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NFL Wagering – Miami Dolphins (0-12) at Bills (6-6)
The Miami Dolphins, (SU, 3-6-3 ATS, 1-4-1 O/U) are an absolute mess right now and one that won’t be straightened out until the Dolphins part ways with either head coach Cam Cameron or general manager Randy Mueller, who combined before the start of this season, to effectively trash any chances the Dolphins had of being competitive with their inept personnel moves.
The Buffalo Bills, (7-4-1 ATS, 5-7 O/U), reached the .500 mark last week after beating the Washington Redskins 17-16 as kicker Rian Lindell booted a 36-yard field goal with just four seconds remaining.
The Bills are actually ranked lower than the Dolphins in overall offense, (29 to 31), but it is the Dolphins that enter this game coming off their largest defeat of the season, a 40-13 drubbing by the nearly equally atrocious New York Jets.
Here is a look at tonight’s Key Trends, followed by my NFL Betting Free Picks:
Key Dolphins Trends
The Dolphins are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games following a double-digit loss at home.
The Dolphins are 4-1-2 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
The Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last five games in Week 14.
Key Bills Trends
The Bills are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games following a ATS win.
The Bills are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games on turf.
The Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.
Key Totals Trends
The Under is 4-0 in Dolphins last four games as an underdog.
The Under is 6-0 in Dolphins last six games in Week 14.
The Under is 5-1 in Bills last six games as a favorite.
The Under is 5-1 in Bills last six vs. a team with a losing record.
Key Head-to-Head Trends
The Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
The Dolphins are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in Buffalo.
The Dolphins are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
Analysis: While most NFL observers were thinking the Dolphins’ best, (only?) chance to pick up a victory this season would be in last week’s matchup against the Jets, I have been pointing to this game for several weeks as the lone game that the Dolphins would win this season – and I’m sticking with that prediction. For better or worse, I’m taking the Dolphins to win this matchup, (or cover at the very least). In closing, I must admit, I am totally sick of hearing Cameron’s ‘everything’s fine, we just have to stick together’ speech.
NFL Free Picks: Dolphins +7 Points/Over 36.5 Total Points
01:00 PM EST Football Odds
Miami Dolphins +7 EV
Buffalo Bills -7 -120
Over 36½ -110
Under 36½ -110
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