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Posted on 12/14/2007 4:05 PM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping Staff
Football Betting Action – Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Bucs
It seems as if the Atlanta Falcons (3-9 SU, 6-6 ATS) have been to hell and back this season. They will forge ahead, without coach Bobby Petrino, as they travel to Raymond James Stadium in Tampa (grass) to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-5 SU, 7-5-1 ATS) in a game that kicks off at 1 PM EST on Sunday.
In the Top Sportsbooks NFL football odds, the Bucs are a 14.5-point favorite, with the total posted at 39 points.
Here are some of the NFL football betting trends and stats relative to this matchup:
* ATL has covered just one of its last five games
* ATL has won three of its last 16 games SU
* ATL has played 15 UNDERS in its last 22 games
* ATL has won one of its last seven road games SU
* ATL has played ten UNDERS in its last 11 road games
* TB has covered four of its last five games
* TB has covered five of its last six home games
* TB has played four of its last five home games UNDER the total
* TB has won 10 of the last 14 meetings SU
* TB has won four of the last six meetings at home SU
* Thirteen of the last 19 meetings have gone OVER the total
Jeff Garcia comes back to the Tampa Bay Bucs lineup (back bruise) after Luke McCown went 1-1 as the starter at QB. The Bucs, who lost their top two running backs earlier in the schedule, have quietly come to within one game of winning the NFC South title and a berth in the playoffs. Ernest Graham looks like he may have a chance at 1000 yards rushing. Ike Hilliard (58 catches) and Joey Galloway (55) have been steady threats for Garcia, who has thrown only three interceptions on the season. The Tampa Bay defense has been solid all year long (allowing 289 ypg). And opponents have scored only 12.1 ppg in Raymond James Stadium. the Buccaneers have won four of their last five, including a 31-7 win over Atlanta a month ago, in which the Falcons had only 49 rushing yards and committed four turnovers.
This game is intriguing for us because it presents a dynamic that is highly unusual. If you listen to the comments from most of the Atlanta players after the unceremonious, middle-of-the-night departure of Bobby Petrino, it appears they didn’t respect the guy very much to begin with, and are probably relieved and happy that he is gone. In other words, this may be the one thing that unites the team unlike anything else.
I would expect that there is a more relaxed atmosphere now, and that Jerious Norwood (6.2 ypc, 25 catches), for whatever reason the most under-used weapon in the NFL, will get some extra playing time. Since the Falcons have found a go-to receiver in Roddy White (995 yards) and a quarterback who might be able to take them the rest of the way (Chris Redman, who threw for 298 yards and two TD’s last Monday), they have the makings of an attack. And Emmitt Thomas, who has been waiting more than a decade for his big chance, will not lack focus as the “interim” coach, that’s for sure.
Oddsmakers have jacked up the number here, anticipating excessive confusion in the Falcon camp. The effect may be just the opposite; if Petrino’s presence was a negative, his absence becomes a positive. We’ll take the points with Atlanta, the 14.5-point underdog in the Top Sportsbooks NFL football betting odds.
NFL football betting odds: TAMPA BAY -14.5, Total: 39
NOTABLE STAT: Jeff Garcia has thrown just three interceptions in 282 attempts
KEY NFL FOOTBALL BETTING TREND: Atlanta has played ten “unders” in its last 11 road games
NFL Free Pick: JAY’S PLAY: ATLANTA
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