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Posted on 12/13/2007 4:05 PM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping Staff
NFL Betting Trends – Buffalo (7-6) at Cleveland (8-5)
Believe it or not, this matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Cleveland Browns has serious playoff implications for each team as the winner will greatly improve its chances of winning one of the two wild-card spots in the AFC.
The Browns can actually can clinch one of the AFC’s two wild-card spots with a victory over the Bills, combined with a Tennessee loss and a Denver loss or tie.
Each team has gone 6-2 in their last eight games and enters this contest coming off a victory. The Browns beat the New York Jets 24-18 last week while the Bills routed the pathetic Miami Dolphins 38-17.
Browns’ starter Derek Anderson has been spectacular this season, throwing for 3,247 yards, and 26 touchdown passes after replacing former teammate Charlie Frye after Week One.
Wide receiver Braylon Edwards has caught 65 passes for 1,106 yards and 13 TDs – the third-most in the NFL betting.
Bills rookie quarterback Trent Edwards has won five of his six starts and enters this matchup coming off the best game of his young career. Edwards threw four touchdown passes against the Dolphins last week
The Bills, (7-6 SU, 8-4-1 ATS, 6-7 O/U) are ranked 28th in overall offense, averaging 283.6 yards and 17.1 points per game and 30th in overall defense, allowing 363.8 yards and 22.4 points per game.
The Browns, (8-5 SU, 10-3 ATS, 9-3-1 O/U) are ranked ninth in overall offense, averaging 352.2 yards and 27.7 points per game and 32nd in overall defense, allowing 389.7 yards and 27.4 points per game.
Here is a look at tonight’s key trends, followed by my analysis and free NFL betting odds.
Key Bills Trends
The Bills are 12-2-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a ATS win.
The Bills are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games following a S.U. win.
The Bills are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Key Browns Trends
The Browns are 6-0 ATS in their last six games as a favorite.
The Browns are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.
The Browns are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. AFC.
Key Totals Trends
The Under is 4-1 in Bills last five games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
The Under is 4-1 in Bills last five games on grass.
The Over is 6-0-1 in Browns last seven games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
The Under is 4-0 in Browns last four games in December.
Key Head-to-Head Trends
There are no trends available.
Analysis: The best wager in this contest NFL betting community is to take the ‘Over’ 44.5 points as neither team plays much defense at all. I also say take the Browns to cover the spread in a winning effort as Cleveland head coach Romeo Crennel figures out a way to harass the Bills’ poised rookie quarterback into a couple of turnovers.
NFL Free Picks: Over 44.5 Total Points/Cleveland -5.5 Points
01:00 PM EST
Buffalo Bills +5½ -110
Cleveland Browns -5½ -110
Over 44½ -110
Under 44½ -110
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