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NFL Betting Trends – Home Dogs Week 14
With the playoffs approaching, teams in both conferences are jockeying for position. Two of the five home dogs will try to put themselves in a better position while the other three are merely playing spoiler.
Dallas Cowboys @ Detroit Lions (+13)
The Detroit Lions went in to Dallas late last season and won outright while Tony Romo was struggling late in his first season – can they do it again? The Dallas Cowboys are steaming hot right now and have had 10 days to prepare after stomping the Green Bay Packers on Monday night. There is an opportunity for a letdown and with the Lions being the more desperate team, I’d take the points.
NFL Free Picks: Detroit +13
San Diego Chargers @ Tennessee Titans (+1.5)
The Tennessee Titans are back to their familiar role – being an underdog. Laying points with the Titans has been a risky proposition this year but on the flipside, they continuously seem to thrive as a home underdog. The San Diego Chargers have been preying on turnovers to get wins and if their opponent doesn’t make any, they struggle to win. Philip Rivers has been simply awful this season and if the Titans shut down LaDainian Tomlinson and don’t commit turnovers, the Chargers will struggle.
NFL Free Picks: Tennessee +1.5
Minnesota Vikings @ San Francisco 49ers (+10)
The San Francisco 49ers handed the Carolina Panthers their first home victory in nine tries last week and now get the streaking Minnesota Vikings. Tarvaris Jackson’s success has helped key the Vikings playoff run as he has limited mistakes and given his team an opportunity to win. San Francisco won’t be able to run the ball against Minnesota and with a terrible passing game, they’ll likely again lose the time of possession battle and will require takeaways to stay in the game.
NFL Free Picks: Minnesota -10
Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets (+3.5)
The Cleveland Browns are clearly the better team here but are also in a tough spot. They are playing back-to-back road games and now travel to New York after playing in the desert last week. The Browns have proven to be a resilient bunch but so have the Jets since they switched to Kellen Clemens as their starter. The Jets have won two of their last three and the Browns better not assume anything. I don’t trust the Browns enough to lay more than a field goal on the road with them.
NFL Free Picks: New York +3.5
Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens (+10)
The Baltimore Ravens just played their Super Bowl – it will be difficult for them to get up for this game even though they are facing the Super Bowl champs. The Ravens exuded every shred of their ability and concentration last week to try and top the Patriots but failed to do so. Not only that, they are still stinging from their loss and have complained to the media about it. Indianapolis is the AFC’s second best team and Baltimore better focus – if Kyle Boller starts playing like the real Kyle Boller – the one who turns it over a lot – the Ravens won’t be in this game for long.
NFL Free Picks: Indianapolis -10
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (+6)
Derek Anderson is a quarterback drafted by the Baltimore Ravens that is now thriving elsewhere – can Chris Redman do the same? Redman was drafted by the Ravens, played in Bobby Petrino’s system at Louisville and now should probably get the start on Monday night. The New Orleans Saints still can’t run the ball with any consistency, which means that if the Falcons don’t turn it over, they will have ample opportunities to stick around – and maybe even win – this game.
NFL Free Picks: Atlanta +6
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