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Posted on 12/12/2007 1:55 PM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping Staff
NFL Betting Week 15 – Bengals (- 10) vs. 49’ers (+ 10)
The Cincinnati Bengals have only one victory away from home but they’ll have a legitimate shot at cashing for the NFL betting family supporting them on Saturday, while claiming a rare road win against the San Francisco 49ers, who play host having won just one game played in front of the home folks this year.
Cincinnati’s 1-5 SU (straight up) road record and San Francisco’s 1-5 SU home mark creates a fascinating matchup. Not only have the Bengals flopped SU away from the jungle, they’ve also bruised bankrolls with a 2-4 ATS number when competing on enemy soil. Even worse, the 49ers have covered the spread in just one home game going 1-5 ATS.
Cincinnati is 5-8 SU and ATS on the year mainly due-in-part to a struggling defense that’s recently improved slightly. They did not allow a touchdown for the second time in three weeks in a 19-10 win over St. Louis on Sunday.
Overall, the Bengals are allowing a league’s fifth-worst 25.1 points per game and 348.2 yards. The unit is surrendering 116.5 yards on the ground and 231.7 through the air. The Bengals’ pass defense has yielded 24 touchdowns through the air to rank third-worst in the league in that department.
Cincinnati is much better offensively. They are posting 23.8 (7th-best in the NFL) points per game and 353.2 yards. Quarterback Carson Palmer leads an aerial attack that’s collecting 256.1 yards per game. The ground game has been limited to 97.2 yards because of injury to running back Rudi Johnson who’s been sidelined much of the season.
It’s been a rough 2007 season for Palmer, who has 21 touchdowns and 17 interceptions, one pick shy of his career high set as a rookie three years earlier.
The Bengals have been eliminated from postseason play for the 16th time in 17 seasons. This is will be their first visit to San Francisco since 1996, and they have lost their last four games there since a 21-3 win in 1974.
– Bengals are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 15.
– Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in December.
– Bengals are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
– Bengals are 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 road games.
– Bengals are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
With backup-turned-starter Trent Dilfer suffering a concussion in Sunday’s 27-7 loss to Minnesota, Shaun Hill will make his first career start Saturday. The 49ers also signed Heisman Trophy winner Chris Weinke on Wednesday to serve as Hill’s backup.
Last week, Hill completed 22-of-27 passes for 181 yards and one touchdown in relief of Dilfer, but the 49ers failed to overcome five turnovers in their fifth straight home loss.
It was also the seventh money-dropping performance in their last eight games overall. San Francisco is now 3-10 SU and ATS on the year.
The 49ers awful campaign has been manufactured by an offense that’s the worst in the NFL, having posted only 13.2 points per game, and a defense surrendering 24.0.
– 49ers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in December.
– 49ers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games.
– 49ers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
– 49ers are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
– 49ers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games.
– 49ers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
NFL odds list Cincinnati the 10-point favorites with a game total of 43.
– Bengals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.
– Bengals are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
– Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite.
– 49ers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog.
– 49ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
– 49ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
Analysis: This game may not be the most appealing of games this week, but there’s money to be made here, in particularly for Bengal backers. Cincinnati is a solid team offensively facing a San Francisco team that’s dismal across the board. The Bengals’ defensive will continue to improve versus an offense that’s the joke of the NFL. Take Cincinnati in this one and enjoy.
NFL Free Picks: Cincinnati Bengals -10
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