Falcons vs. Vikings Preview + Free Pick
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Posted on 9/8/2007 6:31:29 PM
Week 1 NFL Picks – Atlanta Falcons (0-0) at Minnesota Vikings (0-0)
With the indefinite suspension of former starting quarterback Michael Vick, the Atlanta Falcons are depending on career underachiever Joey Harrington to be their starting quarterback while the Minnesota Vikings are turning to athletic, but inexperienced youngster, Tavaris Jackson to turn their fortunes around.
Here is a look at tonight’s Key Trends followed by my Free Football Betting Picks:
Key Falcons Trends
The Falcons are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games in Week 1.
The Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog.
The Falcons are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.
Key Vikings Trends
The Vikings are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
The Vikings are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in September.
The Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 1.
Key Totals Trends
The Under is 8-1 in Falcons last 9 games overall.
The Under is 6-1 in Falcons last 7 games in September.
The Under is 4-1-1 in Vikings last 6 games in September.
The Over is 4-1 in Vikings last 5 vs. NFC.
Key Head-to-Head Trends
The Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings posted a 6-10 record last year in head coach Brad Childress’ first season but faded quickly after an impressive start.
Minnesota has added gifted running back Adrian Peterson to the mix through the draft and has two speedy wide receivers in Troy Williamson and Sidney Rice. The Vikings do have some legitimate problems along the defensive line and the secondary is mediocre at best. The Vikings recorded middle-of the-road numbers in both wagering categories last season (7-9 ATS, 7-7-2 O/U).
Atlanta Falcons: The Atlanta Falcons have likely seen the last of quarterback Michael Vick and will start former No. 3 overall pick Joey Harrington at quarterback despite the fact that Harrington has been mediocre at best throughout his NFL career.
Atlanta will still be able to count on veteran Warrick Dunn at running back but has big questions at wide receiver where their best receiver may now be 35-year-old veteran Joe Horn. The Falcons are hoping that Laurent Robinson, Frank Gibson, Adam Jennings, or Roddy White can elevate their games.
Atlanta also has several question marks throughout their starting defensive unit that need to be answered. Despite going an unimpressive 7-9 in the regular, the Falcons posted a solid 8-8 ATS record but one of the worst O/U records in the league (4-11-1 O/U).
NFL Betting Analysis: Neither team has played particularly well in the preseason but in the end, I say take the Vikings to win this matchup with the home fans spurring them on over a similarly mediocre Atlanta Falcons team.
NFL Free Picks: Vikings 27 Falcons 21
01:00 PM EST
Atlanta Falcons +3 EV
Minnesota Vikings -3 -120
Under 35½ -110
Over 35½ -110
NFL Week 1
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