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NCAA Football News NCAAF Previews NCAAF Sportsbooks Posted on 11/30/2007 8:15 AM
By: CappersPicks.com College Football Handicapping Staff
NCAA Football Betting – Army at Navy
LAST POINTSPREAD RESULT: Both teams last played on November 17. Army lost at home to Tulsa by a 49-39 score, covering as a 15-point home dog, while Navy beat Northern Illinois 35-24, failing to cover as a 16.5-point home favorite.
HEAD-TO-HEAD college football betting trends:
* NAVY has won the last five meetings SU
* NAVY has covered four of the last five meetings
* The favorite has covered six of the last eight meetings
* Three of the last five meetings have gone OVER the total
LAST MEETING: Navy beat Army 26-14 last season, but did not cover as a 19.5-point favorite. The game went under the posted 50-point total. Navy had a relatively small yardage edge (275-253) and passed for just 11 net yards.
ABOUT ARMY:
The Good News — Not much to report, Lieutenant. Army has held opponents to six yards a pass attempt. Not that it will do them much good here. And the Cadets are fourth in the nation in punt returns. The 39 points scored against Tulsa was encouraging.
The Bad News — Army is 115th nationally in total offense, and has had a lot of difficulty stopping the run too, yielding 4.8 yards a carry and 229 yards a game. Those figures are almost sure to go up here.
ARMY TRENDS:
* ARMY has lost five consecutive games SU
* ARMY is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six games
* ARMY has played three of its last four games UNDER the total
ABOUT NAVY:
The Good News — The bowl-bound Middies lead the nation with 357 rushing yards a game, accumulated on the basis of 5.7 yards a carry. And Navy has scored 40 points a game this season.
The Bad News — Navy gave up just 24 points to anemic Northern Illinois last time out, but before that the defense had surrendered 51 ppg in the previous five. Navy has allowed 70% completions by the opposition – worst in the nation – along with 31 TD passes with just nine INT’s. The team is not balanced (just 119th in passing offense).
NAVY TRENDS:
* NAVY has won 16 of its last 23 home games SU
* NAVY has played seven of its ten games OVER the total this year
* NAVY is 1-5 ATS as a favorite in ’07
Free Betting Pick: THE BOTTOM LINE:
Navy’s ground attack is not likely to slow up here against an Army defense that can not stop anyone on the ground. We realize that Paul Johnson’s Middie defense has not performed either, and that would be more of a factor of Army was able to execute in the areas of its game where it could exploit Navy. But with Carson Williams only 52% on the season, with an 11-12 TD-INT ratio, that’s not really the case. And Army’s stop unit has been God-awful as well, giving up 530 ypg over the last four and a combined 841 rushing yards against Rutgers and Air Force. Navy at least has one world-class unit working for it, so we’ll lay it with the Middies, a 14.5-point favorite in the Top Sportsbooks college football betting odds.
WHO: Army Cadets (3-8 SU, 4-5-1 ATS) vs. Navy Midshipmen (7-4 SU, 3-7 ATS)
WHEN & WHERE: Saturday, Noon ET at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD (Artificial turf)
BETUS COLLEGE FOOTBALL BETTING LINE: NAVY -14.5, Total 65
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