER 46.5. The total has gone OVER in 4 of Alabama’s last 6 games, and the total has gone OVER in 8 of the Bulldog’s L10 games at home.
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Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs NCAA Betting Tweet Of The Day
Love this Bulldogs hype vid.
https://twitter.com/HailState/status/1707191387773382686
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