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NCAA Football News NCAAF Previews NCAAF Sportsbook
Posted on 12/22/2007 10:55 AM
By: CappersPicks.com College Football Handicapping Staff
NCAAF Bowl Betting – Nevada Wolf Pack vs. New Mexico Lobos
Preview: The New Mexico Bowl will kick-off pitching two teams that basically have the same decal on their helmets. Can Nevada’s incredible offense overcome the ineffectiveness of their defense to stop anyone? Or will New Mexico thrive in their own backyard?
Nevada Offense vs. New Mexico Defense
Working out of the shotgun, Colin Kaepernick has whistled the Wolf Pack to a blistering 36.3 points per game while averaging 263.1 yards per game. The New Mexico pass defense allows 202.4 yards per game, but have not played any team worthy of note this season. Nevada and Kaepernick outmatch this sketchy secondary in a big way, and that has to get the smart betting investor licking his chops for an upset.
Behind Kaepernick is running-back Luke Lippincott who has had a fantastic season. The big back has carried the ball for 1,380 yards and 15 touchdowns this season and will be deployed to keep the Lobos defense honest. New Mexico has a decent rushing defense (129.2 yards against per game) but they will have to keep a sharp eye on Lippincott lest he run them over.
New Mexico Offense vs. Nevada Defense
In order to keep the high-octane offense of Nevada off the field, the Lobos will unleash Rodney Ferguson up the middle for much of the first half. The 226-pound runner lacks ideal speed, but is difficult to bring down and can wear down the front-seven of a shoddy Nevada defense.
Donavan Porterie is a game manager at the quarterback position and will not be called upon to try and take this game over. The Lobos average 222.2 passing yards, but much of that comes off of big plays that do not have too often. Nevada will pin the ears back on their safeties to prevent that from happening, while swarming their front-seven to slow down Ferguson from breaking big runs.
NCAAF Betting Trends
-Nevada is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
-total has gone UNDER in 5 of Nevada’s last 6 games
-new Mexico is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
-New Mexico is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
Final Verdict
New Mexico is simply not dynamic enough to take the pedal off its rushing attack. That being said, this game will be a lot lower in scoring then many people think. Lippincott and Ferguson will take center stage. However, the betting investor should take not of Kaepernick, who is a threat whenever he throws. The Wolf Pack will be able to grind Ferguson down, while keeping a slim lead all the way to a bowl victory and an upset.
Nevada Wolf Pack (6-6) vs. New Mexico Lobos (8-4)
Saturday, December 22nd — University Dome, Albuquerque — 4:30pm EST
Opening NCAA Football Line: New Mexico -3.5 (63)
NCAA Football Betting Free Pick: Nevada 28 New Mexico 24
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