Auburn vs. Louisiana St. (LSU) Preview + Free Pick
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Posted on 10/19/2007 5:48:53 PM
College Football Wagering: Trends Say Auburn This Saturday
AUBURN at LOUISIANA ST.
The Louisiana State Tigers have a chance to sneak back into the BCS Championship race. The chances of either Ohio State or South Florida getting through the season without a loss are pretty dismal. LSU has a tough schedule that the BCS judges will have a hard time deciding against should the Fighting Tigers make it to through the rest of their season and the SEC Championship game unscathed.
I have my doubts that this is possible for the Fighting Tigers to do. They haven’t covered in their last 4 straight games and, as you shall read below, do not cover in general when facing another SEC team.
In fact the LSU has a very tough game this weekend versus another type of tiger – – the kind from Auburn. The BetUS line in this weekend’s Auburn vs. LSU game is LSU – 10.5 against the spread at home. But, every single trend regarding this game points to LSU not being able to cover that spread.
NCAA Football Betting Trend: Auburn is 17 – 4 against the spread in their last 21 games in October.
After their initial September malaise, Auburn usually picks it up due to better game-planning and better gelling along their offensive and defensive lines. Their quarterback tends to get into a rhythm in October as well. All of this means that Auburn improves as the season goes along.
NCAA Football Betting Trend: Auburn is 10 – 4 against the spread in their last 14 road games.
Auburn is an excellent road team as evidenced by their great win over Florida a few weeks back in the Swamp. They aren’t afraid to play on the road and tend to play with a chip on their shoulder.
NCAA Football Betting Trend: LSU is 4 – 10 against the spread in their last 14 conference games.
The main problem with this is that LSU, like USC, does very well against non-conference teams. When they have to play a conference team, they tend to not do as well for the simple fact that not only do the coaches in the SEC know each other very well but the players do as well. Most of the players on these SEC teams were recruited at the same time. They know each other’s tendencies.
LSU beats up on non-conference foes, and then odds-makers place a large line on them when they play conference foes. The NCAA football line is inevitably too large for NCAAF bettors to place a wager on LSU to cover.
This weekend’s game is a classic example of how trends can point to a team not covering a spread.
Free Pick: Take Auburn to beat the 10.5 against the spread versus LSU this weekend.
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