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Posted on 12/04/2007 8:39:45 AM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping Staff
NFL Football Betting – Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions
The Dallas Cowboys (11-1 SU, 9-3 ATS), fresh off the home win over Green Bay that gave them the inside track on home field advantage in the NFC playoffs, visit the Motor City on Sunday to face off against a sliding Detroit Lions team (6-6 SU, 5-6-1 ATS) in a game scheduled for a 1 PM EST start at Ford Field (artificial turf). In the Top Sportsbooks NFL football betting odds, Dallas is listed as an 11-point favorite, with the over/under posted at 52 points.
Can these teams combine to put up that many points? We’ll explore that.
First, let’s take a look at the TOTALS-RELATED pro football stats and betting trends concerning this matchup:
* DALLAS averages 32.9 ppg (2nd in NFL)
* DALLAS has played four of its last five games OVER the total
* DALLAS has played 12 of its last 16 games OVER the total
* DALLAS has played its last six road games OVER the total
* DETROIT has played four of its last five games OVER the total
* DETROIT has played five of its last eight home games OVER the total
* Three of the last four meetings have gone OVER the total
Since they played in a Thursday night game, Dallas should be well-rested and ready to go. And that means ready to score points.
If not for the year Tom Brady’s having, Tony Romo would be a very viable MVP candidate. Romo has tallied 33 TD passes and averaged 8.8 yards an attempt, which is phenomenal. and he has done it without the services of Terry Glenn, who’s been out with an injury. Thankfully for them, Patrick Crayton has slipped very nicely into that second WR slot (524 yards, 7 TD’s), next to Terrell Owens, who can be penciled onto the All-Pro team (1249 yards, 14 TD’s). And then there’s Jason Witten, as good a tight end as there is in the league.
Roy Williams has been lost to the Lions for the season. That’s a big blow, but Mike Martz, the architect of this offense, has other guys who can make plays. And Jon Kitna is a good “stat” player. Kitna is not necessarily so much more productive at home, but he seems to be better protected (18 sacks, as opposed to 29 on the road) and he has a 7-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio at Ford Field. And he will throw it until his arm falls off. The running game gets lip service, but not much action from Martz; the Lions had 23 rushing yards on Sunday against Minnesota, and over the past four games that makes for a total of 164 over the last four games. Kitna, after Sunday’s game against Minnesota, complained that “We don’t have a lot of people in our boat right now,” meaning they have abandoned ship. Detroit has lost four in a row, during which time it has allowed 31.5 ppg.
The Detroit stop unit has been conspicuous by its absence at Ford Field in particular. Only two teams in the entire NFL give up more yardage at home than the Lions do. And Dallas has scored 34 ppg over its last six away from home, all of which has been victories.
These clubs have met six times in the last five seasons. In that time there have been three overs and three unders. But of most import might have been last year’s meeting, when Romo was playing (321 yards, two TD’s) and Mike Martz was on the job as offensive coordinator for Detroit. That game, played on New Year’s Eve, ended with Detroit winning 39-31.
Both these teams have been gravitating toward playing “over” the total recently, each exceeding the number in four of their last five games. And Dallas has played six straight road games over the total as well. They love to throw the ball, combining for 519 passing yards per game. And that means the clock will stop frequently.
We will go “over” that total, posted at 52 points in the Top Sportsbooks NFL football betting odds.
BetUS NFL football betting odds: Dallas -11, Total 52
NOTABLE STAT: Dallas scores 32.9 ppg – second in the NFL behind New England
KEY NFL FOOTBALL BETTING TREND: Dallas has played six straight road games over the total
NFL Free Pick: JAY’S PLAY: OVER 52 ** (Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
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