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NHL Furious Free Picks 2008 – Monday Edition
Our Sportsbooks: Phoenix Coyotes (28-24-4) vs. Dallas Stars (34-20-5)
Monday, February 11th — American Airlines Center — 7:00pm EST
NHL Betting Line: Dallas -210
The Coyotes backed up my favorable comments about them last week by going 1-4 SU in their last five games. See if I ever trust them again. So why is this game even worth researching? Well, because the Coyotes have torn the Stars apart in the last two games by outscoring Dallas 10-2 for two victories.
Phoenix hasn’t been losing games because of their inability to score. They average 2.75 goals per game and blast 30.70 shots on net per game. It’s their defensive lapses that have been killing them. They allow 2.80 goals per game and have been vulnerable to strong skating teams like Nashville because their checking lines don’t have the speed to keep up.
The good news? Dallas isn’t that fast. They score with meticulous, time crunching, possession hockey. The Stars boast the fourth best defense in the NHL with 2.5 goals against and play extremely well at home. They are seventh in home scoring with 3.0 goals per game. On top of that, they have the best penalty killing the league with 87.3 percent.
But as much as the Dallas betting faithful might love Dallas in this one, any money line above 200 is hard to take. Dallas is on a 5-game winning streak, and have stifled their opponents to 1.5 goals per game in the process. In the meantime, their offense has rifled in 3.2 goals per game during that stretch. But bubbles burst in the NHL fairly quickly, and to surprising teams like Phoenix which is due to break out of their slump.
The argument here is less that the Stars are going to win, but more that a small wager on the Coyotes can reap huge rewards. The NHL is predictable in its unpredictability, and Phoenix is the kind of team that Dallas struggles against because of their favorable combination of fore-checking size and stiff goal tending. Dallas simply doesn’t get a lot of quality shots on net, and Ilya Bryzgalov has been strong in net, despite the dessert dog’s records. Bet on Phoenix on the NHL money line.
NHL Free Pick: Phoenix +175
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