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NCAA Football News NCAAF Previews NCAAF Sportsbooks
Posted on 12/18/2007 6:25 PM
By: CappersPicks.com College Football Handicapping Staff
NCAAF Wagering – New Mexico Bowl Wolfpack (+ 3) vs. Lobos (- 3)
The Nevada Wolfpack and the New Mexico Lobos meet in Albuquerque, New Mexico in the New Mexico Bowl. Hmm…sounds like a home game for the Lobos to me, but, hey, a bowl game is a bowl game, right?
What’s interesting about this game is the spread. Three points is a traditional home-field advantage spread. Are odds-makers saying that these two teams are too close in talent for them to make a decided call on this game? I don’t think so. I think that they are afraid that not enough action will go down on this game. Because of that most odds-makers have gone with a traditional spread.
That’s not a bad thing for college football bettors. Before I get into who I think will win this game versus the spread, let’s take a look at a few betting trends:
The Nevada Wolfpack are 6 and 1 against the spread versus a team with a winning record.
The Nevada Wolfpack are 4 and 1 against the spread in their last 5 games as an UNDERDOG on the road.
The New Mexico Lobos are 4-12-1 against the spread in their last 17 games as a favorite.
When handicapping college bowl games, the best thing to do is to look at the schedule and see how both teams have done against top competition. For the Lobos their best win was at the beginning of the year when they beat the Pac-10 “powerhouse” Arizona Wildcats. The Cats started to come on towards the end of the year, so the Lobos win against them at the beginning of the year has little impact on how I think this game will unfold.
The Wolfpack’s almost win versus the Hawaii Warriors was actually quite impressive. They lost by only two points to Hawaii, a BCS bowl game participant, and that makes me ponder how they will do versus the Lobos in what amounts a road game.
I believe that Nevada has the ability to not only beat this spread but to win this game outright. These two teams are very close together in terms of talent. The Wolfpack lost to Hawaii and then, due to a Hawaii hangover probably, lost a very close game to a very bad San Jose State team. But after that loss the Wolfpack ended their regular reason by shipping Lousiana Tech by 39 points.
I expect New Mexico to be better than Louisiana Tech, but Nevada is coming off of a very impressive win and should be able to carry that momentum into this bottom of the barrel bowl game.
The NCAA football betting line is Nevada Wolfpack + 3 against the spread versus the New Mexico Lobos in the New Mexico Bowl in Albuquerque, New Mexico.
Free Pick: Even though this amounts to a home game for the Lobos, I like the Wolfpack because of that sneaky good loss versus the Hawaii Warriors.
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