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Posted on 11/17/2007 8:50 AM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping Staff
NFL Sunday Night Betting – Can Athletic Bills Defense Slow Down Brady?
Our top sportsbook Preview – The New England Patriots come roaring out of a bye week to terrorize the league. With their eyes squarely focused on decimating the home stretch, the run begins in Orchard Park where they will face a feisty Buffalo team that loves to bust the spread apart. Can New England stay focused on a riley Bills team, or will they get consumed by their pursuit of history and get caught looking down the road?
New England Offense vs. Buffalo Defense
The New England offense is the best in the NFL and there is no point going over small facts here. They rock the league for 39.4 points per game, while Buffalo gives up an average of 18.4 points per game. Buffalo gives up an alarming 359.4 yards per game, but they keep opponents off the scoreboard.
The defense in Buffalo is athletic, agile and fast, and that could pose problems for New England as Brady might come under fire more often than not in the backfield. Buffalo won’t be caught trying to drop back defenders in to the box. They will use their speed to gun after Brady’s head.
But tipping the scales way in the favor of New England is their passing game, which leads the league with 296.3 passing yards. Terrence McGee has been lighting up top receivers around the league, but he’s facing a matchup nightmare with Randy Moss, who is over half-a-foot taller. Buffalo lacks the depth at corner to keep up with New England’s heavily used spread offense.
Buffalo Offense vs. New England Defense
J.P. Losman has secured the starting spot, but it won’t make a difference. Losman has been erratic and Marshawn Lynch is obviously not healthy. This stalwart defense is going to chew up this Buffalo offense. Knowing that Lee Evans is their only weapon will make game planning fairly simple for this defense.
Marshawn Lynch is an impossibly strong runner, but carrying the load against a stacked New England offense will be next to impossible. Buffalo’s offense passes for an abysmal 163.8 yards per game, and Losman is impossible to gauge. Buffalo may be 7-2 ATS on the season, but betting on Losman to cover against the Patriots is like betting on Britney to win “Parent of the Year” for 2007.
NFL Betting Trends
-New England is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games
-total has gone OVER in 4 of New England’s last 5 games
-New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games playing Buffalo
-Buffalo is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games
Final Verdict
This is an open-and-shut case for the Sunday Night Game. The Patriots betting faithful hit a speed bump against the Colts, but the Patriots will return to their spread crushing ways this weekend in prime time. The odds makers can’t spread the line farther than a little over two touchdowns because nobody would take the Bills. The Pats betting faithful should stay true to their Superbowl favorite Patriots this weekend as they obliterate the Bills.
New England Patriots (9-0) vs. Buffalo Bills (5-4)
Sunday, November 18th — Ralph Wilson Stadium, Buffalo — 8:15pm EST
Opening NFL Betting Line: New England -14.5 (46.5)
NFL Free Pick: New England 35 Buffalo 10
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