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NCAAF Betting – Champs Sports Bowl Michigan State at Boston College
Dec. 28 — Champ Sports Bowl Preview at Orlando, Fla., Boston College (10-3) vs. Michigan State (7-5), 5 p.m. (ESPN)
LAST POINTSPREAD RESULT: Michigan State won 35-31 at home against Penn State and got the cover as the three-point underdog. Boston College lost to Virginia Tech by a 30-16 score in the ACC title game on December 1, failing to cover as the 4.5-point underdog.
LAST MEETING: These teams last met in 1995, as Michigan State won 25-21 in lansing.
ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE :
The Good News — Michigan State has good offensive balance, averaging 200 yards rushing and 226 passing. QB Brian Hoyer was steady if not spectacular, throwing for 18 touchdowns while being intercepted only seven times. The running back duo of Jason Caulcrick and Javon Ringer had a combined 2157 yards for the Spartans.
The Bad News — The defense was suspect, giving up a shade under 27 points per game. Opposing offenses only had to gain 13.1 yards for every point they were able to score.
MICHIGAN STATE TRENDS:
* MSU covered four of its last six games
* MSU has played eight OVERS in its last nine games
* MSU is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games as an underdog
ABOUT BOSTON COLLEGE:
The Good News — BC quarterback Matt Ryan was among the very best in the country, and may be the first QB drafted by the NFL this year. Ryan threw for 4258 yards this season, with 28 TD passes. Running back Andre Callendar was solid, averaging 4.7 yards per carry to give the Eagles some needed balance. BC was tough against the run, surrendering just 2.2 yards a carry to opponents.
The Bad News — Pass defense was not a strength for the Eagles, as they gave up 268 passing yards a game. BC was at one point rated #2 in the country, after winning its first eight games, but after losing to Florida State, two more defeats – to Maryland and Virginia Tech – followed, leaving some to question how good this team really was.
BOSTON COLLEGE TRENDS:
* BC is 1-4 ATS in its last five games
* BC has played five of its last seven games UNDER the total
* BC has failed to cover its last four games as a favorite
* BC has won seven straight bowl games SU
* BC has covered six of its last seven bowl games
THE BOTTOM LINE: The concern here is that Boston College seems to have lost interest a little when they were no longer on target to reach the BCS title game. There are obviously positives on the BC side, including the run defense, which is stingy, and the recent bowl record, which shows seven straight wins, with six of those being covers. But the Eagles did not close strongly, while Michigan State at least got some momentum and confidence with wins in the final two games against Purdue and Penn State. Virginia Tech almost came up with a sweep of Boston College; they beat them the second time around by exhibiting some offensive balance. If Michigan State can run the ball just well enough to keep BC’s defense honest, it will give Brian Hoyer an opportunity to exploit a porous pass defense. We think they’ll be able to do that, and so we’re taking Michigan State, the 4.5-point underdog in the Top Sportsbooks NCAA football betting odds.
WHAT: Champs Sports Bowl
WHO: Michigan State Spartans (7-5 SU & ATS) vs. Boston College Eagles (10-3 SU, 6-6 ATS)
WHEN & WHERE: December 28, 5 PM ET at Florida Citrus Bowl Stadium in Orlando (grass)
BETUS COLLEGE FOOTBALL BETTING LINE: BOSTON COLLEGE -4.5, Total: 56
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