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NCAA Football Betting – Motor City Bowl Purdue at Central Michigan
Dec. 26 — Motor City Bowl Preview at Detroit, Central Michigan (8-5) vs. Purdue (7-5), 7:30 p.m. (ESPN)
LAST POINTSPREAD RESULT: Purdue visited Indiana and suffered a 27-24 loss to the Hoosiers as a one-point rod favorite. Central Michigan beat Miami of Ohio 35-10 as a three-point favorite in the Mid American Conference title game.
HEAD-TO-HEAD college football betting trends: PURDUE has won and covered all three meetings, averaging 50 ppg.
LAST MEETING: These teams met on September 15. Purdue led 38-0 at one point in the third quarter, and cruised to a 45-22 win. Purdue quarterback Curtis Painter was 29 for 39 and 360 yards, keying a Boilermaker offense that put up 583 total yards.
The Good News — Painter, the junior QB, threw for 3300 yards and 26 TD’s. The rushing game also provided some balance, with 136 yards a game. The team also ranked 23rd in the country in pass efficiency defense.
The Bad News — Purdue closed the season with consecutive losses to Penn State, Michigan State and Indiana. Purdue also ranked 100th in the nation in punt returns, averaging just over six yards a pop.
* PUR is 3-5-1 ATS in its last nine games
* PUR has won two of its last seven games SU
* PUR is 2-5 ATS in its last seven bowl games
* PUR is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 non-conference games
* PUR is 7-12-2 ATS in its last 21 games as a favorite
ABOUT CENTRAL MICHIGAN:
The Good News — Dan LeFevour is one of the more versatile QB’s in the country, throwing for 3360 yards and accounting for 40 TD’s between his passing and rushing. The Chippewas scored at a rate of 33.8 points per game.
The Bad News — Central Michigan, allowing 287 yards a game through the air, is 11th in the nation in pass defense. Nine teams scored 30 points or more against CMU, who also lost to Kansas 52-7 and Clemson by a 70-14 score. Overall, the Chippewas yielded 57 touchdowns.
CENTRAL MICHIGAN TRENDS:
* CMU has played seven OVERS in its last eight games
* CMU has won seven of its last nine games SU
* CMU is 1-3 ATS in its last four non-conference games
THE BOTTOM LINE: Central Michigan has certainly had a lot of trouble when moving out of its own conference into a higher level of competition – that much is clear from the losses to Kansas, Clemson and Purdue. It would be one thing if the CMU defense had gotten shored up, but that is obviously not the case. LeFevour is unquestionably a threat, and the Chippewas had a solid +6 turnover ratio this season. But we don’t see any material evidence to expect a change in the dynamic that saw Purdue score the only meaningful points in the previous meeting, and with balance in the offensive attack, the very capable Painter should again pick one of the nation’s weakest secondaries apart.
Motor City Bowl Free Pick:
We’re laying the chalk with Purdue, the 8.5-point favorite in the Top Sportsbooks NCAA football betting odds.
WHAT: The Motor City Bowl
WHO: Purdue Boilermakers (7-5 SU, 5-5-1 ATS) vs. Central Michigan Chippewas (7-5 SU, 5-4-2 ATS)
WHEN & WHERE: December 26, 7:30 PM ET at Ford Field in Detroit (artificial turf)
BETUS COLLEGE FOOTBALL BETTING LINE: PURDUE -8.5, Total: 71
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